Eagle Farm races: Nathan Exelby’s tips, best bets and analysis

Racing editor Nathan Exelby is banking on Shooting For Gold’s class to shine through at Eagle Farm, while a former Godolphin gelding has caught his eye at $26.

Courier-Mail racing editor Nathan Exelby looks for the winners at Eagle Farm with help from the Ladbrokes bookmaking team.

EAGLE FARM

Track: Good (4); Weather: Fine

NATHAN’S SUMMARY

BEST BETS

Black Bolt (Race 3), $4.60

Shooting For Gold (Race 5), $1.90

Baller (Race 9), $4.20

VALUE

Seentoomany (Race 1), $8.50

Plague Stone (Race 8), $26

MULTI

Quinella (Race 4)

1 Shaquero/6 Astrologer

Shooting For Gold has been well backed to win again on Saturday. Picture: Greg Irvine

LADBROKES SUMMARY

BEST BACKED

Shooting For Gold (Race 5), $2-$1.90

OTHERS

The Elanora (Race 6), $2.90-$2.70

Shaquero (Race 4), $2.20-$2.10

Gee Tee Tee (Race 9), $4.80-$4.40

Galtero (Race 1), $3.60-$3.10

LAY OF THE DAY

Shaquero (Race 4), $2.10

BEST BET

Roman Aureus (Race 9), $10

R4 (2.02pm): B.J. MCLACHLAN STAKES (1200m)

Nathan Says: Good result for the race with Chris Waller electing to send the Breeders’ Plate winner Shaquero north, rather than staying in Sydney. He shapes as a top Magic Millions contender and reports suggest he’s taken another step forward since the Breeders’ and he looked sharp in the latest trial. The 1200m first-up might be the little query, so if he’s to be vulnerable, that’s it. Astrologer didn’t fire a shot at Wyong, but sharp stable (won this last year with King’s Legacy) go for blinkers on here. His Breeders’ run was very good and think he can improve sharply. Alpine Edge is also a probable big improver from the fresh win.

Ladbrokes Say: Shaquero has been $2.20 into $2.10 since it was confirmed he’s heading north and there’s been specking for Ghostwriter ($10-$8.50). Shaquero, on what we’ve seen, looks impressive and he’s the current Magic Millions favourite. Drawn one, he looks hard to beat, but he is first-up at 1200m. We give a rough chance to Lovin’ Feelin’ from the Maher-Eustace stable.

The Play: Like the SHAQUERO / ASTROLOGER quinella. Throw ALPINE EDGE in to round out the trifecta.

Magic Millions favourite Shaquero looked sharp in a recent barrier trial. Picture: Steve Hart Photographics

R5 (2.42pm): NEW YEAR’S EVE AT EAGLE FARM (1200m)

Nathan Says: Surprising to see Shooting For Gold pop up in a Class 3 Handicap, as he has bigger fish to fry, but this looks a nice stepping stone along the way. He’s shown huge promise and those that finished behind him last time like Apache Chase, Thunder Mania and Rogue Rocker all ran well behind Isotope last week. Suspect he could be an even better horse on this bigger track and he has the speed to negate the wide gate if they choose to roll forward. Good Chat can be the big improver back to 1200m. Loomed and didn’t finish off last time.

Ladbrokes Say: Shooting For Gold is popular as always, being $2 into $1.90. The other one we’ve seen money for is Warrah Flash ($14-$11). We again concede the favourite is a nice horse and back to a Class 3 looks fairly well placed. But he is drawn out, so maybe the money for Warrah Flash can be around the mark bringing Highway form to this race.

The Play: SHOOTING FOR GOLD to be too classy.

R6 (3.22pm): GRAND PRIX STAKES (2200m)

Nathan Says: This race came up thin last year, but seems much more depth this time around with several Sydney runners and a strong contingent of locals. The Elanora is bred to cope with the extra trip and relaxed well enough in Sydney last time before putting his rivals away. Expecting Glen Boss to let him roll forward off the gate like James McDonald did last time and let him prove the best horse. Tough if it’s not him. Expecting See Marie to measure up. Can be forgiving of her last-start defeat and shapes like trip will hold no fears.

Ladbrokes Say: The Elanora has been $2.90 into $2.70 and very popular from the moment we went up. Punters just want to be with him. The only other money we have seen is for Way Beyond ($17-$15), who looks the best of the local chances for us. However, NSW form looks stronger. The Elanora looks hard to beat, but giving a chance to Toscanini ($8), who hit the line hard last time.

The Play: THE ELANORA is the measuring stick.

The Harrovian is well-placed to continue his winning streak. Picture: Trackside Photography

R7 (4.02pm): BERNBOROUGH PLATE (1600m)

Nathan Says: Looks a very tricky map for a few of these … early tactics will be interesting, with Snitch, Niccanova, Gaulois, Wapiti all potential pilots, with Sikandarabad, Baccarat Baby and even The Harrovian not far away. Brad Stewart can land where he wants on The Harrovian and then just sweat on clear running in the straight. Form from his last win has stacked up strongly since. Now goes back to the mile, where he only just won two starts back, but that’s the point, he wins. Hard to find a reason to say he can’t do it again.

Ladbrokes Say: The Harrovian is $2.45 into $2.35. No love at all for Profit, who is $4.20 out to $4.60. There’s been specking for one at bigger odds, Sikandarabad, which is $18 into $15. We’ve been against The Harrovian a couple of times and he keeps putting egg on our faces. He is so well placed here and we can’t keep potting him, so we are on his side this time.

The Play: THE HARROVIAN is very well placed.

R8 (4.42pm): FALVELON QUALITY (1200m)

Nathan Says: Thought this race was a potential trap. Can find reasons to not like most of the favs … Viridine with the 61kg, Isaurian off the 350-day break, Roheryn with 57kg this grade, Special Reward with the 60kg … they can all win, but not finding any appeal in the prices being served up about them at the moment. Plague Stone has been mostly a disappointment and was just fair first-up, but think David Pfieffer might have him primed for this race. Has plenty of old ratings that make him the winner with 54kg and will be assured a good pace up front here.

Ladbrokes Say: Isaurian is $6 into $5. Hightail is $11 into $9.50. No love for Viridine, who is $3.60 out to $3.80. Godolphin obviously hold the key with three runners and we thought Roheryn might be the one of theirs at $5 with Michael Rodd to ride. He’s a ripper fresh and looks a nice enough price.

The Play: Having something on PLAGUE STONE at $26.

Former Godolphin gelding Plague Stone is a great each-way value. Picture: AAP

R9 (5.25pm): THANK YOU BRC MEMBERS QTIS (1400m)

Nathan Says: Baller has raced like he wants the extra trip both times we’ve seen him at Doomben since joining the Chris Waller stable. He’s produced ripping closing efforts in both runs and the form around him is working out strongly. Luke Dittman suggested after last time he wanted further and he gets it on the big track here. He only needs to handle the Eagle Farm surface and he’s good enough to round these up, 59.5kg and all. Stampe was terrific in the Gateway over this course and has a hope. Include Awesome Pluck in multiples.

Ladbrokes Say: Gee Tee Tee is a good mover ($4.80-$4.40), but Baller still holds favouritism at $4.20. We thought Balle deserves favouritism off the last two runs, but Roman Aureus is an interesting one here. Looked a bit flat fresh, but he was very good second up last time and trialled very nicely on Tuesday behind Jami Lady. We expect to see a different horse here and think he’s the best bet on the card.

The Play: BALLER can hopefully prove the best bet on the card.

FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH

“Can’t be any happier with him. He’s improved off the back of that first up win, which was a big effort in that grade. It’s sticky from the gate, but doesn’t look to be a great deal of speed, so it just comes down to how he steps away as to where he gets to. Provided he steps away, this big track is really going to suit him.” Matt Hoysted, SHOOTING FOR GOLD (Race 5).

“He’s going super. He worked with Shooting For Gold on Tuesday morning and it was sensational work. He goes there in really good shape, but he’s going to need another 11 out of 10 ride from Ben (Thompson).” Matt Hoysted, GEE TEE TEE (Race 9).

“His work was really good (Tuesday). He’s building nicely. He didn’t get the tempo required last time and didn’t pan out. Up to the mile, there’s plenty to like. We go there and hope, not expectation (taking on The Harrovian). It’s nice to go there as the underdog. No pressure on us and plenty on some others.” Chris Anderson, PROFIT (Race 7).

Trainer Chris Anderson couldn’t be happier with Profit. Picture: Steve Pohlner

“I was so proud of him the other day. He stuck his neck out and had a good dip. He’s back in grade and he’s going round for QTIS money. He’s a good honest galloper, he always puts in and if he gets the right run, he’s a chance again.” Chris Munce, STAMPE (Race 9).

“He was right beside Get Stuck In (last start). He’s right back in grade, Georgina (Cartwright) rides him really well and he’s the horse they’re all going to have to get past.” Tony Gollan, GALTERO (Race 1).

“His run last start over 1800m was very good. He’s crying for the distance and the 2200m at Eagle Farm is perfect for him.” Nacim Dilmi, DHAKURI (Race 6).

“Gaulois was a good run last start. He had way too much weight on his back and we were very happy with his run. He had a good gallop on the grass (on Tuesday) and he’s coming to the race in good order.” Nacim Dilmi, GAULOIS (Race 7).