Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy: Newcastle preview

Racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the best chances on the nine-race card at the inaugural The Hunter meeting at Newcastle.

• Davo’s tips: Tactical way to make money

• Weekend best bets: Bobbing worth a dip

Racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the best chances on the nine-race card at the inaugural The Hunter meeting at Newcastle.

NEWCASTLE

Track: Good 4. Rail: True.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 1, No.2: Sir Pippin

Race 5, No.6: Indy Car

Race 7, No.2: Bobbing

RAY’S BEST

Race 4, No.5: Let’s Rebelle

Race 5, No.1: Rule The World

Race 9, No.1: Testifier

R1 (1.20pm): AUSTRALIAN BLOODSTOCK HCP (1850m)

Dufficy: This is a competitive race. I don’t mind Sir Pippin. I thought he did enough first-up when he didn’t have much luck in the straight. Invariably he lifts after having a run back and two of his four wins have been second-up. The horse I’m wary of is House Of Cartier. She has had a couple of runs back over unsuitable distances, she is up to her right distance now and is a big improver here. Rapido Chaparro only has to recover from the 2400m race last start to take control again. Falcon Island is on a back-up and is very genuine.

Thomas: Rapido Chaparro is back in his right grade and distance after his unplaced run in the City Tattersalls Cup. His previous form around 2000m was impressive and he will take catching here. I agree with your thoughts on Sir Pippin, Ronnie. I can’t add much more except he is going to be very hard to beat. Falcon Island is racing well and deserves consideration. Master Shuhood ran well second-up behind Rapido Chaparro at Port Macquarie and there’s improvement to come.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Falcon Island $4-$2.60 ($3,200 @ $3.40, $800 @ $3.40)

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Can Rule The World maintain his unbeaten record in the Spring Stakes? Picture: AAP

LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS

R2 (1.55pm): MAX LEES CLASSIC (900m)

Dufficy: All trialled well and this is a bit of a throw at the stumps. I think we will more confidence after we see them parade in the yard, Ray. I must say I was taken by Tilia Rose. She did run a close second to Dame Giselle in her first trial and actually looked to go better. She impressed then in her second trial winning with something in hand. Team Snowden ensure their two-year-olds are educated well and I’m leaning her way. Zeftabrook is trained by Kris Lees and he would be very keen to win this race named in his Dad’s honour. She is the one with the barrier draw and she will find the fence which is important over the Newcastle 900m. Redoute’s Image just needs a touch of luck from her outside draw and Panna Cotta is a huge tip.

Thomas: I’ve read this race the same way with Tilia Rose on top. I’ve liked her trials and she gives the impression she will be strong late. But this is a race where you can make a case for any of the seven starters. I have Dominant Lady in my numbers. The stable was keen to get her into the Golden Gift last week where she was made an emergency which indicates they have a very good opinion of her. Hinchbeast and Redoute’s Image come off impressive trials.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Panna Cotta $4-$3.50, Redoute’s Image $4-$3.60 ($500 @ $3.70, $500 @ $3.60)

R3 (2.30pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1300m)

Dufficy: I can see improvement from Texas Storm with winkers on. He didn’t run 1600m two starts back then lost the speed of the race over 1200m here last start but charged home late. He’s drawn barrier one over 1300m and can race closer. He is good value. Smart Moove was strong and impressive winning at Dubbo last start. She has returned a much better mare and will run well. Powertrain is a lightly raced three-year-old with upside. Denmiss is an honest mare and her form shapes up well here.

Thomas: Smart Moove is in great form after a dominant Dubbo win. She is well drawn and should be able to settle in the front half of the field, poised to strike from the turn. She is short enough but I can’t tip against her. Axella is better suited at 1400m and should run well. Powertrain is promising and comes off an impressive first-up win at Muswellbrok. Luff is not out of this, either.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Maid Marilyn $26-$21, Tully Toff $15-$9.50, Weather Channel $11-$9.50

Boo Bailey's cartoon tip for Newcastle

R4 (3.05pm): SHARP ELECTRONICS HCP (1400m)

Dufficy: So Taken is very well weighted. She has had five weeks and a trial since not running the 1600m in the Angst Stakes. She has drawn the inside barrier, gets the claim and there is a lot to like about her here. Lucciola Belle was a bit unlucky over 1200m last start. She did run second to Noble Boy in the Country Championships Final in April. We know she is talented enough. Vitesse came back in trip last start and it didn’t suit. She is a 1400m specialist who should get across, find the lead and be hard to beat. Pinup Miss caught the eye in a weaker race last start and is a chance with no weight.

Thomas: Let’s Rebelle each-way appeals to me. She’s an improving mare with a good win strike-rate and her last start win in strong grade at Muswellbrook was very impressive. She gets in well after the claim and she is very backable around the $13 mark. I concede So Taken is the one to beat. With even luck in running, she will be in the finish. Super Cyclone is an improving mare up to her right trip today. Miss Redoble led for a long way when a close fifth in a stakes race at Hawkesbury last start and she looks well placed here.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: So Taken $5.50-$4.40, Miss Redouble $7.50-$5

R5 (3.45pm): SPRING STAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: I like Indy Car. He broke his maiden in very impressive style here on debut then started in the market behind Rule The World when fourth at Rosehill. Indy Car had legitimate excuses last start, he’s desperate to get out to 1600m and from a good draw hopefully he can race closer. Kavalmo is the big danger. I think the blinkers and dry track suits and he was competitive in the Carbine Club Stakes on Derby Day, which is always a good form race. Rule The World has won three in a row and its hard to knock a winner. He is short enough but will be hard to run down. Bright Rubick has really turned the corner. She was amazing breaking the track record at Muswellbrook last start.

Thomas: Rule The World was first-up at 1400m when he scored a determined win at Rosehill, maintaining his unbeaten record. He gives the impression the 1600m suits but he is getting to this distance quickly and he is well found in the market. Rule The World will need to be on his game but I’m relying in his class and ability. Convinced is an improving type certain to run a strong 1600m. He is good value today. Indy Car looks promising and Kavalmo also makes plenty of appeal.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Rule The World $2.80-$2.90-$2.15, Indy Car $11-$7

Graff has the best form lines heading into The Hunter and will be hard to beat. Picture: AAP

R6 (4.20pm): THE HUNTER (1300m)

Dufficy: Terrific race. There are differing opinions but I feel Graff sets up perfectly here. He is adaptable, finds 1300m on his home track, has the best form lines and has trialled well. There are a lot of positives with Graff. I can see a couple of long-shots running well. Fiesta was very good first-up then had a few little excuses last start in the Pierata race. She meets Le Romain 6.5kg better at the weights from their last meeting. Jonker may be $51 but he shouldn’t be. He over-achieved in the Golden Eagle at 1500m last start and he’s back to 1300m, not as much pressure from an inside draw, I have to include him. Brave Song is ready to produce a peak performance.

Thomas: Graff does look the one. As you pointed out, Ronnie, he ticks all the boxed. He has been competitive in the best sprint races this spring and gets his opportunity here. Renewal is a horse I’ve always had time for and his three Melbourne runs this spring have all been very good efforts. He’s going to get the right run from gate two. Brave Song will be given them a big start from the turn but he will be charging home. Le Romain ran a much better race in the Redzel Stakes and although he is better suited over further, he is the class runner in this race.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Graff $4-$3.50-$3.60 ($500 @ $3.90), Tactical Advantage $15-$9.50 ($200win x $500place @$9.50/$3.20), Savatiano $9-$5

R7 (5pm): PRIME 7 HCP (1300m)

Dufficy: Bobbing is a laid-back character but he just keeps delivering. I thought he was enormous first-up running third in The Kosciuszko, he has good second-up statistic, and he only has to reproduce that first-up run to nearly win this race. Outrageous did the job well winning second-up. He seems to map well again but I thought the bookies have him short enough. Into The Abyss should be suited by a bit of speed in this race and You Make Me Smile will take catching.

Thomas: Outrageous controlledthe race and forged clear for a comfortable win at Rosehill last start. He was only second-up and carried a big weight but won with authority. He’s well placed here after the claim and from the good draw. Should get every chance. Bobbing was the unlucky runner in The Kosciuszko. He gets back in his races and needs things to go his way but with clear galloping room he will be hard to hold out. Gresham finds it hard to win but rarely runs a bad race. You Make Me Smile is another with a very good chance.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Bobbing $6-$4.20 ($700 @ $4.20), Outrageous $4.60-$3.20 ($500 @ $4.40, $2,000 @ $4.20, $2,000 @ $3.60)

Bobbing has been well backed to win at Newcastle. Picture: AAP

R8 (5.40pm): PREMIUM MEATS HCP (1500m)

Dufficy: I’m very keen on Juventus. He has had excuses at his last two runs and now he is on his home track from the rails barrier. If he jumps cleanly, he seems to map well and I think this could be his day. The danger is Mushaireb. I’m a little worried about the 49-day break since he ran so well first-up. Mr Reckless showed great improvement second-up but I would have liked him to be stepping up in distance now. Strome never runs a bad race and she will hit the line well.

Thomas: I know the stable wants to keep Mushaireb’s runs spaced and it was a deliberate tactic to go at least a month between races. He was due to start last week but had a slight elevated temperature last week. I’m happy to be with him here. Juventus is going to get every chance from the favourable draw and will be hard to beat. Strome wasn’t beaten far last start and should be at her peak now after two runs from a spell. Tahsin will find this tougher but there was a lot to like about his last start win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Juventus $6-$4.20 ($1,000 @ $4.40), Soldier Of Love $8-$5

R9 (6.15pm): HUNTER CIVILAB HCP (1200m)

Dufficy: I can’t believe Coterie is the price he is here. He has needed those two runs from a spell and this looks a nice set-up for him. He’s ready to run a race around the $15 mark. Everyone saw Testifier last start, he is still looking for a run and went to the line hard held. He is going to have a lot of supporters. Leviathan looked terrific in that trial and it did take Funstar all day to beat him last preparation. He has a big preparation ahead towards the Magic Millions, so he won’t be peaking right up here but his talent might get him home. Malea Magic is an under-rated mare.

Thomas: Testifier was unbeaten going into that Randwick race first-up where he was never tested at any stage. He’s a talented horse drawn to advantage here. Leviathan looks very promising, the form around him stands up and rates highly. Coterie has put two good runs together since resuming and Blazing Miss is another racing in very good form.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Testifier $6-$4.80 ($400win x $1,000place @ $6/$2.25, $500 x (2) @ $5), Leviathan $6-$2.50 ($400ew @ $5/$2, $600 @ $3.80, $1,000 @ $3.20), Burning Crown $11-$7

SATURDAY EXTRA

SHAYNE O’CASS’ TOP PICKS

KEMBLA GRANGE

BEST BET

DAUMIER (Race 2, No.4)

Tavistock colt has plenty of talent and just as many excuses for his first-up failure in town when in the market. Has made amends since in a recent trial. Stick with him.

NEXT BEST

CHATEAUX PARK (Race 3, No.4)

Jason Coyle-trained colt by Ocean Park making his debut off some very quiet trials, but it wasn’t hard to spot that he has something to give.

VALUE

GREAT NEWS (Race 5, No.7)

Kim Waugh bred, owned and trained filly has been outstanding in winning her two trials. Drawn one and looks a ready-made racehorse.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 7, Race 6: 1,3,5,8, Race 7: 1,4,6, Race 8: 3,4,7.

BATHURST

BEST BET

JUST TOO GOOD (Race 2, No.1)

Gary Portelli-trained son of All Too Hard was good on debut when fifth at Acton in July last year and all the the lead up trials have been good.

NEXT BEST

SAINT AY (Race 3, No.6)

Only has to run up to what he produced here at the 2000m and he will be winning. Expect short odds but is clearly the one to beat.

GUNDAGAI

BEST BET

VERTEX (Race 6, No.5)

Ran a very good race in a TAB Highway prior to a reasonably solid performance the next time out. Has Kayla Nisbet to help her sweep home.

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy: Newcastle preview