Doomben races: Nathan Exelby’s tips, best bets and analysis

Racing editor Nathan Exelby can’t go past the class of Glorious Ruby at Doomben, while Garibaldi is all the rage with punters in the last.

Glorious Ruby will be hard to beat at Doomben. Picture: Trackside Photography

The Courier-Mail racing editor Nathan Exelby looks for the winners at Doomben, with help from the Ladbrokes bookmaking team.

NATHAN’S SUMMARY

BEST BETS

Glorious Ruby, Race 4, $3.50

Garibaldi, Race 9, $1.95

Regardsmaree (Flemington), Race 3, $2.20

VALUE

Great Keppell, Race 8, $8.50

LADBROKES SUMMARY

BEST BACKED

Garibaldi, Race 9, $2.20-$1.95

Leadership Spill, Race 1, $3.60-$3.10

Jetski, Race 6, $3.90-$3.60

Legal Esprit, Race 4, $5.50-$4.60

Ashman, Race 7, $15-$11

LAY OF THE DAY

Azzareach, Race 3, $2.70

BEST BET

Bushido, Race 5, $5

Glorious Ruby is drawn to get a nice run at Doomben. Picture: Trackside Photography

DOOMBEN

Track: Good (4); Weather: Chance of a shower, 32C.

RACE 4

Nathan Says: Think Glorious Ruby is a class above these. She was specked at huge odds on debut and ran very well in a hot race. Then proved it was no fluke by taking up the running and being a dominant winner at the Sunshine Coast. The trick now is to come back to 1050m from the 1200m, but she’s drawn to get a nice run in behind the speedier ones if need be and then finish over the top of them. I’m hoping the early price assessors have this one wrong and do expect her to trim up from what’s been offered early. Legal Esprit looks the hardest to run down. Put good margins through the field winning at the Gold Coast, with one of the beaten division having run well behind Mishani Delight prior.

Ladbrokes Say: Money for Legal Esprit ($5.50-$4.60) and also Glorious Ruby ($3.70-$3.50). We thought they looked an even lot. Our Hot Friend at $15 might be over the odds. Last start Eagle Farm win, but has raced against some nice horses during his career and looks over the odds in a race that doesn’t have a lot of depth.

The Play: GLORIOUS RUBY to win again.

RACE 5

Nathan Says: The key here is whether Good Chat will see out 1350m. He brings the strongest formlines to the table, having placed behind promising horses in each of his past three runs. Doesn’t face any in the same class here. He did place over this course earlier in his career where he had to work early after being slowly away, so it shouldn’t be a huge issue. He does need to find a spot from the nine gate though. Bushido won twice in solid figures at Ipswich, then fair effort at Eagle Farm behind an enigmatic one that put it all together on the day. He gets all favours here and is in nicely after the claim for Sheriden Tomlinson.

Ladbrokes Say: Good Chat is $2.90 into $2.70 and we’ve also seen some specking for Zulu Dancer ($15-$12). The favourite obviously has some nice formlines, but we’re pretty keen on Bushido. He’s a front-running horse who is finding the line and even though beaten last time, though it was a strong effort and happy to be involved at $5.

The Play: Not keen to get too involved. Perhaps boxed quinella with GOOD CHAT, BUSHIDO and SCOTTISH MIST.

Trainer Les Kelly will saddle-up Take Tea at Doomben. Picture: Grant Peters, Trackside Photography

RACE 6

Nathan Says: Nothing between Jetski and What The Fuss at Caloundra and both are drawn to get their chance over the slightly longer trip here. Don’t think there should be much between them in the market. Then there’s Take Tea, who showed promise as a three-year-old and may be back on track after producing some big closing numbers to win at Eagle Farm. When runners from the Les Kelly team find form, they generally hold it and expect her to race well again. From that same race, Bryneich ran into a bit of trouble and should have been closer. Erringhi Spring can also improve off that race and then there’s Slow Hands, who rarely wins, but does have a motor.

Ladbrokes Say: Good money for the favourite Jetski ($3.90-$3.60). He’s very popular here. Bryneich is $26 into $18 off another formline. The punters might be on the mark there. He doesn’t win out of turn, but with no weight and out of the same race as Take Tea, at the prices he looks the better bet.

The Play: TAKE TEA at $5.50.

RACE 7

Nathan Says: Socialising had to do a big job to pick up and win here three weeks ago and the form stacked up strongly at Eagle Farm last week, with the two behind her running the quinella in Open grade. She now goes beyond 1200m for the first time since joining Tony Gollan, but her form prior in Victoria says it won’t be a problem. Phantom Falcon arrives 35 days between runs after being part of a hot tempo up front at the Gold Coast crossing from a wide gate. There shouldn’t be as much pressure here and the Doomben 1350m is a good fit for him in this grade. Grey Missile trialled well then didn’t go a yard at Eagle Farm. Back to Doomben and down in the weights, he can be a big improver here.

Ladbrokes Say: Ashman has been a good move ($15-$11). There’s some specking for Grey Missile as well ($9-$8). Socialising went up $2 and there’s been no love, so she’s out to $2.15. We’re not sure why that is. We think she looks very hard to beat.

The Play: At the odds, hoping PHANTOM FALCON can get some soft splits up front.

Ryan Maloney has a good record on Great Keppell.

RACE 8

Nathan Says: Plenty of chances here, but happy to be with Great Keppell. He was a good winner at this track three starts back, then flopped at Eagle Farm, before tradesman-like effort here last time. Based on that, think he’s ready to go the 1600m now and Ryan Maloney gets on well with this horse. The other one I’m interested in is Sir Barnabus ($16) … he has raced very well over the mile first-up in his past two preps and recent trial looked OK.

Ladbrokes Say: Oakfield Missile has found some friends and is $21 into $17. Great Keppell has been $10 into $8.50. Couldn’t Refuse is the favourite and has been $4.60 into $4.40. Looks a very even race. We ended up with Oakfield Missile at the price. Two starts back did run second in a stakes race and from a good gate looks a chance at the price. Mangione gets down in the weights and even though he’s a gunner, we give him a chance.

The Play: GREAT KEPPELL and SIR BARNABUS at the odds.

RACE 9

Nathan Says: This is a good race with some depth, but it might be a case of a stakes-class horse striking an off-season race. Garibaldi has shed the nasty tags he wore in the early part of his career to become the furnished product now. He could have won by further last time had Michael Rodd not turned off the engines. Ruuca has had the wood on him and gets the better of the weights, but just banking on Garibaldi having gone to a new level now and barriers mean Ruuca will be giving him a start. Snow Valley is the other one going super. She was terrific in the MM F&M and back to 1200m suits.

Ladbrokes Say: The go of the day is Garibaldi, as he’s $2.20 into $1.95 and it’s all one-way traffic. No moves for anything else. We can’t tip a favourite in the last, even though Garibaldi looks very much new and improved, so we’re with Ruuca. He’s beaten Garibaldi the two times they’ve met and he gets a pull in the weights from last time they met, so we’re with him at $6.

The Play: GARIBALDI to win again and making him the standout in the quinella with RUUCA and SNOW VALLEY.

Garibaldi has been well backed to win on Saturday. Picture: Trackside Photography

FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH

The Tony Gollan stable has had a couple of shorties go under over the past two Saturdays and punters will be out to recoup some of their losses – and then some – when the leading yard trots out four favourites at Doomben. Here is how Gollan assesses his team.

Race 1: CHICO MILAGRO, LEADERSHIP SPILL

“Leadership Spill) is a specialist at this trip. He’s very forward, he will get the right run and his stablemate will be spotting him a fair start. He’s on top purely because of the barrier and the distance. (Chico Milagro) just needs to try and slot in and get some cover and stretch out late and run on. The barrier makes it tough, but the horse is going particularly well for this grade of race.”

Race 2: MIAMI FLEISS

“We didn’t expect her to be as dominant as she was. It’s a big step up from a Friday night maiden to a three-year-old Saturday race (but) you don’t need a crystal ball to say she’s a good chance.”

Race 7: SOCIALISING

“I like this race for her. She’s been up in distance in Victoria before and hasn’t won. Now is the right time to step her to that 1350m. She’s going super and I really like her at Doomben. The race sets up beautifully for her.”

Race 9, ALL IMPORTANT, GARIBALDI

“If (Garibaldi) can do what we think he can, we can cool our jets and look at what our options are in a couple of months’ time. It’s an important race for him. For me he looks a brilliant chance. He’s the best of the two and he’s my best of the day. (All Important) trialled good (but) does take a run. This is a very good race, I think you want that hard fit horse that gets the right run and I’m not sure it’s him.”