Nathan’s Racebook: Doomben best bets and analysis Gollan has strong hand again

Courier Mail racing editor Nathan Exelby expects trainer Tony Gollan to have a big day as he and the Ladbrokes team pinpoint the horses to back at Doomben.

Tony Gollan has a handful of winning chances at Doomben. Picture: Trackside Photography

Nathan Exelby looks for the winners at Doomben today with help from the Ladbrokes bookmaking team.

DOOMBEN

Track: Soft (6); Expecting Soft 5/Good 4

Weather: Partly cloudy, 30 degrees

NATHAN’S SUMMARY

Best Bets

Prometheus, Race 2, $3.80

Hail Manhattan/Gunnobe, Race 3, $6.50/$13

Garibaldi, Race 4, $2.60

Batangas Entry, Race 5, $4.80

Bleu Zebra, Race 6, $3.80

Value

Advance Warning, Race 7, $13

LADBROKES SUMMARY

Best backed

Batangas Entry, Race 5, $7.50-$4.80

Others

Genzai The Wolf, Race 4, $26-$14

Ligulate, Race 2, $2.20-$2.10

Desert Lord, Race 9, $7-$5.50

Tycoon Evie, Race 6, $13-$11

Lay of the Day

Garibaldi, Race 4, $2.60

Best Bet

Batangas Entry, Race 5, $4.80

RACE 4: CLASS 3 PLATE (1200m)

Nathan says: It’s never comfortable being on the other side of the Ladbrokes lay, but going to oppose them with Garibaldi. Really feel he’s turned the corner now after breaking through narrowly at Caloundra (holding off a talented one), then putting his rivals away at Eagle Farm. He’s been kept away from the stronger races this carnival and now finds a very winnable Class 3 Plate, with confidence right up. Hoping Michael Rodd can get him across one-off early and he can be too good from there. Oh Five Glory the danger. She’s much better suited back to 1200m and she did run a cracker fresh.

Ladbrokes say: Good move for Genzai The Wolf, which is $26 into $14. The other money is Ready Babe ($17-$12). That means Garibaldi is out the gate from $2.45 to $2.60. Interesting race and going to try Mr So And So back from Hong Kong. Thought the trial was pretty good and well placed at the set weights. Had Group form in Melbourne before going to HK, so worth a spec at $26.

The Play: Chips in Garibaldi.

Nathan Exelby is taking on Ladbrokes with Garibaldi. Picture: AAP

RACE 5: 3YO C&G HANDICAP (1200m)

Nathan says: Back in sync with the Ladbrokes crew here and Batangas Entry. Thought he was good fresh behind Isotope when he should have finished closer. Can be very forgiving of his latest run at Eagle Farm. Back to his right grade here, where he looked promising last prep. Off the good gate here, Jim Byrne can lob in the right spot and give him the chance to bounce back. Plenty of chances if it’s not him, including He Knows, who comes off a solid enough Maiden win. Criminal Defence was excellent at the Gold Coast in similar class and has a hope on that. Derulo disappointed in that race, but fitter again this time.

Ladbrokes say: Good move for Batangas Entry, which is $7.50 to $4.80. That means the original favourite He Knows has gone from $4.40 out to $5. Derulo is solid at $5. Thinking the money is on track with Batangas. He’s been thrown in the deep end his last two and the runs are better than they look on paper.

The Play: Batangas Entry to bounce back.

RACE 6: 3YO FILLIES HANDICAP (1200m)

Nathan says: Georgie Cartwright rode Bleu Zebra beautifully when she bolted in here 24 days back. She just travelled sweetly that day and put her rivals away. Given how strong she was late, don’t see the 1200m as any issue. Cartwright just needs to hopefully get across from the wide gate early and given that scenario, I suspect she can be too classy for these. Expecting stablemate Nicci’s Spirit to improve here from the good gate. Toorooloo was very good in two runs before a break, but disappointed fresh behind Magic Delta and Tycoon Evie. Not much between them based on that and all three have hopes, as do Satine and No Laughing Matter.

Ladbrokes say: Specking for Tycoon Evie ($13-$11). A little bit of money for Bleu Zebra ($3.80-$3.70). Thought the punters were on the mark again with Tycoon Evie. Nice run first up over the 1000m, kept working to the line well and better suited up to 1200m. Just wary of Bleu Zebra finding some trouble from the wide gate.

The Play: Bleu Zebra to go back-to-back.

RACE 7: BM80 HANDICAP (2000m)

Nathan says: Looks your usual Saturday middle distance lottery, with most of the field having form that can make cases for them here. The one that appeals as being a value hope is Advance Warning. He wasn’t disgraced in a couple of good races over the summer carnival. If you look at Torrens, who bounced out of one of those races to win a similar one to this, he has to be a hope here, as Advance Warning’s runs against those better horses was better than Torrens. Mangione was just anchored last time under 62kg. He can ping a bit quicker here. So Dapper was good last week in a much better race and he’s proven on the quick back-ups.

Ladbrokes say: So Dapper is $4.80 into $4.50. North Afrika has been $5.50 into $5. We find this really tricky and going with a bit of a ‘gunner’ horse in Mangione. Up to 2000m off solid runs over shorter courses. Nice weight relief today and at $8 looks a nice price.

The Play: Some value with Advance Warning at $13. Mangione and So Dapper other leading hopes.

Advance Warning is another Tony Gollan runner Nathan is keen on. Picture: Trackside Photography

RACE 8: BM90 HANDICAP (1200m)

Nathan says: Need to take a leap of faith with a few of these if you are going to dive into this race. Not approaching it with much confidence at all. Hard to know if Socialising is going as well as she was last prep but this is a much more suitable target and she shouldn’t have to concede as much start from the better gate this time. Goodonya Sonja continues to race well for the Lindsay Gough (pictured) stable. She’s run well in stakes grade this prep and looks well enough placed off the inside draw. Plenty of queries around first uppers You Make Me Smile, She Za Boss and Maslow, while Jardin Rouge and High Cost could both run well second-up.

Ladbrokes say: Maslow is $12 into $10 for the new stable. Socialising is out the gate, being $4.20 to $4.50. Thought You Make Me Smile might be the one at $5. His trial was solid, drawn well, will make his own luck whereas a few others will give it a start and might find it hard running him down.

The Play: Socialising and Goodonya Sonja the top two in a tough race.

RACE 9: CLASS 6 PLATE (1350m)

Nathan says: Another race where the early market isn’t giving a whole lot away with the ones that look the main chances. Let’s Party Marty has been super in two goes for Lindsay Hatch, particularly last time under Bobby El-Issa (pictured). Based on old form, the extra trip should hold no fears for him here. Desert Lord is in a tricky spot from the wide gate. Track pattern will determine how he’s ridden, but worth noting his most impressive run in Queensland was when he came from the back. Roman Aureus can be forgiven for last time at the Coast and Baroda gets nice weight relief. Suspect one of the four wins, but which one?

Ladbrokes say: Good betting race. Desert Lord is the early mover ($7-$5.50). Specking for Roman Aureus ($6.50-$6). No love for Let’s Party Marty, who is $3.80 to $4.40, but still remains favourite. We give a chance to two here. Roman Aureus was super two back and not going to convict him on the latest and back to his favourite track and also Mountbatten is over the odds at $26 after finding the line last time.

The Play: Multis with Let’s Party Marty, Desert Lord, Roman Aureus and Baroda, but hardly putting the neck on the line.