Eagle Farm races: Nathan Exelby’s tips and analysis

Racing editor Nathan Exelby and the bookmaking team from Ladbrokes pinpoint the horses to back and the ones to avoid at Eagle Farm. Plus, Peter Moody gives his take on the Orr Stakes at Caulfield.

• Mixed reaction to Thursday city races

• Weekend best bets: Have faith in Sylvia’s Mother

The Courier-Mail racing editor Nathan Exelby and the team at Ladbrokes look for the winners at Eagle Farm on Saturday.

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NATHAN’S SUMMARY

BEST BETS

Mishani Machine (Race 1) $3.60

Silvera (Race 6) $3.20

Snowzone/Baby Boomer (Race 8) $3.50/$4.80

BEST VALUE

Basanite (Race 3) $17

Gala Miss (Race 4) $14

Qiji Phoenix (Race 9) $7.50

LADBROKES MARKET WATCH

BEST BACKED

Silvera (Race 6) $3.90-$3.20

OTHERS

Sofie’s Gold Class (Race 7) $4.40-$4

Snowzone (Race 8) $3.90-$3.50

Baby Boomer (Race 8) $6-$4.80

BEST BET

Zigallene (Race 4) $21

LAY OF THE DAY

Katy’s Daughter (Race 5) $2.35

Silvera has been well backed to win at Eagle Farm. Picture: AAP

EAGLE FARM

Track: Soft (7). Weather: Rain.

RACE 4 (2.23pm): 3YO OPEN HCP (1600m)

NATHAN SAYS: The placegetters coming out of the Vanna Girl race all take a big hike at the weights here. They are obviously weighted that way for a reason, but looking elsewhere. Gala Miss was plain last week, but prepared to overlook that, as her three previous runs this prep were all good. Thinking the sting out of the ground is going to really suit her and have no query going up to the mile. Playthefield was outstanding for Stu Kendrick in the MM Maiden and then found the same trip too sharp last time. The mile might just be what he’s been looking for.

LADBROKES SAY: Playthefield has been $12 into $9.50 and Vanna Girl $4.50 into $4.40. Stuttering is still the favourite, but no support yet, being $3.90 out to $4. We are giving a knockout chance to Zigallene, which meets them all better at the weights coming through the Vanna Girl race. They all go up a lot in weight trying to run her down and at $21 we think she’s a good spec.

THE PLAY: Giving GALA MISS another chance at the $14 and something on PLAYTHEFIELD at $9.50.

RACE 5 (3.02pm): BM70 HCP (1200m)

NATHAN SAYS: Katy’s Daughter has been terrific since Steve O’Dea brought her back from a two-year break. Outstanding effort in a strong race on the Gold Coast, when giving a good kick on hot speed. Then proved a class above hapless rivals last time. No reason she can’t go on with it now and wouldn’t surprise if she started significantly shorter than the price being bet at the moment. Wary of Shamurt at $12. Trials have looked just OK, but her overall form is very good for a race like this, despite her not winning. Very well placed here. Racecourse Road is the probable big improver. The first-up run is not a true reflection of his ability.

LADBROKES SAY: This is a tricky one from the point of view that Mittere and Moonshine Lady both have no jockeys engaged at the moment, so tempo very relevant. Would give Mittere a good hope leading on its own if Moonshine Lady comes out. Katy’s Daughter is the most progressive horse in the field. There was early money for her and she got into as short as $2.20 but has eased to $2.35. Molly’s Rocking is $19 into $17.

THE PLAY: Going against the Ladbrokes lay and sticking with KATY’S DAUGHTER. Can couple her up in multis with RACECOURSE ROAD and SHAMURT.

Katy's Daughter has returned from a two-year break in great form. Picture: Grant Peters, Trackside Photography

RACE 6 (3.42pm): OPEN HCP (1600m)

NATHAN SAYS: Cool Chap has shed his bridesmaid tag and is in beast mode at the moment. Dominant two back then coasted home again last week. Hard to poke holes in his form at the moment, other than the handicapper getting a tighter grip on him now. Weights will give rival connections hope of bringing him undone here and the logical one is Silvera, who gets a 5kg swing on their latest meeting. He loves it wet, so conditions will suit and he comes off a good last start effort in Listed grade. Importantly, he’s back to his pet trip here and provided Baylee Nothdurft can get in from the gate, he looks hard to beat. New Universe is another that will enjoy the weight pull this time, while Spectroscope is a must for multiples. He’s going great guns.

LADBROKES SAY: Good go for Silvera and he’s $3.90 into $3.20. There’s been some specking for Cool Chap ($3-$2.80) and they are the only two they want. We thought it probably looked the right race for Silvera.

THE PLAY: SILVERA to rediscover his winning ways.

RACE 7 (4.22pm): 0MW HCP (1400m)

NATHAN SAYS: Sofie’s Gold Class is the best horse here and she’s down in the weights coming off a ripper last-start effort behind a couple of handy ones. Has since trialled stylishly. Barrier means she will be giving away a big start, but she might still be too good for them. Fomo was terrific at big odds first-up on the Sunshine Coast. No worries second-up and no problem up to this trip. He should be giving a big sight on the speed here, especially with Steph Thornton just lightening up his impost a little. Chances galore outside that pair, including Alot Like Home (who may well appreciate this trip now), Ramtastic and Bold Warrior.

LADBROKES SAY: Good money for Sophie’s Gold Class. She’s $4.40 into $4 after she had the flashing lights on with her last run. Alot Like Home has been $26 into $18. It always sends a few shivers up our spine when there’s money for the Barry Lockwood runners. Bold Warrior is top pick for us, but there’s plenty of chances.

THE PLAY: FOMO still looks value at $10 each-way and can save on SOPHIE’S GOLD CLASS at the $4.

RACE 8 (5.02pm): 3YO OPEN HCP (1200m)

NATHAN SAYS: Snowzone has been very good this prep with the blinkers on. Andrew Mallyon bided his time on the rails at Doomben and when the gap opened he exploded away from his rivals. Tougher here, but against his own age and still down in the weights, he looks very hard to beat, particularly getting the same run as last time. Baby Boomer looks a big danger. Superb first-up effort when he just failed to gun down the classy filly Better Reflection. Looks like he’s come back better this time and 1200m should hold no fears. Master Jamie has a super record and will give them something to catch, but the other pair get their chance with 6kg and 7kg off him.

LADBROKES SAY: They have found two and levelled them both. Baby Boomer has been $6 into $4.80 and Snowzone $3.90 to $3.50. No love for Master Jamie with the monster weight ($4.50-$5). We are in the corner of Baby Boomer, coming off what we think is the better formline. To that end, Clear The Bill meets him better coming out of the same race and is a hope at $21.

THE PLAY: Market is tightening up, but confident either SNOWZONE or BABY BOOMER will be winning.

RACE 9 (5.42pm): CLASS 6 HCP (1200m)

NATHAN SAYS: Typically strong Class 6 with plenty of depth. Qiji Phoenix had trialled like a bomb for Kacie Fogden before running right up to it when a dominant fresh winner in super strong figures at Doomben, beating two subsequent winners. Then tossed in the deep end and failed to stretch out. Has had 42 days since and don’t mind a bit of cut out of the track for him. The Michael Costa pair Phobetor and Malahide both rate as hard to beat here based on their respective wins this time in. Think this looks tougher for Winter Passage this time and Dream Master, even with the weight relief. Suspect Auerbach is capable of running a race fresh. Measured up to Open company last prep.

LADBROKES SAY: Qiji Phoenix is the only go in the race so far, being $9 into $7.50. Malahide has been $4 out to $4.20 but remains favourite over the stablemate Phobetor ($5). We give Invincible Gangsta a knockout chance to save the day at $19.

THE PLAY: Hoping the real QIJI PHOENIX comes to play and rounds them up.

Trainer Tony Gollan has some good winning chances at Eagle Farm. Picture: AAP

FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH

“I think she’s very much a value runner in this race.” TONY GOLLAN, Shamurt (Race 5).

“Everything about (last start) tells you he wants a mile. He presents very good for Saturday’s race, the barrier is a bit tricky, but I will leave that to Baylee (Nothdurft). He’s very adaptable in the way we can ride him. He ticks a lot of boxes for me, he’s very well weighted, Saturday’s the day.” GOLLAN on Silvera (Race 6).

“(Baby Boomer) will get the right run, relax, come off them and really attack the line. He’s trained on beautifully, his work here Tuesday was fantastic and he’s the right horse for this race. If (Air Spirit) can make the field she will be a formidable chance in this race. I suggest there’s not a great deal between these two.” GOLLAN on Baby Boomer and Air Spirit (Race 8).

“He has the grandstand (61kg), but he is so consistent he was always going to get a big weight. He has won on heavy tracks in Mackay and Rockhampton, so rain is no worry. But getting through a heavy track with 61kg could be.” GRAEME GREEN, Master Jamie (Race 8).

“Mark (Du Plessis) has ridden Art Attack at his past two starts and he seems to go best for senior jockeys. He has been placed on soft going and he has drawn well.” BARRY LOCKWOOD, Art Attack (Race 2).

“She is a get-back type and she made up a stack of ground from back in the field at her first run. I have put blinkers on, which should help, and the bigger track at Eagle Farm will give her the chance to run down the frontrunners.” ROB HEATHCOTE, Bellissimi Amici (Race 1).

“He has drawn the extreme outside barrier but he gets back anyway, so it shouldn’t be a major problem.” STUART KENDRICK, Playthefield (Race 4).

MOODY VIEWS

Peter Moody runs his eye over the Group 1 CF Orr Stakes.

TACTICS

Hey Doc has gone forward to take up the running in his three starts since he returned to the races in the Kevin Heffernan Stakes in November and there is no reason to change tactics in this contest. Begood Toya Mother settled midfield in the Australia Stakes, but I expect Declan Bates to ride him a bit more aggressively in this race. Scales Of Justice should be able to settle just behind the leading pair and will get a lovely run in transit for the second start in a row. The tactics of Michael Dee on Alabama Express will be interesting, as he is the only speed horse drawn towards the outside of the field.

Scales Of Justice is the horse to beat in the CF Orr Stakes. Picture: AAP

I LIKE

This really does look like the ideal race for Scales Of Justice. His first-up win in the Australia Stakes was classy and he should only improve on that performance. The step up to 1400m is ideal for him and he beat a similar field to win the Memsie Stakes, over the same track and distance, in the spring.

I DON’T LIKE

The two horses that I am happy to take on at their current odds are Begood Toya Mother and Avilius. Daniel Bowman has done a terrific job with Begood Toya Mother and it was great to see him claim a maiden Group 1 victory in the Ladbrokes Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, but I’m not sure he is good enough to make the step up to weight-for-age company. There are some question marks over Avilius after the fairly flat way he finished the spring. I still think he will be a leading contender for races such as the Australian Cup and Ranvet Stakes, but I don’t think trainer James Cummings will have him at anywhere near his top for this.

SUMMARY

I think Scales Of Justice is perfectly placed. He has clearly been set for this contest and the run under his belt in the Australia Stakes gives him an edge over some of his main rivals. Hey Doc wasn’t beaten far by Scales Of Justice in the Australia Stakes and the step up to 14000m might prove ideal for him. Fierce Impact went to another level during the spring and it will be interesting to see how he fares.

TIP

SCALES OF JUSTICE @ $2.80

Danger: HEY DOC @ $5.50