Doomben races: Nathan Exelby’s tips and analysis

Racing editor Nathan Exelby and the bookmaking team from Ladbrokes pinpoint the horses to back and ones to avoid at Doomben. Plus, Peter Moody’s take on the Australian Guineas at Flemington.

• Weekend best bets: Sweet smell of success

• Rothfire still a steal after costly error

The Courier-Mail racing editor Nathan Exelby looks the winners at Doomben, with help from the Ladbrokes bookmaking team.

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NATHAN’S SUMMARY

BEST BETS

Mongolian Wolf (Race 2) $2.70

Redoute’s Image (Race 4) $4.20

VALUE

Baby Boomer (Race 6) $8

Stellar Power (Race 7) $14

Tokoriki Lad (Race 9) $13

MULTIS

Race 8, Quinella, Impasse the banker, from Spectroscope, Silvera and Turnberry

RANDWICK

Flit (Race 6) $3.40

Pohutukawa (Race 5) $6

LADBROKES SUMMARY

BEST BACKED

Jagged Edge (Race 5) $5.50-$4.60

Spirit One (Race 4) $4.50-$3.90

Prioritise (Race 8) $16-$12

Golden Lily (Race 1) $26-$19

BEST BET

Manaya (Race 5) $7.50

LAY OF THE DAY

Mongolian Wolf (Race 2) $2.70

RANDWICK

Homesman (Race 7) $16-$13

Costello (Race 8) $7-$4.50

FLEMINGTON

Catalyst (Race 7) $2.60-$2.50

Mongolian Wolf could get punters off to a good start in race two at Doomben. Picture: AAP

DOOMBEN

Track: Soft (5). Weather: Mostly sunny, 30C.

RACE 4 (2.23pm): JEWEL PRELUDE 2YOF (1110m)

NATHAN SAYS: Spirit One is a big query runner, having raced well at both starts in the spring. Drawn to be in the right spot, but should get pressure from the likes of Hancora Field crossing. Fellow Toowoomba filly Kisukano dominated on debut and was then best of the rest behind Rothfire, despite getting few favours in the run. Redoute’s Image was backed to beat Rothfire and travelled sweetly, but didn’t let down in the straight. Giving her another chance on a different surface here, where Andrew Mallyon should be able to give her the perfect run.

LADBROKES SAY: Battle of the Toowoomba 2yos here. Spirit One has been $4.50 into $3.90 and now favourite. She gets all the favours off the inside gate. Kisukano has been $4.60 into $4.20. No money for Redoute’s Image. It’s the interesting one after they backed it to beat Rothfire. Hembrow might be a knockout. Was well backed at the Coast and looked like 900m didn’t suit it. They’ve come straight to town, Brad Stewart booked and thought it might be a knockout at $21.

THE PLAY: REDOUTE’S IMAGE shouldn’t miss the place here, so $4.20/$1.75 looks fair enough.

RACE 5 (3.02pm): OPEN HCP (1200m)

NATHAN SAYS: The scarcthing of I’m A Rippa has thrown the race wide open. Freddie Fox Trot will enjoy the sweet trail and the Les Kelly stable is enjoying a hot streak at the moment. Other hopes are Invincible Al, Grey Missile, Manaya and Macewen, but think Freddie can win this.

LADBROKES SAY: Not a lot of money around at all. Tricky to line up with a few coming out of the Mishani El Lobo race. Manaya ($7.50) was never put into that race at any point and expect a sharp improvement.

THE PLAY: FREDDIE FOX TROT.

RACE 6 (3.42pm): JEWEL PRELUDE 3YO PLATE (1200m)

NATHAN SAYS: The Odyssey won on this day last year after a little break coming off the Magic Millions. He didn’t win over the summer carnival, but ran well without luck against older horses. Back to his own age at set weights, he should give this lot something to catch and $3.90 looks fair enough. The one that might get the cosy run behind and have plenty to offer is Baby Boomer. Weights aren’t in his favour, but can see good speed up front and him being in the right spot. The $8 looks fair enough. Exondabeach is untapped and might keep stepping up the ladder, but can’t afford to do as much wrong this time. Jagged Edge gets a 2,5kg weight swing on her, which further underlines how well The Odyssey is placed, given he meets Jagged 4.5kg better for beating him in October.

LADBROKES SAY: Jagged Edge is $5.50 into $4.60. Exondabeach $3.40 into $3.30. Baby Boomer has loomed up its last couple. Looked like it was going to go past both times, so we are thinking third up this looks possibly the right race.

THE PLAY: Odds allow both THE ODYSSEY and BABY BOOMER to be backed for good results.

The Odyssey drops back to his own age and will be hard to beat. Picture: AAP

RACE 7 (4.22pm): BENCHMARK 75 (1110m)

NATHAN SAYS: Scratchings will be all important here, with a number of good chances on paper drawn out, most notably Desert Man. His winning ratings from two and three starts back put this field to the sword, but whether he can cross and still run anything like those numbers is a query. Giving Stellar Power a chance at good odds. Brian Dais has opted to back him up here after the first-up run and he’s raced well seven days apart previously. Had form around Tambo’s Mate, Just Orm and Boom Chicka Boom last prep, so is clearly good enough. Solar Star is the last horse to beat Emerald Kingdom, which puts her in with a good chance here. Wandabaa is another logical hope.

LADBROKES SAY: Stellar Power has had good specking, being $17 into $14. Wandabaa has been $4.60 into $4.40. This will be a race where we are happy for punters to do their best. It looks a lottery. Tango Rain based on old Sydney form and now with Daryl Hansen, might be worth a spec.

THE PLAY: STELLAR POWER to race well on the back-up.

RACE 8 (5.02pm): TATTERSALL’S MEMBERS CUP (1600m)

NATHAN SAYS: Can make a case for most of them. Impasse is going great guns at the moment and his jockey Robbie Fradd noted immediately after dismounting last time that he’s probably looking for this trip now. Not much between Spectroscope, Silvera and New Universe. Silvera gave away too much start last time and the rain on Thursday will help his chances. Spectroscope does look a big price given his close up second last time. New Universe has to cope with a weight turnaround here and leaning towards the other pair as better chances here. Turnberry is up in grade, but gets the big weight drop to compensate. The chances don’t end there either.

LADBROKES SAY: Good money for the horse on the quick back up Prioritise, $16 into $12 after winning at Toowoomba on Wednesday. As soon as it won, we started taking money for him. We give him a good chance. Impasse has been solid at $4 and there’s not a lot of money around yet for any of the others.

THE PLAY: Making IMPASSE the banker in a quinella with SPECTROSCOPE, SILVERA and TURNBERRY.

Impasse is racing in great form and should appreciate the step up to 1600m. Picture: AAP

RACE 9 (5.40pm): CLASS 6 HCP (1350m)

NATHAN SAYS: Tony Gollan suggested Natch would be up jousting for the lead here with Trommelshalgen and Sister Patti. Hopefully that injects a bit of speed into it. Tokoriki Lad ran well last time behind Impasse, who has since run well in Open grade. He’s well graded here, but just needs things to pan out for him, because he will settle closer to last than first. Red Chase looks the one that will get the right run. He can be closer here after taking off early last time. Femme Fireball might not have been letting down at Eagle Farm. She’s good around this track and expect big improvement here. Forgiving Mr Bellagio for the latest run and giving him a chance at monster odds. Auerbach looks another likely improver.

LADBROKES SAY: Red Chase has been $4 into $3.80 and Femme Fireball $6.50 into $6. Not a lot of money here at the moment, but as often happens with these races late in the day, punters like to see how the track plays before diving in. Sticking to the Emerald Kingdom formlines and giving Natch and Tailevent chances at good odds.

THE PLAY: The $13 about TOKORIKI LAD seems to be a little over the odds.

FROM THE HORSE’S MOUTH

“He can come back from a break looking pretty big, but this time he has only had a short break and he is the fittest he has probably been for a first up race. He has drawn well and this looks a nice race to start off.” Kelly Schweida, THE ODYSSEY, Race 6.

“New Universe is probably best around 1600m and a bit of rain doesn’t hurt him either,” Brett Killion (for Chris Waller), NEW UNIVERSE, Race 8.

“The blinkers at this stage of his career should switch him on.” Stuart Kendrick, ERIC THE EEL, Race 1.

“I’m putting visors on him this time and taking the blinkers off. When he got to the front last time, he ran in which cost him the race.” Natalie McCall, SPECTROSCOPE, Race 8.

“Each of the three have their pros and cons. This is a very open race.” Tony Gollan, I’M A RIPPA, INVINCIBLE AL, MACEWEN, Race 5.

“If he can land in the third pair and stay in touch, he really gives himself a chance. He’s not in well at the set weights (but) he maps really well if he can hold that position. He’s peaking in his prep. He looks amazing the horse.” Tony Gollan, BABY BOOMER, Race 6.

“You would think Doomben is going to suit her. She’s well in after the claim. She’s very fit, I think she’s a really good hope.” Tony Gollan, SOLAR STAR, Race 7.

“Silvera is my best winning chance. Baylee’s due for a bit of luck on the horse. He just needs a bit more luck in running.” Tony Gollan, SILVERA, Race 8.

Chenier will relish the step up to 1600m in the Australian Guineas. Picture: AAP

MOODY VIEWS

Peter Moody runs his eye over the Group 1 Australian Guineas at Flemington.

TACTICS

This shapes as an interesting tactical affair. Alligator Blood is the speed horse and there is no doubt Ryan Maloney will intend to lead. What Damian Lane elects to do on Catalyst will be fascinating. James McDonald was happy to sit outside Alligator Blood in the C.S. Hayes Stakes, and Lane will have the option to do the same. Damien Oliver should be able to settle Chenier just behind the leading pair and he may get the run of the race. I expect Dalasan, Soul Patch and Superstorm to settle in the second half of the field.

I LIKE

I thought the best run in the C.S. Hayes Stakes was third-placed Chenier and I am surprised he isn’t shorter than his current quote of $6.50. Chenier looked like a star in the making to win on debut at Ladbrokes Park and he missed the spring due to injury. The Hayes Stakes was his first race in almost a year and he impressed in getting close to Alligator Blood and Catalyst, running a faster closing 200m than both those horses. He will relish the step up to 1600m. He will stalk the leading duo early and I fancy him to finish over the top of his rivals.

I DON’T LIKE

I think seven of the eight horses are genuine winning chances. Commodus is the horse I would be shocked to see win this race or even beat another galloper home. He is yet to record a maiden race win and he goes into the Australian Guineas on the back of a defeat in a maiden at Geelong.

SUMMARY

Chenier is the value selection in an excellent edition of the Australian Guineas. This will be just his fourth start but he has enormous upside. You can’t take anything away from Alligator Blood. He has proven to be a tough horse to get past and his record is almost flawless. Catalyst should improve off his Australian debut, but I do think he is a little short at his current price ($2.50). Alabama Express beat the older horses last start and there is no reason he cannot be in the mix.

TIP: CHENIER @ $6.50

DANGER: ALLIGATOR BLOOD @ $3.20