Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis

Verry Elleegant was no match for Colette first-up but Ron Dufficy and Ray Thomas agree the Caulfield Cup champ will turn the tables in the Chipping Norton.

Colette was too good for Kolding and Verry Elleegant in the Apollo Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

The Saturday Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy debate the big-race chances at Royal Randwick and Flemington on Saturday.

SUGGESTED BETS

DUFF’S BEST

Race 9, No.5: ZAKAT

Race 4, No.10: CRIADERAS

VALUE

Race 7, No.1: MONTEFILIA

RAY’S BEST

Race 9, No.5: ZAKAT

VALUE

Race 5, No. 9: TRICKY GAL

R1 (1.15pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1000m)

Ron Dufficy: I’m finding it hard to get away from the favourite Water Dove. She gets blinkers on and has had a five-week freshen since suffering her first defeat behind Art Cadeau. That looks the right form for this race. The only thing that can stop her is a wet track, which she hasn’t seen. Leo
resumes without a trial but he did something similar last preparation and won at Randwick on a heavy track. Mr Magical gets the winkers on and just missed first-up on a wet track. Superior Witness wasn’t far away first-up in the Art Cadeau race and he handles wet tracks.

Ray Thomas: Water Dove impressed at her first two starts before starting favourite when edged out by the talented Art Cadeau over 1100m on this track. The barrier suits and she should get her chance. I’ve also got Leo and Mr Magical as the main dangers. I don’t mind one at big odds, Social Smile. She’s on the quick back-up after running fourth in fast time at Queanbeyan on Monday and is bred to handle rain-affected tracks.

R2 (1.50pm): SKYLINE STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: Captivant looks trained up. He’s had two trials, he gets blinkers, they look serious with him today. He had excuses when he failed on a wet track before his break but he has trialled well in those conditions. I’m happy to go his way. Shaquero won the Magic Millions and has won a trial since. He hasn’t raced on a wet track, although he did win a Canterbury trial on a very wet track. Hilal impressed finishing fast to win on debut on the Kensington track and should be running on strongly. Head Of State might be more a Champagne Stakes-style of horse but he certainly has talent.

Thomas: Captivant can get English jockey Tom Marquand’s Sydney riding stint off to a good start. I loved his recent trial win and the Snowden stable has always rated this colt. Shaquero has to be the main danger coming off his Magic Millions win. He looked sharp in his Rosehill trial win. We’ve got the same top four with midweek winners Hilal and Head Of State confronted by a steep rise in class but both are promising colts.

Four Moves Ahead (white and red) has the quality to overcome recent setbacks. Picture: Getty Images

R3 (2.25pm): SWEET EMBRACE STAKES (1200m)

Dufficy: There is not much between these two top fillies Four Moves Ahead and Mallory. It’s not ideal for Four Moves Ahead to have had two recent setbacks but she has so much quality and if John Sargent is happy to run her, I want to be on her back. She has drawn the middle of the field, which gives her an advantage over Mallory, who has drawn wide. In saying that, Mallory has had a lovely soft trial since impressively winning the Widden Stakes and she is a major threat. Northuldra was good behind Mallory and considering she had only one trial going into that debut race, she can only improve. She’s All Class had excuses from a wide draw in the Magic Millions when she ran a good third, but she has drawn wide again and needs a lot to go right.

Thomas: I’ve gone with Mallory. I take your point about the barriers but the big field will generate early speed and Mallory should be able to find cover early before unleashing her finishing surge. Mallory has the race fitness edge off her Widden Stakes win, while Four Moves Ahead has had an interrupted campaign. If Four Moves Ahead wins this race, she is right back into the Golden Slipper campaign. Robodira is sneaking under the radar here and she is a quality filly who has trialled nicely. She’s All Class has ability but that barrier draw hasn’t done her any favours.

R4 (3.05pm): LIVERPOOL CITY CUP (1300m)

Dufficy: Criaderas is a nice horse. He’s had a trial and a gallop between races to get ready for this race. He is trying to qualify for the Doncaster Mile so they need to get some wins on the board. I think he can start his campaign off well, he will be hard to hold out. All Saints’ Eve is good odds. She has had two trials, won on a heavy track when resuming last preparation and was good running fourth in the Golden Eagle on a heavy track. She might be the forgotten runner. With Discharged, what you see is what you get — he will give a bold sight on speed. Trumbull is a terrific fresh horse, handles all track conditions and with any luck will be in the finish.

Thomas: The lightweights Criaderas and Discharged will be hard to beat. They will be at opposite ends of the field early with Discharged on speed and Criaderas at the rear of the field. It will be a nervous watch for Criaderas fans but this emerging Godolphin sprinter will be powering home — he runs through a brick wall if he needs to — and I feel he will catch Discharged. Greyworm likes Randwick and will be in this race for a long way. Trumbull has impressed in his trials and he will be hard to beat.

R5 (3.45pm): GUY WALTER STAKES (1400m)

Dufficy: I was really hot on Sweet Deal on a drier track but I’m sticking with her as she has learned to handle rain-affected tracks a bit better. If John Thompson is happy enough with the track conditions and runs Sweet Deal, I will be with her as the speed map is way in her favour. Emeralds is a good mare and I liked the way she worked to the line first-up in a race not run to suit her. She’s had a soft trial since and is sure to be running home well. Icebath usually gets better with a run or two under her belt but no knock at all here. She is in the finish, for sure. Tricky Gal doesn’t know how to run a bad race and should improve off her first-up run as well. This is an even race.

Thomas: Tricky Gal nearly caused an upset when she closed late on boom Godolphin mare Tailleur and just missed when resuming in the Triscay Stakes. She is an underrated mare, fitter for that super comeback run and bursting to win at stakes level. Icebath was third in the Tailleur race, strips fitter here and likes wet tracks. Sweet Deal had a terrific spring campaign and she is trialling well. Reelem In Ruby was competitive in the Triscay Stakes after a long time out of racing so she can only improve.

Tricky Gal (right) nearly caused a boilover against Tailleur (left) in the Triscay Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

R6 (4.25pm): CHIPPING NORTON STAKES (1600m)

Dufficy: I have a slight leaning to Verry Ellegant over Colette. I know people will look at the Apollo Stakes result and say how can she beat Colette but I feel Verry Elleegant will come on from that run — she was resuming off a Melbourne Cup and just didn’t have the “ping” in her legs. We will see more improvement from her. Colette showed an amazing burst of acceleration to win the Apollo and only has to hold that form to be the one to beat again. Kolding gets all the favours but I wanted it dry for him. In saying that, his two brilliant runs back have been on soft 7 tracks. Master Of Wine will be doing good things late.

Thomas: I see it the same way. Verry Elleegant didn’t have the best of luck in the Apollo — she wouldn’t have beaten Colette anyway — but I liked the way she stretched out late. The Randwick mile suits and she will be finishing strongly. Colette left her rivals with no excuses in the Apollo and she is going to be hard to beat again. Kolding has returned in great form but I feel the mares have his measure on wet tracks. Funstar might be able to control the race from in front, she’s got a great second-up record, handles wet tracks and is the value runner.

R7 (5.05pm): SURROUND STAKES (1400m)

Dufficy: After studying the Light Fingers Stakes I wanted to go looking for fresh blood here. When you are doing that, why not settle on a dual Group 1 winner in Montefilia. She has won in the wet, races well fresh and is double-figure odds. The more I look at her, I’m thinking how can she run badly in this race? She will be steaming home wide out and will be hard to beat. La Mexicana rides the speed, tries hard, likes it wet and is fit. Elizabeel was one of the better runs out of the Light Fingers Stakes. She is coming up well this preparation and is massive odds. Thermosphere is suited by the wet track and draw.

Thomas: I’m staying with Dame Giselle. She comes out of the Inglis Sprint when she ran a close fourth and is back to fillies grade, where she was dominant last spring. She is better on top of the ground but she has won twice at Group 2 level on soft 7 tracks. You have convinced me to have a saver on Montefilia. Never Talk ran a blinder in the Light Fingers Stakes and 1400m suits her. La Mexicana is from an astute stable, her form is good and with her racing pattern, she will give herself every chance.

R8 (5.40pm): HEINEKEN HCP (2000m)

Dufficy: I am leaning to the three-year-old Skylab — he rattled off really good sectionals winning last start. I know it was only a benchmark 78 but there is something about him that you have to like. He looks a real Derby horse. Great House is the danger. He was impressive winning at Rosehill, although everything went right for him that day with the solid speed, then he just chimed in and outstayed them. But he still has plenty of upside. The Melbourne mare Realm Of Flowers is a promising staying mare who did enough first-up at Flemington. She has competed at a good level and deserves respect. I’m convinced Mohican Heights will improve out of sight as nothing went right for him at his first run in Australia.

Thomas: Great House created a huge impression at Rosehill and trainer Chris Waller talks highly of him. He’s a promising stayer and can win again. Promising three-year-old Sky Lab is also held in high regard and there was no fluke about his tough win at Randwick last start. Soldier Of Love deserves another chance as he is good on wet tracks. Kaapfever is coming back in trip but has never been in better form.

Ron and Ray are both keen on Zakat. Picture: Getty Images

R9 (6.15pm): ACY SECURITIES HCP (1200m)

Dufficy: I’m very keen on Zakat, he’s the best of the day. He has nice wet form, he has a level of consistency about him and he beat Icebath on a wet track last preparation. He maps well, has had the run back and gets James McDonald, so he has all the ticks in the world for this race. I’m wary of Bound To Win. She didn’t come up last time in and they turned her out quickly. Her wet form is good and if she can find some of her old form, she is right in this. Liberty Sun is probably outgraded but on the speed map he gets complete control and is one from one on a heavy track. Poetic Charmer is racing with a really good level of consistency

Thomas: This is Zakat’s race, particularly with stablemate Subedar going to Flemington, where he will also be hard to beat. Zakat is coming back from a good first-up effort at Flemington to a suitable race where he gets all the favours. Poetic Charmer showed admirable determination to win last start and is racing in good form this campaign. He’s A Hotshot is fit and holding his form and I also expect Bound To Win to be more competitive this campaign.

FLEMINGTON

R7 (4.05pm): AUSTRALIAN GUINEAS (1600m)

Dufficy: I’ve always been a bit of a fan of Jet Propulsion when he was in Sydney. He had a bit of form there and always promised to be better as an autumn three-year-old. I liked what he did first-up and he might be one at odds. Tagaloa (above) was strong winning last start and third-up here he’s a deserved favourite. Cherry Tortoni needed the run first-up in a race not run to suit. I didn’t mind the run of the West Australian Dom To Shoot and he is a likely improver.

Thomas: I want to give Ole Kirk another chance. The track bias was against him last week and it will pay to forgive him the only poor run of his career. He’s the best three-year-old in this race and back against his own age, he can bounce back and win his third Group 1 race. Cherry Tortoni is an emerging talent and he will be charging home. Aysar never runs a bad race but finds it hard to win. Tagaloa has found form again and will be in the finish.

SATURDAY EXTRA

SHAYNE O’CASS’S TOP PICKS

NEWCASTLE

BEST BET

Race 1 No.5: IN FLANDERS

Guaranteed to be short odds but simply won’t get a better chance to breakthrough than here today.

NEXT BEST

Race 6 No.12: SIDEARM

Has sent out some positive signs so far but he was/is always going to be at his peak this campaign and the one after that. Nice horse.

VALUE

Race 8 No.12: LAND AHOY

Probably heading to races like the Keith Nolan, Adrian Knox and Oaks so will need to take it up a notch.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1,9,10

Race 6: 12

Race 7: 10,15

Race 8: 6,12

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Kesgan Latham can extend his lead on the Provincial Jockeys standings thanks to come crackerjack rides.

MUSWELLBROOK

BEST BET

Race 6 No.3: JAZIRAT

Handy on her day, this Dynamic / Deamer mare is way down in grade today pretty much measured against all runs of the career.

NEXT BEST

Race 5 No.3: LIME AND SUGAR

Has really hit her best stride in recent times with a maiden win followed up by a Newcastle Class 1 second.

VALUE

Race 4 No.4: LEGENDOFOZ

Fastnet Rock out four-time Group 1 winner Princess Cup who is himself ‘1 from 29’ but has been rather unlucky in lots of them.

Originally published as Randwick tips: Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s best bets and analysis