Monday Mail: The one stat many recent 2YO Magic Millions winners have in common
Nathan Exelby’s Monday Mail looks back at the weekend and suggests a historical pattern leaves few chances in next Saturday’s Magic Millions 2YO Classic.
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For all the speculation about what might unfold in Saturday’s $2 million Magic Millions 2YO Classic, it has been a relatively predictable race over its history, dating back to Snippets, who won as a 3-1 favourite in 1987.
With Snippets setting the pattern in motion, the public elect has won 17 of the 34 renditions of the race (excluding those years where a fillies division was run).
Up until Away Game’s $41 upset last year, favourites (or equal fav in the case of Houtzen) had won eight of the previous 10.
Away Game was the ninth winner to start at double figure odds and at $41, second only to Phelan Ready ($51) as the longest-priced winner.
Perhaps though the most remarkable MM statistic is the near necessity to be a last start winner, a box Away Game ticked, despite her starting price.
In 34 runnings of the race, only five horses on the honour roll were NOT last start winners; Phelan Ready (2009), Mirror Mirror (2006), Regimental Gal (2003), Lovely Jubly (2002) and Sunblazer (1989).
The other constant – and with respects to No Looking Back who would have bucked the trend but for being relegated – no horse has won the race at its second start.
So that leaves you with just Alpine Edge, Finance Tycoon, She’s All Class, Swift Witness and You’ll Be Mist as horses fitting the historical winning pattern.
And when you add in that favourites win one in two, it augurs nicely for She’s All Class to take the silverware on Saturday.
DANNY UNDECIDED ON PARADEE
Danny O’Brien is still mulling over which way he will go with Paradee this weekend.
Market assessors suggest it should be straightforward, with Ladbrokes having The Wave winner at $2.80 to win the Subzero (2400m) and O’Brien conceded yesterday it would be difficult to pass up the opportunity to run in a $1 million race, as opposed to the $250,000 alternative.
“I’m still not sure to be honest. The 2400m is $1 million, so it’s very tempting,” he said.
“She has run well at 2000m, but we haven’t taxed her beyond that at the moment.”
The Melbourne Cup winning trainer said the fact he also has Skiddaw running in the Subzero would make no difference to the decision he makes with Paradee.
“When you’ve got a $1 million race you need to run as many as you can if you’ve got a horse in form and capable of winning it,” he said.
MONDAY MAIL
LADBROKES WEEKEND REPORT
Best Result: Fisticuffs, Race 9: On a day dominated by the punters, the book was finally able to get a positive result in the last.
Worst Result/Best Backed: Yao Dash, Race 7: Backed as if unbeatable and he was dominant.
Magic Millions Snippets, run Saturday:
$5.50 Jonker
$6 Roheryn
$8 Eleven Eleven
$9 Bella Vella
$10 King Of Hastings
$11 Hard Empire
$12 Exhilarares
$13 Snapdancer
$14 Graff
$15 Niedorp, The Odyssey, Usmanov
$17 Sansom, The Astrologist
$26 Evening Glory
THIS WEEK
Tuesday: Gatton, Albury, Quirindi, Kilmore
Wednesday: Rockhampton, Warwick Farm, Canberra, Caulfield, Yarra Valley, Strathalbyn, Bunbury
Thursday: Eagle Farm, Gunnedah, Moruya, Pakenham (night), Ararat, Penola, Pinjarra
Friday: Townsville, Gosford, Ballina, The Valley (night), Geelong, Esperance
Saturday: Gold Coast, Rosehill, Flemington, Murray Bridge, Ascot, Ipswich, Atherton, Thangool, Warwick, Kembla Grange, Camperdown, Darwin
Sunday: Sunshine Coast, Lismore, Cowra, Wangaratta, Mount Barker
THE QUOTE
“You mightn’t be able to get us out of here now.” Danny O’Brien got up to Queensland nice and early, but noted on Saturday he and many other Victorians are in limbo on what might be required to return home. At least the trip has been worthwhile, with Paradee getting a sweet payday in The Wave.
THE TALKING POINT
For much of the past 12 months Queenslanders have looked on with sympathy as southerners complied with strict Covid restrictions, including mandatory face masks. That turned full circle at the weekend as local participants had to don the gear for the first time and comply with strict protocols in order for the meeting to proceed. News and infection numbers over the next few days will be top of all discussions heading into MM week.
THE RIDE
Nash Rawiller was at his best on Animate, lifting the Kris Lees runner over the line in the Country Cup. He had a sweeter ride to the line on Yao Dash, who he was able to coax a winning performance out of for the first time in 490 days.
THREE TO BACK
Acrobatic, Race 1: Didn’t have the best of luck. Much improved here.
Glorious Ruby, Race 2: Terrific debut!
Ruuca, Race 7: Bumped into a stakes horse in a C4 Plate.
THE RISK
Redoute’s Image is super consistent, but she does tend to find one or two better.
THE FLOP
Punters who steamed into Prometheus were out of play when the gates opened and he failed to pass a horse after bungling the start. Looks a complete forgive run.
SHARP SHOOTERS
Punters were on target right throughout the day, but races five through seven stood out, with Sugar Boom, Stolen Jade and in particular Yao Dash all singled out in what early doors looked deep races.
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