Magic Millions Saturday Racebook: Nathan Exelby’s tips and analysis for Gold Coast

The Courier Mail racing editor Nathan Exelby and the bookmaking team from Ladbrokes homes pinpoint the horses to back and the ones to give the wide berth at the Gold Coast.

Nathan Exelby looks for the winners on Magic Millions day, with help from the Ladbrokes bookmaking team.

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Gold Coast

Track: Good (4)

Weather: Possible shower, 31 degrees

NATHAN’S SUMMARY

Best bets:

Newsreader, Race 1, $5

Ballistic Boy, Race 2, $3.40

Value bets:

Soxagon/Baller, Race 8, $8.50/$26

Best Multis

Race 4, Box Quin

Hard Empire, Bella Vella, Jonker

Race 5, Quinella

Athiri, Snapdancer

Race 6

Banker Quinella

She’s All Class (banker), with Swift Witness, Shaquero, Alpine Edge, Miss Hipstar

LADBROKES ROUND-UP

Best backed:

Swift Witness, Race 6, $4-$3.70

Others:

Snapdancer, Race 5, $3.80-$3.50

Jonker, Race 4, $5-$4.60

The Odyssey, Race 9, $9-$7

Yao Dash, Race 8, $3.90-$3.80

Lay of the day:

Isotope, Race 7, $2.40

Best bet:

Baller, Race 8, $26

RACE 4: MM SNIPPETS

1200M, SWP, 2PM

Nathan Says: Plenty of speed here, but Jonker has the early toe to cross them and get one-off, or if not lead for Jim Byrne (pictured). He’s been superb in two runs for the Gollan stable. Spreadeagled his rivals first up, then wasn’t as dynamic second time around and Hard Empire got him down fair and square. Like him on the fresh side. Bella Vella ($8.50) is a Group 1 winner who went on with the job in the spring. She worked stylishly on Tuesday morning here and gets a sweet run close to the inside. Hard Empire has been super in all Queensland runs and has to be a chance again. Those further back in the field might have a job getting the leaders down.

Ladbrokes Say: Jonker has been $5 into $4.60. King Of Hastings is the other move, being $11 into $10. Looks a good battle between Jonker and Hard Empire again. We are leaning the way of the latter at the $5. He has a tricky draw, but there’s a lot of pace that can take Jonker on and he can sit off them and come over the top.

The Play: Jonker and Bella Vella on top.

The John O'Shea trained Newsreader shapes as one of the best bets of the day in Race 1. Picture: Getty Images.

RACE 5: MM FILLIES & MARES

1300M, F&M SWP, 2.35PM

Nathan Says: Shapes as a genuine match race. Athiri has been dynamic of late, really living up to her strong early form. She put them to the sword at the end of the Eagle Farm 1200m, suggesting she will still have something to offer when Nash Rawiller (pictured) asks her for the effort here. She’s the proven class in the field. That said, Snapdancer might be on her way to the same level. Figures were super strong in Sydney last time and she matched strides with G1 proven Bella Vella on Tuesday. Wild Vixen and Outback Barbie appeal as the next best for the minors.

Ladbrokes Say: Snapdancer has been a really good move ($3.80-$3.50). It’s the only one so far, with Athiri easing from $2.90 out to $3. We’re giving Outback Barbie another chance. Maybe a glutton for punishment, but she looks like getting a perfect run from barrier one and the $12 might be value. She’s run three times on this day and each one has been very good.

The Play: Athiri/Snapdancer quinella

RACE 6: MAGIC MILLIONS 2YO CLASSIC

1200M, 2YO SW RL, 3.15PM

Nathan Says: Swift Witness is the one that arrives with the best last start figure and the best speed figure after blinkers went on at the Coast last week and she towelled up some handy ones, including Miss Hipstar, who had been very good up to that point. Clearly she’s in it up to her ears. But given all that, just can’t get away from the way She’s All Class arrogantly put her and everything else away at Wyong. The figures weren’t there, but going with the ‘believe your eyes’ mentality and sticking. Chris Waller (pictured) has a strong support crew now and expecting Shaquero to jump out of the ground. Alpine Edge looks certain to race well.

Ladbrokes Say: Swift Witness continues to be well supported and has been $4 into $3.70 since the barrier draw. It feels like every second bet is for her. There’s some specking for Alpine Edge ($9-$8.50). The other one is Rambeau ($101-$61). We’re on the Miss Hipstar train. Tricky barrier but thought she was enormous last week. She just needs a bit of luck to get in early, but looks a huge price at $18.

The Play: She’s All Class on top. Banker her in quinellas with Alpine Edge, Shaquero, Swift Witness and Miss Hipstar.

Ballistic Boy in Race 2 looks like one of the best value bets for Saturday. Picture: AAP.

RACE 7: MAGIC MILLIONS GUINEAS

1400M, 3YO SWP RL, 4PM

Nathan Says: What a clash … but not wanting to break the bank to single one of the three big chances out. The market loves Isotope - could hope for better than $2.40 with Away Game and Forbidden Love as rivals, but given she SP’d $1.50 her latest two, not sure they will take too many chances. Ryan Maloney (pictured) has gone through a torrid 28 days to make the weight, so hopefully for him it will be worthwhile. Think any of the three can win though. The one that looks bullet proof each way is Forbidden Love, as you know she will run 1400m, she’s proven at Group 1 level this season and comes off an arrogant last start stakes win.

Ladbrokes Say: Isotope has been $2.50 into $2.40 and popular as always. There’s specking for Shooting For Gold ($51-$41). No love for Away Game, being $3.70 out to $4. We’re going to take on Isotope here. She looks short enough in this field and thought Away Game would be fitter for this and is out to a backable price at $4.

The Play: No confidence, but hoping for a local win with Isotope.

RACE 8: MAGIC MILLIONS CUP

1400M, QTY HCP RL, 4.45PM

Nathan Says: The handicapper has been forced to take the sword to Soxagon here, with no others sticking their hand up to be top weight. It means he has gone up 5kg from the Lough Neagh win. He was totally dominant last time. That’s a similar profile to Vega One and Care To Think, who both won this race … the negative is they didn’t have 59kg. Glen Boss (pictured) can give him a soft run this time though and he will be competitive. The other one I will be backing is Baller. Drops way down in weight and all his runs have been good. Needs everything to go his way off the awful draw, but sometimes late in the day, backmarkers (think Fisticuffs last week) can get home at the Coast.

Ladbrokes Say: Sambro has been a good go at bigger odds, firming from $51 to $26. Yao Dash has also been backed, $3.90 into $3.80 and is the favourite. We’re giving Baller a chance at $26. He gets right down in the weights and hit the line good again last time. With pace on and no weight he might come over the top of them.

The Play: Soxagon at $8.50 and Baller $26

Swift Witness in Race 6 is the most backed horse for Saturday. Picture: Trackside Photography

RACE 9: MM QTIS

1300M, QTY HCP, 5.20PM

Nathan Says: The Odyssey and Boomtown Lass both ran in this last year, where they both had to do plenty of work from wide barriers. They are drawn to get a softer time of it up on speed and should be in this for a long way. That said, the 1300m looks at the outer limit for both of them and others will have their chance to gun them down. Beaufort Park will enjoy a soft trail and expecting him to finish off strongly on his home track. David Pfieffer (pictured) looks to have Yamazaki in good order again. Brilliant winner at this track, then went to the F&M race last year. This time takes the easier QTIS option. She trucked up big time in a recent Sydney trial.

Ladbrokes Say: The Odyssey has been a solid move ($9-$7). Beaufort Park is $8 into $7. Yamazaki is favourite at $4.60 after hitting the line well in Sydney. We hate tipping favourites in the last but she looks well placed with Boss on and barrier one.

The Play: Beaufort Park gets his chance, but Yamazaki will be flying at the end.

FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH

“She’s just an absolute racehorse. She turns up and goes to a new level and that’s the sign of a good horse. The barrier is obviously not ideal … but she’s not a particular one it matters too much where she draws to be honest.”

— James McDonald, She’s All Class, Race 6

“I still feel there’s further improvement. She’s had a good week and she looks great going into Saturday.”

— Adrian Bott, Swift Witness, Race 6

“I think 1400m is her right distance. I can see her running well. She just keeps improving, which is a good sign.”

— Richard Freedman, Forbidden Love, Race 7

“Having had a run the Queensland way of going now, he will only be better for it. I will need some luck, but so do a number of the others. With even luck in the run, this colt will run very well.”

“She’s really found a good rhythm this prep. This day has been the plan for a long time. The trip is perfect for her. She’s fit and well.”

— David Eustace, Snapdancer, Race 5

“He’s in a really good zone at the moment. He was even more impressive when Bobby (El-Issa) rode him. I know he’s gone up in the weights, but I suggest he will be one to follow again.”

— Glen Boss, Soxagon, Race 8

“Third time lucky hopefully. He seems to find his best run every year here at this track.”

— Bjorn Baker, Redouble, Race 8

“With James McDonald on she’s definitely in the race. She’s a dual Group 3 winner and she’s in there with a live chance.”

— Bjorn Baker, Irithea, Race 5