Saturday Racebook: Nathan Exelby’s tips and analysis for Eagle Farm

The Courier Mail racing editor Nathan Exelby and the bookmaking team from Ladbrokes pinpoint the horses to back and the ones to avoid at Eagle Farm.

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Racing editor Nathan Exelby looks for the winners at Eagle Farm on Saturday with help from the Ladbrokes bookmaking team.

NATHAN’S SUMMARY

BEST BETS

Mandela, Race 6 $4.20

Born Bad, Race 9, $5.50

VALUE

Just Orm, Race 2, $7

Mosshiki, Race 5 $7

MULTIPLES

Boxed quinella, Race 9

6 Happy Hooves, 10 Clockwise, 14 Born Bad

LADBROKES SUMMARY

BEST BACKED

Guntantes, Race 3 $1.70-$1.55

OTHERS

Happy Hooves, Race 9, $26-$14

Picka Plum, Race 4, $5-$3.80

Anders, Race 1, $5-$4.20

LAY OF THE DAY

Spurcraft, Race 8, $2.70

BEST BET

Churning, Race 6, $5

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Mandela should be hard to hold out in the Girls Day Out Raceday Plate. Picture: Getty Images

EAGLE FARM

Track: Good (4). Weather: Mostly sunny, 33C.

RACE 4 (2.12pm): TAB BENCHMARK 80 (2206m)

NATHAN SAYS: Picka Plum is entitled to be top pick. Super effort two starts back in this grade off a decent break, then may have been flat-footed when rolled at short odds back to 1800m last time. This trip suits better for Jake Bayliss, who has won on her previously, but she’s short enough now. Equipped is going well, but suspect this is tougher. Drumadoir is the other one in the market and chance again, but same story as Equipped. Going with Magstock ($8), who is a bit unknown at the trip, but think he’s the best horse in this race. Hopefully he can stay in touch and be close enough when heads turn for home. Sir Barnabus ($9) had gone off the boil a little, but was good last week when not getting a lot of room in much stronger race.

LADBROKES SAY: Ordinary looking race, but they have launched into Picka Plum, who is $5 into $3.70. No money for Equipped ($4.80), who attracted all the money last time. Drumadoir friendless as well and she’s $5 out to $5.50.

THE PLAY: MAGSTOCK and SIR BARNABUS at the odds.

RACE 5 (2.52pm): GRAND PRIX STAKES (2206m)

NATHAN SAYS: The Sydney form nearly always holds up when they come up for our feature races. Prefer Chains Of Honour from the quartet of NSW-trained runners here. Trialled well enough then was solid at Hawkesbury. Raced like this trip will suit. Mission Phoenix was super tough winning at Kembla, but ratings out of NSW suggest Chains comes through by far the better race. Smart Meteor beat Don’t Waiver, Tears Of Love, Southern Swing and Mosshiki last time and may well improve further. It was a very tidy effort going 1300-2000m. But Mosshiki started $2.80 there, travelled beautifully and then lost all chance on the turn. Previous win was good and wouldn’t surprise to see him bounce back strongly at $7.50 this time with Michael Rodd up.

LADBROKES SAY: Hasn’t been popular with the punters yet. A few specs for the Sydney horses Chains Of Honour ($3.40-$3.30) and Mission Phoenix ($3.70-$3.40). No money for the local horses, but we are giving Smart Meteor ($7) a good chance to go back to back.

THE PLAY: CHAINS OF HONOUR on top but want MOSSHIKI on side at the bigger odds this time.

Mosshiki could spring a surprise at good odds. Picture: Trackside Photography

RACE 6 (3.32pm): GIRLS DAY OUT RACEDAY PLATE (1200m)

NATHAN SAYS: Mandela has been gelded since we last saw him at the races. Threw away a race or two in his first prep, showing plenty of ability, but just not finishing off. Ridden out the back in a recent trial, he really trucked home strongly to the line. Should be hard to hold out here. Michael Costa is aiming Malahide at a rich Class 4 race in a couple of weeks, so she won’t be far off her top here. Easily beat Boomtown Lass first up last prep, before later failing at the mile. Was stiff against older mares before a spell. The market loves Churning, but she doesn’t deliver too often. Ignore last start when she bucked. This suits better.

LADBROKES SAY: They are keen on Mandela, who has been $4.60 into $4.20. He looked really well placed last Friday when the race was washed out, so maybe a few that steamed in last week have backed up again. We think he’s short enough now from the awkward barrier. Specking for Churning $6 into $5.50. We think it might have found the right race. Malahide has been $6.50 into $6.

THE PLAY: Keen on MANDELA and market is there to make MALAHIDE a winner in the book as well.

RACE 7 (4.12pm): HAMILTON HOTEL HCP (1400m)

NATHAN SAYS: Mewstone Rock was right out of luck – again – last time, when powering to the line. Little doubt she’s much better suited on the bigger track at 1400m here. She’s an eight-year-old, but John Symons and Sheila Laxon have her flying. Cruze looks a big danger. Run off his legs at 1200m last week, but back up now over 1400m, which is going to be much more to his liking. Steph Thornton takes over, bringing him in with 57.5kg. Bellaria was unwanted in betting but ran well two weeks ago. Finished in front of Snitch there and that horse would be running nice and short in this. Sofie’s Gold Class can do a lot better on this track down in grade. Was just run off her legs first up.

LADBROKES SAY: Mewstone Rock was backed early and was $3.40 into $3, but is back out again to $3.30, with the push coming for Cruze ($6 into $5). Also some specking for the likely leader Sister Patti ($21-$18). We think Mewstone is short enough here.

THE PLAY: MEWSTONE ROCK on top and thinking you will get better odds than what’s currently on offer.

Tactical Advantage is a big hope in the Falvelon Quality. Picture: AAP

RACE 8 (4.52pm): FALVELON QUALITY (1200m)

NATHAN SAYS: Would love to see Spurcraft win for Charlotte White and earn a Magic Millions shot … he’s going to look the winner for a long way, but how he handles that last 100m is the big question. Isaurian ($5.50) is also unproven at 1200m, but he might be a better horse now resuming as a gelding. Looked sharp in the trial. Tactical Advantage ($6.50) has been back to his best at his past couple and he’s a big hope again.

LADBROKES SAY: Spurcraft has been popular since markets went up and is $2.90 to $2.70. Going to 1200m up the Eagle Farm straight is a different story to 1050m at Doomben and we have to take him on. Sandbar has been the one popular at a bigger price ($16-$11), but he’s had a few chances. The other one, who was popular first up, and they have gone in again is Lim’s Lightning ($51-$31). We give it a rough hope. It went back to last first up and his last 200m was his best work. Should sit a lot closer here and can finish over the top.

THE PLAY: Happy to watch the spectacle, but if forced, would back ISAURIAN and TACTICAL ADVANTAGE.

RACE 9 (5.32pm): PROVINCIAL SERIES FINAL (1300m)

NATHAN SAYS: Seven of them come through the Mr Strachan race at the Sunshine Coast. A few hard luck stories and not a lot between them. Born Bad didn’t run there, but did give a hiding to Precipitate (who was second in the Sunshine Coast race) and others when strolling home at the Gold Coast last time out. Ran quick time, the runner up has won either side of that and unlike most of these, seems to have a bit of upside. Given absolutely no favours at his previous run when fourth to Macewen either. The John and Chris Meagher (pictured) stable are having success by spacing the runs of their horses like this and think he only needs even luck to run over these.

LADBROKES SAY: Happy Hooves is the one they have launched into here. He’s been $26 into $14 off a last start Dalby defeat. However, this is like a Country Cup type race and with Rodd and Tony Gollan (pictured) teaming up, he’s been the popular one. Love Squirrels is the favourite ($5.50-$5) but not a lot of money around for her or any of the others.

THE PLAY: Anthony Allen just needs to give BORN BAD a fair run and he can run over them.

Trainer Bjorn Baker has dropped Savvy Valentino back to his own age group for his assignment at Eagle Farm. Picture: AAP

FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH

“He is back against his own age group and he is fit from recent racing. There doesn’t look to be any other leaders in the race.” BJORN BAKER (Savvy Valentino) Race 5.

“He should have beaten Profit over 1800m and his second last time over 2000m was strong, especially as he had 59kg. He meets them much better at the weights (Saturday).” STUART KENDRICK (Don’t Waiver) Race 5.

“This horse has no pace at all, but he can stay.” GERALD RYAN (Chains Of Honour) Race 5.

“We went through the statistics for the new track and you can sit wide and win. She needs to run so she will start.” MATT DUNN (Lady Banff) Race 1.

“He appears spot-on. It wasn’t a major problem (the blood count that kept him out of the Phelan Ready) but we have a bit of time to get him into the Millions, so we didn’t want to risk him.” TRENT EDMONDS (The Drinks Cart) Race 1.

“He has had several jumpouts and a run now (since the tie back operation) where he has been calm. The Falvelon carries a wildcard to the Magic Millions Snippets and I would him to get in the race for his owners.” CHARLOTTE WHITE (Spurcraft) Race 8.

“We have been looking at Magic Millions day with the Snippets or the Cup as his race, but we will get past (today) first.” STEVE O’DEA (Scallopini) Race 8.

“I love the claim off the light weight. I probably just lean to him of the three.” TONY GOLLAN (Pizonie) Race 2. Gollan also has Invincible Al and Just Orm in the race.