Nathan’s Racebook: All the best bets at Doomben this weekend
The racing action is in full swing this weekend at Doomben and we’ve got the best tips here. Join Nathan Exelby and Ladbrokes as they preview a massive Saturday.
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Racing editor Nathan Exelby looks for the winners at Doomben with help from the Ladbrokes bookmaking team.
Track: Good (4); Weather: Fine
Race 4: Lazy Yak Class 3 Plate
1350m, C3 SW, 2.08pm
NATHAN SAYS: Light Up The Room is a key runner. She has standout peak ratings in this field and has won two of three fresh. No public trials and hasn’t raced for 189 days, but on his Final Gallop preview, trainer Tony Gollan (pictured) outlined how she has jumped out a couple of times and is ready to win if she gets luck in running. Happy to be with her. Cinnamon Missile just keeps improving this preparation. May not have seen the mile out last time, but he was sticking it to the hotpot Soxagon before that and battled on okay. Back to this shorter trip, off an ideal draw, there’s no reason he won’t race well again. Lashoni has appreciated being ridden quietly her last couple and won well. Draw makes this a bit tougher.
LADBROKES SAY: The scratching of Maslow threw this market into a bit of disarray early. Since the scratching, Cinnamon Missile has been $7 into $5. Light Up The Room has had no takers at the $5.50, while the stablemate Lashoni is the $3.80 favourite, but again, no real move yet.
THE PLAY: Light Up The Room is the best horse and $5.50 looks fair enough to play.
Race 5: Tattersall’s Members
1350, Ratings 0-80, 2.48pm
NATHAN SAYS: Maslow and All Important ran 1-2 at this track a fortnight back, but suspect there’s a bit more depth here. The 1350m is the absolute outer limit for All Important, while Maslow needs a slice of luck from the draw early. Ashman is going to be up there making his own luck. Can tuck in behind if need be and the way Matt Dunn (pictured) has him going at the moment, he will be hard to hold out again. Won easily out of town twice and then put his rivals to the sword at Doomben and Ipswich. Beat a proven Saturday class horse last time and beat him easily. If the pressure is on up front, Sparky Lad has a hope. It wasn’t the worst last you will ever see last time.
LADBROKES SAY: Spring Creek has been $16 into $10 and we’ve laid quite a few bets on her. She won her last couple in Rocky and punters think she will measure up. Ashman has been $3.80 into $3.30. Maslow ($5), Get Stuck In ($5), Dreamreacher ($5.50) and Park Chinois ($9) are all in the market as well.
THE PLAY: Ashman the clear top pick but can have something on Sparky Lad as well.
Race 6: Winning Edge Handicap
1110m, 1MW, 3.28pm
NATHAN SAYS: Constant Flight comes up relatively short in early markets, resuming here off a 56-day let-up for David Vandyke (pictured). Was good winning his first two back this time in, then weights against, but still sound behind Capital Connection and Tambo’s Mate, conceding the latter 3kg. That’s turned out to be hot form. The 1110m is probably short of his best, which is the query, but drawn to get a sweet run behind for Ryan Maloney and can prove too classy. Darktown Strutter has a super fresh record and has trialled okay. Dream Master is the other one capable, but draw looks sticky, just as it might be for Darktown Strutter. That leaves Constant Flight looking like a real standout here and it’s hard to deviate away from him too much. Thought Mr Storm could run on at the end for multiples.
LADBROKES SAY: One way traffic for Constant Flight, who has been $3 into $2.35. He’s getting short enough up in the weights, but we struggle to find anything to really stand out and beat him.
THE PLAY: Constant Flight will be better over slightly further, but class can carry the day here.
Race 7: Spirit Of Boom Classic
1200m, F&M SW+P, 4.08pm
NATHAN SAYS: The NSW visitors hold the key. Ready To Prophet won the Gai Waterhouse Classic here during the winter and was good second-up before failing last time. Wide barrier probably doesn’t help, but she will roll forward. Miss Fabulass hasn’t won since September last year, but comes back a cog here and her two runs have been better than the finishing position suggests. She will get a genuine speed on here and it’s her best chance in a good while to break through. Epic Girl kept climbing the ladder last time in, showcased with her excellent win before the break. Has trialled well for Chris Anderson (pictured) and off the good gate, expecting her to measure up. Spirit’s Choice is better suited around Doomben than Flemington. Other pressure might determine her fate. Think Snow Valley can measure up. Showed a lot of potential early and stable opts for this over a restricted race earlier.
LADBROKES SAY: Miss Fabulass $8 into $5 and Ready To Prophet $9.50 into $7. The big mover has been Churning, from $21 into $9.50. That means Spirit’s Choice has been $3.90 out to $4.20.
THE PLAY: Epic Girl appeals each-way at $11 and $3.50. Must have Miss Fabulass onside too.
Race 8: Recognition Stakes
1350m, Qty Hcp, 4.48pm
NATHAN SAYS: Signore Fox the key player. He was impressive in Brisbane beating a handy field on Stradbroke day then very good winning first-up in Sydney, giving a subsequent stakes winner 5kg. Just needs a nice ride from Mark Du Plessis (pictured) off a potentially sticky gate and would also appreciate some pressure being applied to Deep Image up front. Deep Impage looks a big player based on the map, but there are a couple that could make him work. That said, he’s airborne this time around. Sounds like the stable might keep Vega One for another day. Stablemate Silvera trialled very well and looks like running a race fresh.
LADBROKES SAY: Tambo’s Mate has been $5 into $3.80. We went up a little better than others and were happy to pot him early, but the punters knocked us over to take the $5. Signore Fox is $4 into $3.90. Rhyme Nor Rhythm was the subject of a couple of good bets at big odds and is $51 to $34.
THE PLAY: Signore Fox to overcome the alley. Silvera at bigger odds.
Race 9: Stella Artois Handicap
1615m, Class 6 Handicap, 5.25pm
NATHAN SAYS: A good, deep Class 6, but don’t see anything wrong with the form of Magstock, who is chasing his third win in four starts. Slow pace no hindrance last time, as he rounded them up in super slick sectional. The in-form Steph Thornton (pictured) keeps the mount and with a few jostling for positions up front, this fellow can sit back and charge again. Can’t see why he would be double figures given the formline he brings in. Tatcee is wearing thin, but maybe back to 1615m is a plus, especially off the inside draw. Barefoot went a little better last time and might be ready to fire now. Did nought at her first couple of runs back but showed she hadn’t lost all form last start and this stable has a phenomenal strike rate since teaming up.
LADBROKES SAY: Alpine Dancer $10 into $8 and Saxton Rock has been $7 into $6. The favourite Tatcee was originally $4.80 out to $5, but back into $4.50 yesterday. Brains ($6.50) and Get Stuck In ($5.50) both solid enough.
THE PLAY: Can back Magstock at the $11 to make it three from his past four.
LADBROKES ROUND UP
BEST BACKED: Tambo’s Mate (Race 8) $5 into $3.80
Other movers: Constant Flight (Race 6) $3-$2.35; Cinnamon Missile (Race 4) $7.50-$5; Spring Creek (Race 5) $16-$11.
LAY OF THE DAY: Tambo’s Mate (Race 8)
BEST BET: Prioritise (Race 8) $21
FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH
TONY GOLLAN has another strong hand at Doomben, albeit made more difficult by a lot of poor draws. Here’s what the premier trainer had to say about some of his runners today on his weekly preview, The Final Gallop.
Mass Destruction (Race 1): “I’ve always seen him as a nice horse and he’s one of those two-year-olds that is on an upward spiral. There was great improvement from his barrier trial to his jumpout. I’m sure he will run really well.”
Lashoni (Race 4): “She’s certainly better ridden quiet. I would have liked to have drawn better. We have to be negative on her early. She will finish her race off really well.”
Light Up The Room (Race 4): “We gave her a good spell after the winter. She’s had two jumpouts and we’ve done plenty of work with her. I think she’s a promising mare, much better than this grade. I will go forward from the gate, put her into the race and she’s definitely the class horse.”
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Silvera (Race 8): “He’s going terrific. Barrier eight concerns me more than anything. Whether he can make up the leeway ... this run will top him off for a mile. I’m hoping he runs well enough to take him to the Villiers.”
Snitch (Race 8): “He will get a lovely run, he’s a big improver second up. I think he’s way over the odds.”
Get Stuck In (Race 9): “He will have to go forward from the gate. There is good speed in the race and I hope they break up so he can get in second or third pair. If he does he will run terrific.”
Brains (Race 9): “We have upped the work and it sharpened him up. He’s very healthy, but yet again, he has an ordinary draw. We will be on the way forward ... he’s like Get Stuck In, he needs them to break up to find a spot.”
NATHAN’S SUMMARY
BEST BETS
Mass Destruction (Race 1) $6
Don’t Waiver (Race 2) $5
Red Stina (Race 3) $2.60
Constant Flight (Race 6) $2.35
VALUE
Epic Girl (Race 7) $11
Magstock (Race 9) $11
MULTI BET
Place all-up Don’t Waiver (Race 2), Cinnamon Missile (Race 4), Tatcee (Race 9)
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