Doomben races: Nathan Exelby’s tips, best bets and analysis

So You Win is Nathan Exelby’s best bet of the day and Ladbrokes' best backed of the day at Doomben.

So You Win (R) is the best bet, and backed horse for the day. Picture: AAP Image/Simon Bullard

Nathan Exelby looks for the winners at Doomben with help from the Ladbrokes bookmaking team.

DOOMBEN

Track: Good (4)

Weather: Fine

NATHAN’S SUMMARY

Best Bets

SO YOU WIN, Race 6, $2.50

JONKER, Race 8, $2.70

Value

SHAJAEA, Race 1, $9

AWESOME PLUCK, Race 7, $8

GOTTA KISS, Race 9, $9

Multis

Race 6

Banker Quinella

3 So You Win (banker)

With 9 Free Fly too, 4 Get Stuck In, 1 Grey Lion

Jonker is the Ladbrokes ‘Lay of the Day’. Picture: Trackside Photography

LADBROKES SUMMARY

Best Backed

SO YOU WIN, Race 6, $3-$2.50

Others

ISOTOPE, Race 9, $2.25-$2.10

TOKORIKI LAD, Race 3, $2.60-$2.40

ROGUE ROCKER, Race 5, $15-$9

HARD EMPIRE, Race 8, $8-$6.50

Lay of the Day

JONKER, Race 8, $2.70

Best Bet:

THUNDER MANIA, Race 5, $16

RACE 4, Country Cups Challenge Final, 1600m, NMW last 2 years, 2.03pm

Nathan Says: Looking forward to seeing Paniagua strut his stuff. Terrific story for trainer Alex Malliff and his wife Kellie, having strung together seven straight wins after they gave just $600 for him. Showed versatility to come back in trip last time and still land the prize. The booking of Robert Thompson adds to the story around him. Maquereau is putting together a handy record of his own and wasn’t far off Paniagua last time, having won the Innisfail Cup prior. He too will be suited by the extra journey. Eschielle is the other one the market is giving a big hope to. He’s won six of his past 12 and only just missed at Roma last time.

Ladbrokes Say: Paniagua has been $2.90 into $2.60. The only other one there has been money for is Splitz, who is $21 into $18. We’ve seen the far North Queensland form stack up pretty well coming to town, so the Paniagua form looks good enough in a race where it’s almost impossible to line up the form.

The Play: Paniagua and Maquereau to fight it out again … 1680km south of their last meeting.

RACE 5 , Roku Gin Winning Rupert Plate, 1200m, 3yo C & G, 2.43pm

Nathan Says: This is a race with plenty of chances, so thought Shooting For Gold (pictured) looked short enough given that scenario. He is super promising and looked the part in his trial on Tuesday, but still has to take another step forward. Goldsborough was pretty plain at Caloundra after good first up win. Can he bounce back? Acrobatic and Kavak shaped okay behind Shooting For Gold in the trial, while Thunder Mania has the best performance of any of them, with his sixth in the J.J. Atkins. Rogue Rocker and Apache Chase are also promising.

Ladbrokes Say: Good move for Rogue Rocker, the John Smerdon trained runner. He is $15 into $11 and the punters were keen to back it as soon as we put prices up off the back of the impressive debut win. Goldsborough is $4.80 into $4.40 and Acrobatic has been $8.50 into $6.50. Shooting For Gold is $2.20 out to $2.40 as a result. Some very promising horses here and one we think is at good odds is Thunder Mania at $16. Gets a nice run from barrier three after ripper Atkins run in June.

The Play: The fav on top but he’s short enough. Watching and learning here.

RACE 6, Queensland is Good to Go, 2000m, Open Qty Hcp, 3.23pm

Nathan Says: So You win dropped back to the mile at the Sunshine Coast and looked likely to go back-to-back before Ballistic Boy arrived in the nick of time. These Chris Waller (pictured) horses just continue to turn up time after time and that being the case, he looks perfectly placed in this race, getting a sweet run behind them and letting go in the straight. Thought Free Fly Too might be one of the hardest to run down. He’s fitter for that Sunny Coast run and his middle distance form has been superb for Desleigh Forster.

Ladbrokes Say: So You Win is a good move, being $3 into $2.50. The other one we’ve seen money for is Get Stuck In ($12-$8.50). Concede the favourite is a great chance, but he’s short enough now and happy enough to make a play for Magnufighter at $13. Came from the same spot as So You Win, but was held up for most of the straight. Brad Stewart goes on here and goes well at the track/distance.

The Play: So You Win. Saver on Free Fly Too.

Awesome Pluck gts in well at the set weights. Picture: AAP Image/Jono Searle

RACE 7, Kidney Health Australia Plate, 1350m, C6 SW, 4.03pm

Nathan Says: Awesome Pluck has run well in two handicap runs since resuming for the Desleigh Forster stable and now gets in beautifully at the weights owing to the set weights here. He looks ready to run 1350m now and the Boomtown Lass formline from last start is a good one for this. With Peppi La Few and Shadow Of Time ensuring a genuine tempo, looking forward to seeing him get out and ripping home. Stuttering was a total ignore run last time. He’s usually so consistent and he can bounce straight back here off the handy draw.

Ladbrokes Say: Shadow Of Time is $13 into $11 and the only real move so far. Punters are giving the race a wide berth. Stuttering remains favourite at $5. We thought Stuttering was short enough even allowing for the issues last start. One that isn’t in well at the weights and drawn awkwardly is Deep Euphoria, but has a gear change here, plus Michael Rodd on after running a nice sectional last time. If she gets some luck think she’s a chance at $51 each way.

The Play: Awesome Pluck appeals at $8 and Stuttering is the other one I want on-side.

RACE 8, TAB George Moore Stakes, 1200m, Qty Hcp G3, 4.43pm

Nathan Says: Jonker’s exploits in the Keith Noud have been well-documented. The question now is whether you think he can repeat. Even if he doesn’t run to that same level, he’s still got a margin to spare. Jim Byrne (pictured) doesn’t have to be as urgent early here, so a lot will depend on how he handles the speed of The Odyssey outside him and if he has to adapt sitting in behind, given he was so effective free-wheeling in front last time. There’s some queries, but expected him to be significantly shorter than $2.70, so I’m happy to play. Looks a lottery of a race away from him. Hard Empire should have finished closer last time, while Deep Image, Chapter And Verse, Tambo’s Mate and Outback Barbie can all race well.

Ladbrokes Say: Hard Empire is $8 into $6.50. Jonker is popular at $2.70, but we’ve held our ground with him. He ran them into the ground first up, but we’re going to take him on. There’s been six runners out of the race and none of them have run a place yet, so going for a different formline and giving Outback Barbie a chance at $15.

The Play: Jonker to repeat the dose.

RACE 9, XXXX Mode Plate, 1200m, 3yo F LR, 5.18pm

Nathan Says: Like the Winning Rupert, there’s good depth here. Isotope was stiff after bombing the start first up and concede she’s a great hope. But at the odds, have to be with Gotta Kiss. She was superb fresh running on under 60kg at a trip short of her best. Now meets the winner 6kg better. Her two-year-old form was just as good as Isotope, being unlucky behind September Run and then enormous in the Atkins. Steph Thornton (pictured) will have to give away a start from the gate, but hoping they come back to her in the straight and she can get them down. Fleet Dove and Plutocrat the other main hopes.

Ladbrokes Say: Isotope has been very popular and is $2.25 into $2.10. Punters wanted to be involved as soon as the market went up and it’s one way traffic. She looks a very promising filly and is drawn well with Ryan Maloney to ride, but will be a horror result for us, so we’re looking for something to beat it. We were against Paredo last time, but hoping she might be our saviour this time. Form from her last win has been good.

The Play: Gotta Kiss appeals at the $9.