Eagle Farm races: Nathan Exelby’s tips and analysis

Racing editor Nathan Exelby and the bookmaking team from Ladbrokes pinpoint the horses to back and ones to avoid at Eagle Farm. Plus, Peter Moody’s tips for the Newmarket Handicap at Flemington.

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Courier-Mail racing editor Nathan Exelby looks for the winners at Eagle Farm, with help from the Ladbrokes bookmaking team. Plus, analysis and tips for the Group 1 races at Randwick and Flemington.

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NATHAN’S SUMMARY

BEST BETS

The Kingdom (Race 1) $1.95

Quality Seeker (Race 6) $1.90

Emerald Kingdom (Race 8) $1.60

FLEMINGTON

Loving Gaby (Race 6) $5

RANDWICK

Castelvecchio (Race 7) $4.80

VALUE

Epicurious (Race 9) $16

Harlem/Mirage Dancer (Flemington, Race 8) $14/$10

LADBROKES SUMMARY

BEST BACKED

Star Of Michelin (Race 9) $3.70-$3.40

Sugar Buzz (Race 5) $31-$19

Ingear (Race 2) $1.85-$1.75

Don’t Leave Me Out (Race 7) $13-$11

BEST BET

Tumbler Ridge (Race 3) $7

LAY OF THE DAY

Bellissimi Amici (Race 3) $2.90

RANDWICK

Farnan (Race 2) $2.90-$2.50

The Bostonian (Race 5) $15-$12

Warning (Race 7) $12-$7.50

FLEMINGTON

Loving Gaby (Race 6) $6-$5

Avilius (Race 8) $4.50-$3.50

LATEST BETTING: LADBROKES.COM.AU

Quality Seeker will be hard to hold out at Eagle Farm. Picture: AAP

EAGLE FARM

Track: Good (4); Weather: Possible Shower, 29C

RACE 4 (2.17pm): CLASS 3 PLATE (1000m)

NATHAN SAYS: Thin looking race since Platinum Euros came out. Ruuca is the obvious one after winning at Moonee Valley last spring and then being thought of highly enough by Toby and Trent Edmonds to send into the Coolmore. Was rolled by Go Deep at this track and distance before heading south, but the assumption is he went a long way forward from that day. Recent trial suggested he’s come back in good order and he gets the barrier to ensure he will have every chance to resume a winner against average opposition. After further scratchings for dual acceptors, it looks like he’s going to go around long odds-on here, so seems a nice race to sit and watch. Take him out and it looks a real lottery. Missie Archer, Soubrette and Cailini perhaps next best.

LADBROKES SAY: We have thrown our hands up here a little bit. Ruuca was popular at $2.15 prior to Platinum Euros coming out and now it’s into $1.80 and still pretty popular. Nothing backed to beat it. Bad luck looks our only hope of getting a result.

THE PLAY: You don’t have to bet in them all.

RACE 5 (2.57pm): BENCHMARK 75 HCP (1600m)

NATHAN SAYS: Looks a good clash between Plitvice and Slow Hands. Plitvice won well here two starts back then was too far back when Peppi La Few totally dominated last time. Steps up to the mile, which poses no problem for him, and the Adin Thompson-Rob Heathcote combination is starting to blossom, with a couple of winners in the past week. He’s the one with the better strike rate, but feel Slow Hands is coming off a formline just as strong, having matched strides with The Kingdom his last couple. He’s busting to win a Saturday race and there was a good margin back to third-placed Great Powers last time. Very little between that pair in the numbers and might come down to luck in running.

LADBROKES SAY: The punters have come for an interesting one here. Sugar Buzz had been $31 into $19 and meets the favourite better at the weights with Maddy Wishart taking 3kg off. Plitvice has been solid at $2.80 and there’s no love for Slow Hands ($3.30-$3.40). We don’t have a strong opinion either way here.

THE PLAY: SLOW HANDS marginally in front of PLITVICE.

Plitvice won well at Eagle Farm last month. Picture: AAP

RACE 6 (3.37pm): BENCHMARK 75 HCP (2200m)

NATHAN SAYS: Quality Seeker came to Brisbane and made a mess of a weak bunch of rivals a fortnight back, giving Matt McGillivray an armchair ride. Up in weight here, Ciaron Maher and David Eustace opt for Louise Day’s 3kg claim after she rode a Newcaslte winner for Kris Lees last week. This is a lovely ride for her, as Quality Seeker makes his own luck on the speed and he’s drawn to be there without doing any work. Twilighter wasn’t as sharp on the quick back-up three weeks ago after a big win the week before. This is a logical step in distance for her now and she can race well if she gets any luck from the draw. Penshurst next best, but it’s a tick over two years since his last win.

LADBROKES SAY: The Gatton punters are up and about, as Maxwell has been $101 into $71. At the top end of the market, Quality Seeker has been solid at $1.90 and there’s been some specking for Penshurst ($6). They look the two, but not an overly popular race early.

THE PLAY: QUALITY SEEKER to be too good again.

RACE 7 (4.13pm): CLASS 6 HCP (1200m)

NATHAN SAYS: Epic Girl had the better of Boomtown Lass over the summer at this course, but felt the latter raced below her best that day. Doubt there’s a lot between them and they both should be improved for their fresh hitouts here a fortnight ago. Epic Girl should cross easily and can see Boomtown Lass getting across to be not far away from her. At the weights, have to concede hopes to Defence Missile and Simply Splashing, who meet Boomtown Lass 5.5kg and 8kg better respectively for last time. Like the Ladbrokes team, think that pair can add some value to multiples here.

LADBROKES SAY: Looks like Chris Anderson holds the key with Epic Girl ($3-$2.90) and Boomtown Lass (solid at $4.50). There has also been specking for last start Gold Coast winner Don’t Leave Me Out, who was scratched from an easier race at Caloundra last night, which is a fair indicator the camp is confident he can run well here. We’re sticking with the Emerald Kingdom formlines, thinking Simply Splashing at $26 and Defence Missile at $9 both look good value.

THE PLAY: Tipping an Anderson quinella.

Boomtown Lass has been solid in betting. Picture: AAP

RACE 8 (4.50pm): OPEN HCP (1400m)

NATHAN SAYS: Rob Heathcote stretches Emerald Kingdom out to 1400m for the first time. He’s building a superb record and the way he settled in front last time and then came away at the end, you wouldn’t think the extra trip is going to hold any fears for him. The scratching of Ken’s Dream is going to put a bigger squeeze on an already skinny price though. Looking for minors, Qiji Phoenix is going great guns at the moment and did take ground off Emerald Kingdom at the end last time. Auerbach down in the weights is ready to improve to his best now.

LADBROKES SAY: Here’s our nemesis Emerald Kingdom. The punters haven’t charged in yet, he’s been $1.75 out to $1.80. He goes to 1400m for the first time, Open company ... it may be a little Stradbroke test? He’s $51 in that race, so it will be interesting to see how he handles the Eagle Farm 1400m. Auerbach has been $17 into $16, which is the only one they’ve tried to beat him.

THE PLAY: EMERALD KINGDOM to be short but sweet.

RACE 9 (5.30pm): QTIS 3YO HCP (1400m)

NATHAN SAYS: Finally a race with a bit of depth, but the favourite looks hard to beat again. Stuart Kendrick scratched Star Of Michelin a fortnight back, which he may have regretted after watching the winner of that race (Naval Strike) come from last to blow them away. Now appears 35 days between runs, so should be still fresh enough for the 1400m. Ballistic Boy was only average in the Naval Strike race but will be fitter. Have to give Dee Day Diva a chance off her run there. Epicurious is one at odds that can run on strongly. She competed against some of the state’s best 3yo’s last prep and wasn’t disgraced, before winning her maiden easily. Has trialled OK.

LADBROKES SAY: Star Of Michelin ($3.70-$3.40) has been the best backed horse all day, while Ballistic Boy has gone the other way ($3.80-$4). Some promising types in this race and we thought Zouvilla for the Tony Gollan-Baylee Nothdurft combination might be a knockout hope at double figures.

THE PLAY: Giving EPICURIOUS a hope at $16.

Loving Gaby is good value to upset the boys in the Newmarket Handicap. Picture: AAP

GROUP 1 PREVIEWS

NEWMARKET HCP

The boys have been spruiked as being part of a so-called stellar crop, but to this point, Loving Gaby has mostly gone unheralded for her feats. Her latest three runs at Group 1 WFA have all been outstanding. Won what was a weak Manikato, but then had several topliners in her wake when second in the Sprint Classic behind Nature Strip. She then put that horse to the sword in the Lightning, only to be robbed by the uncertainty of straight track racing.

VERDICT: Given the history against first-uppers and BIVOUAC coming off a query run, think LOVING GABY is a great play at $5.

AUSTRALIAN CUP

This race has turned into a bit of a lottery in recent years and don’t think this year is much easier. Avilius was beaten at odds-on last year coming off winning form. Think he looks short enough now. Harlem arrives with superior lead-up form to the past two years and is drawn to get it soft. That Miss Siska race two weeks ago was full of encouraging runs. Mirage Dancer was one of them and he looks on target now for an in-form stable. Melbourne Cup winners have a handy record in this race and Vow And Declare doesn’t need to improve much on his Turnbull run in the spring to give it a shake.

VERDICT: Super tough, but HARLEM, VOW AND DECLARE and MIRAGE DANCER have claims at the odds.

RANDWICK GUINEAS

A mile would have been too short for Castelvecchio in the spring, but stable said he really turned the corner after going to Melbourne, so he may be sharper now. Liked the way he wound up late in the Hobartville and on what should be a testing track, he’s surely hard to hold out here. Reloaded was only second-up off a long break in the Hobartville and will be fitter again.

VERDICT: Class to shine with CASTELVECCHIO.

Castelvecchio will be chasing his second Group 1 win in the Randwick Guineas. Picture: Getty Images

MOODY VIEWS

Peter Moody runs his eye over the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap.

TACTICS

How the straight plays on the day will go a long way to deciding the tactics of many jockeys. Would not surprise to see Despatch lead, but Bivouac has early toe and expect Glen Boss to settle him on the speed. Dwayne Dunn on Exceedance will follow Bivouac wherever he goes and Loving Gaby won’t be far away. Ben Melham might pile on the pressure with Gytrash. It will be interesting what Brett Prebble elects to do on The Inevitable. Finding the right lane in the Flemington straight could prove crucial.

I LIKE

I’ve always had a big opinion of Loving Gaby. She is the one three-year-old in this field that has taken on and beaten the older horses. Her win in the Ladbrokes Manikato Stakes during the spring was excellent and she has backed that up with impressive efforts in the Darley Sprint Classic and the Black Caviar Lightning. I really liked the way she found the line late in the Lightning and she probably would have won if she was on the other side of the track. She has the turn-of-foot to finish over the top of her rivals.

I DON’T LIKE

No knock on Bivouac ($5) and Exceedance ($5), I’ve got them both in my first four, but I can’t get either as short as their current price. Bivouac has taken on the older horses twice, but has failed to get the job done. For Exceedance, it is difficult to win a Newmarket first-up and it would not surprise me if Team Hawkes were using this race as a tune-up for the TJ Smith Stakes during The Championships.

SUMMARY

Loving Gaby has had an ideal preparation and her run in the Black Caviar Lightning was exactly what you want to see heading into a race like this. She is weighted to win and will prove tough to hold out. There is no reason Gytrash can’t be in the mix again. He has three wins from as many starts at Flemington and he won the Black Caviar Lighting fair and square. You can’t knock Bivouac or Exceedance.

TIP: LOVING GABY @ $5.50

DANGER: GYTRASH @ $8