Raceday focus: Best bets, race-by-race analysis for the caulfield card

National racing editor Stephen Brassel is cock-a-hoop about his best bet at Caulfield, but he also chimes in with a four-play betting strategy and super quaddie snapshot.

TAB’s Nick Quinn says Graff looks the value runner on New Year’s Day.

Respected racing analyst Stepehen Brassel is fired up to start the new year in style for punters and has identified a couple of solid chances in his Caulfield preview.

BEST BET

HOUSAY (Race 4 No 9 - $3.80)

Still in his first preparation but doing everything right with two wins and two third placings. Expecting he’ll slot in behind the speed and prove too strong in the straight.

NEXT BEST

ZION (Race 6 No 8 - $6)

Lightly raced but showing plenty of promise and expect he’ll atone for an unlucky last start third at Flemington when gave away too much advantage switching back around the field.

TERBIUM (Race 8 No 1 - $3.20)

Was Group 3 winner of the Zeditave Stakes back in February 2019 making it four straight beating the highly regarded Zousain but went winless until recent return and scintillating winner at Gawler. Just needs to repeat that to win again.

WALKING FLYING (Race 9 No 13 - $8.50)

Smart mare on her day and ready to peak fourth-up after hitting the line strongly last time at Flemington. Well placed with the feather weight.

BEST VALUE

BIOMETRIC (Race 7 No 1 - $19)

Fitter for one run back from a spell and better suited out to 1400m after solid effort over 1200m down the Flemington straight.

Damien Oliver looks well placed with some outstanding rides at The Heath.

THE JOCKEY

DAMIEN OLIVER

Full book of nine rides for Ollie and all at single figure odds! IMPECUNIOUS (Race 1 No 1 - $2.60), GALGANI (Race 2 No 11 - $9), COIN COLLECTOR (Race 3 No 6 - $4.80),

PROMOTIONS (Race 4 No 2 - $9.50), EXCELIDA (Race 5 No 4 - $9), DICKIN MEDAL (Race 6 No 6 - $4.60), GRINZINGER ALLEE (Race 7 No 7 - $7), OVERKILL (Race 8 No 10 - $7.50), THINK ‘N’ FLY (Race 9 No 8 - $5.50).

BRASSEL’S QUADZILLA BETTING STRATEGY

LEG 1: RACE 6

Some good quality three-year-olds going around in this but happy to stick with the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained ZION (8). He was impressive hitting the line strongly at Bendigo when breaking his maiden then dragged back to last and should have won when a close third at Flemington. Drawn well he’s the one to beat. HYDRO STAR (3) had good wraps before debut win then forget his last in the Vain Stakes when not mentally ready. Jumped out nicely under no pressure for his return.

1st LEG: 1, 3, 6, 8

LEG 2: RACE 7

Going with a bit of value on top with BIOMETRICS (1) around $21. He resumed from a spell and couldn’t dash when he needed to but plugged away well enough behind Defiant Dancer down the straight 1200m at Flemington. He’s won two from three at 1400m and also a second-up winner previously, with the 3kg claim he looks well placed. RULE THE WORLD (5) looks the obvious leader and if left alone he could be hard to run down.

2nd LEG: 1, 5, 7, 8

LEG 3: RACE 8

TERBIUM looked good winning his first four starts but lost his way after that with 10 successive defeats, only finding the placings twice. However that was all forgotten when he resumed at Gawler recently and overcame a wide run to power away and win by nearly five lengths. Repeat of that makes him the one to beat. SWORD OR MERCY (9) the obvious danger but she’s not well weighted against a couple she met last time, even though she did beat them easily.

3rd LEG: 1, 2, 9, 10

LEG 4: RACE 9

Plenty of chances in the closer but happy to play with the Dabernig and Hayes-trained WALKING FLYING (13), she should be at her peak following three runs from a spell and closed out nicely from the back carrying much more weight at Flemington last time. Drops to 53.5kg with the claim and her best form comes with a few runs under the belt. HEAVENLY EMPEROR (7) should also be ready after three runs back from a spell. Including a few others including topweight CALL ME HANDSOME (1) at big odds.

4th LEG: 1, 7, 8, 13, 14

Sword Of Mercy is a must have in the quaddie legs.

CAULFIELD

1st LEG: 1, 3, 6, 8

2nd LEG: 1, 5, 7, 8

3rd LEG: 1, 2, 9, 10

4th LEG: 1, 7, 8, 13, 14

Cost $100 for 31.25%

SKINNY QUADDIE

Can tighten up on the first leg and I’m happy to only play ZION (8) and HYDRO STAR (3) while I’ll go with the top three selections in the second leg BIOMETRICS (1), RULE THE WORLD (5) and GRINZINGER ALLEE (7). TERBIUM (1) and SWORD OF MERCY (9) are the two for the third leg while in the last we’ll go two again in HEAVENLY EMPEROR (7) and WALKING FLYING (13).

CAULFIELD

1st LEG: 3, 8

2nd LEG: 1, 5, 7

3rd LEG: 1, 9

4th LEG: 7, 13

Cost $100 for 416%

BRASSEL’S FOUR-PLAY $200 BETTING STRATEGY

RACE 1 CAULFIELD

CAROL WATSON HCP (1400m)

$30 win INSAAF (13) at $18

$20 quinella (13) with IMPECUNIOUS (1)

While I’ve got great respect for the topweight Impecunious I’m happy to play the longer-priced Insaaf while also saving on the quinella. Insaaf was beaten 2¼ lengths when third behind highly-regarded Cherry Tortoni and Albarado at Flemington when last in work and she was strong to the line when resuming at Sale. At $18 she’s worth the gamble.

RACE 4 CAULFIELD

WARREN MOORE HCP (1200m)

$50 win HOUSAY (9) at $3.80

Racing in top form and should have arguably won at Moonee Valley when charging late for third in a 1200m Benchmark 78 behind Bandersnatch. Was slowly away and got into a tricky spot to lose all chance when the race went on coming to the turn. Goes up 3kg here but against that does drop to a Benchmark 70 and Craig Williams sticks.

RACE 5 CAULFIELD

IRIS O’FARRELL (1100m)

$50 win LANI BANG BANG (5) at $7

Lightly-raced daughter of Reward For Effort, Lani Bang Bang resumed after 21 weeks off and easily accounted for the opposition in an ordinary race at Kyneton last time although the runner-up did come out and win after that. There looks a stack of speed and Lani Bang Bang will be strong late judging by what she’s done so far in her three-start career.

RACE 9 CAULFIELD

VIRGINIA MEYER HCP (1600m)

$50 win WALKING FLYING (13) at $8.50

The Tom Dabernig and Ben Hayes-trained Walking Flying closed out an eight-run campaign last time in work with three successive wins at Sale, Sandown and Flemington — she obviously takes the work! This time around she’s had three runs to fit her for this and she worked home strongly to finish midfield in an unsuitably run 1600m at Flemington last time. Drops 4.5kg with the claim and like the odds available.

CAULFIELD

RACE 1: 12.55PM CAROL WATSON HCP (1400m)

IMPECUNIOUS (1) couldn’t have been more impressive at her local debut when charging over the top of them to win easily in a Class 1 over 1200m at Caulfield. The step up in distance suits, Damien Oliver sticks and she looks to have a touch of quality about her. Still she’s short enough around $2.60 and I’m interested in the maiden INSAAF (13) at $18. She was having her first run back from a spell when a close second at Sale behind a smart one and has raced well against good company previously.

SUGGESTED BET: Something each-way Insaaf and taking the 1-13 quinella with Impecunious

TAB MARKET MOVER: 1 – Impecunious $3.40-$2.60 ($900 @ $3.30, $1,000 @ $3.10, $470 @ $3, $500 @ $2.90, $600 @ $2.80, $500 @ $2.80, $1,200 @ $2.70, $900 @ $2.70, $300 @ $2.70, $500 @ $2.60, $400 @ $2.60)

RACE 2: 1.30PM VIN QUIRK HCP (1400m)

Impossible race with any number of chances and SAFFIANO (8) is one of those however also an acceptor at Eagle Farm but hard to beat if he comes here. GALGANI (11) only won F & M Bm58 at Cranbourne last start but it was a tough effort after racing wide without cover throughout. CAMPESE has been mixing it up a bit but was strong through the line over 1440m at Caulfield last time and, significantly, gets a good gate. TRAGIC (10) has drawn wide but worked to the line well enough last time and gets significant jockey change.

SUGGESTED BET: Very small bets Galgani and Saffiano if the stable chose this.

TAB MARKET MOVER: No bets or movements of note

RACE 3: 2.05PM JODIE BURGESS HCP (2400m)

Another tricky race with a few last start winners looking good as they have got out over a ground. MILETUS (16) was one of those winning by seven lengths in a Sale 2226m maiden last time. He’d run on well at his previous start over 1850m after missing the start and last time led throughout. There should be no worries with the 2400m and he gets in with only 54kg. COIN COLLECTOR (6) followed the leader and broke away to win easily at Bendigo and he’s the obvious danger while RUDHYAR (13) is a lightly raced import improving.

SUGGESTED BET: Miletus the win and saving on Coin Collector

TAB MARKET MOVER: 16 – Miletus $10-$7.50

Housay drops in grade and looks extremely well placed.

RACE 4: 2.40PM WARREN MOORE HCP (1200m)

HOUSAY (9) had no luck at all when third at Moonee Valley last time and arguably should have won. Was slowly away and then in traffic throughout before powering through the line when finally clear. That was in a Bm78 and drops in grade here. Previously raced well in even tougher grade when just over a length from the winner in Bm90 at Flemington. This looks his race and only bad luck should beat him. THE GENERAL (10) looks the main danger after a solid preparation when last in work and he’s definitely a market watch.

SUGGESTED BET: Housay decent bet to win

TAB MARKET MOVER: 11 – Bones $21-$15

RACE 5: 3.20PM IRIS O’FARRELL (1100m)

Looks a stack of speed which should suit LANI BANG BANG (12) as one of the run-on brigade. She resumed after 21-weeks off and charged home to score a soft win over 1100m at Kyneton after going out last time a maiden winner at Echuca. Lightly raced and from the good barrier confident she’ll be thereabouts. MISS ALBANIA (10) is another lightly raced mare showing plenty of ability. She led them up and kept going at Moonee Valley over 1000m but she’s up 2.5kg here and drawing wide she may have a bit to do early.

SUGGESTED BET: Lani Bang Bang safe each-way

TAB MARKET MOVER: 12 – Lani Bang Bang $8-$6.50

RACE 6: 4PM ERIC COLDHAM (1100m)

Most interesting race with some nice quality three-year-olds lining up. Happy to go with a couple of the colts in ZION (8) and HYDRO STAR (3). Zion arguably should have won at Flemington last time when dragged back to last around heels to the outside and stormed home late. Gets his chance to atone however very cautious with Hydro Star who resumes after 20 weeks off. Impressive on debut then took on Group 3 company but not ready. Given a recent jump out when flopped out of the gates and cruised through the line.

SUGGESTED BET: Backing both Zion and Hydro Star

TAB MARKET MOVER: 8 – Zion $6.50-$5.50 ($250 x $150 e/w @ $6.50/$2.50, $500 @ $6)

RACE 7: 4.40PM TRAVIS STILLMAN HCP (1400m)

Thought BIOMETRICS (1) did enough first-up to warrant the gamble at decent odds. He was outsped when the sprint went on but worked to the line nicely over 1200m behind Defiant Dancer down the Flemington straight. Drops from Bm84 to Bm78 and gets the 3kg off for Will Price. Winner twice at the distance and $21 is succulent odds. RULE THE WORLD (5) should lead and he jumped out well for this while GRINZINGER ALLEE (7) looks to be ticking over nicely.

SUGGESTED BET: Something each-way Biometrics and taking the boxed trifectas and quinellas 1, 5, 7, 8

TAB MARKET MOVER: 7 – Grinzinger Alee $13-$6 ($300 e/w @ $13/$4, $600 @ $9.50, $4,500 x $5,000 e/w @ $8.50/$2.90)

Deductions: Witchfulthinking 9c Win 9c Place

Terbium has won at Caulfield previously and will give this latest attempt a real shake.

RACE 8: 5.20PM MIA TIERNAN HCP (1100m)

TERBIUM (1) looked like he was back in a big way when resuming at Gawler last start and if he brings that form again the grey shapes as the one to beat. He won his first four then lost his way ‘missing’ 10 times but he was spectacular racing wide and powering away at his first start for six months. Has his share of weight but does have class. SWORD OF MERCY (9) was most impressive at Flemington but she’s meeting FINE DANE (2) and OVERKILL (10) much worse at the weights although she did beat them decisively.

SUGGESTED BET: If what you see is what you believe I’m backing Terbium to win

TAB MARKET MOVER: 1 – Terbium $4.20-$3.20 ($700 @ $4.20, $600 @ $4, $500 @ $3.70, $500 @ $3.60, $300 @ $3.30)

Deductions: Hint Of Mint 2c Win 1c Place

RACE 9: 5.55PM VIRGINIA MEYER HCP (1600m)

WALKING FLYING (13) closed off well from last at Flemington last start and should be right at his peak for this following three runs back from a spell. Gets 2kg off for Thomas Stockdale and with only 53.5kg looks well placed. HEAVENLY EMPEROR (7) was specked in the betting and not disgraced when sixth in Bm84 against a good few of these (Think ‘N’ Fly, Aussie Nugget, Safin, Black Sail). He had a torrid run three deep throughout working hard and gets a significant jockey change with Jamie Kah jumping on board.

SUGGESTED BET: Backing both Walking Flying and Heavenly Emperor

TAB MARKET MOVER: No bets or movements of note

QUINNY’S MAILBAG: NEW YEAR’S FILL-UP

BEST BET: Spankem (Alexander Park today, Race 4, No.9)

VALUE BET: Graff (Flemington Friday, Race 4, No.1)

LAY OF THE DAY: Gotta Kiss (Eagle Farm Saturday, Race 7, No.13)

FLEMINGTON FRIDAY

RACE 4

Defiant Dancer was heavily backed at Flemington last start and produced an effortless victory and punters anticipate that we will see the same result here with early money coming for the Stokes trained gelding.

Defiant Dancer heads the market at $3.30 and is aiming for a fifth straight victory.

He drops 2.5kg from his most recent victory and shapes as the one to beat.

Serious Suspect is a $4.40 second elect on the back of a strong Pakenham win and shapes as the main danger.

The runner who looks over the odds at $9 is Graff.

Now with the Danny O’Brien stable Graff produced a big first-up win for the new team at Caulfield in October and has been freshened since contesting the Group 1 VRC Classic.

My betting advice is to back Defiant Dancer with a saver on Graff.

SUGGESTED BET: DEFIANT DANCER THE WIN.

KENSINGTON SATURDAY

RACE 1

There has been strong early money for the James Cummings trained filly Laurelin to make a winning debut.

Laurelin has been backed from $4.40 into $4.20 including one bet of $5000 each-way at $4.40 the win and $1.70 the place.

In a challenging race to assess seven of the 12 runners are on debut

Laurelin won a trial well at Canterbury on December 15 and holds each-way appeal.

The Chris Waller trained Ranch Hand heads the market at $2.30 and deserves favouritism after winning well at Warwick Farm on debut.

Ranch Hand has also accepted for Race 4 at Eagle Farm on Saturday.

There has also been early support for the John O’Shea trained Arthur Francis who has been backed from $41 into $21.

SUGGESTED BET: LAURELIN EACH-WAY.

ASCOT SATURDAY

RACE 8

After weeks of speculation about the favourite Truly Great contesting the Perth Cup a decision was made to run and as a result, he is now a commanding market leader.

He is a rising star and comes into this race having won six of his past seven starts including a dominant win over Group 1 winner Trap For Fools last start in the Ted Van Heemst Stakes.

The $2.25 seems acceptable and will be popular with superstar jockey William Pike in the saddle.

The logical danger for mine is Neufbosc who has relished a relocation to Western Australia.

Neufbosc returned to form by winning the Carbine Club on November 20 over the unsuitable 1400 metre trip, it was his first Australian win after boasting some elite international form including chasing home Enable in the 2018 Arc and finishing runners-up to Kew Gardens at Group 1 level.

He comes into the race on the back of saluting at Ascot over 2200 metres on Boxing Day.

The runner from left field is Princess Jenni who will be ridden by Melbourne Cup winning jockey Jye McNeil.

She returned to form winning the Bendigo Cup this campaign and is worth including in the multiples.

SUGGESTED BET: TRULY GREAT THE WIN.

Originally published as Raceday focus: Best bets, race-by-race analysis for the caulfield card