Super Rugby Pacific 2022: Key players, predictions, odds as new era kicks off
A new era in rugby kicks off on Friday when Super Rugby Pacific is born and Fiji and Moana Pasifika join the competition. Every team profiled, odds and finishing predictions.
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A new era in rugby begins tonight when Super Rugby Pacific is born as Australia and New Zealand expand their horizons to include teams from Fiji and the wider Pacific in the competition.
The introduction of Moana Pasifika will have to wait after a Covid outbreak in camp forced the postponement of their match against the Blues but the Fijian Drua kick off the season against the Waratahs.
We look at each of the teams, their key players and predict how they will fare this year.
Queensland Reds
Coach: Brad Thorn
Captains: Liam Wright, Tate McDermott
2021 finish - Super Ruby AU: Premiers
Super Rugby Trans-Tasman: 7th
Super Rugby Pacific 2022 odds: $15 (TAB)
Ins: Spencer Jeans (Bond University), George Blake (Bond), Lopetio Faifua (Wests), Tom Lynagh (England)
Outs: Brandon Paenga-Amosa (France), Bryce Hegarty (England), Moses Sorovi (Rebels)
Prediction: The Reds can no longer be considered a young team full of potential — they have a talented team that will measure their success this season on whether they are competitive against the Kiwi big guns and in the hunt for silverware.
The Reds’ pack has been highly touted for years but after Harry Wilson and Fraser McReight were left out of Dave Rennie’s Spring Tour squad to concentrate on their Super Rugby preparations and Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, Liam Wright and Angus Scott-Young overlooked, there are plenty of forwards with a point to prove.
In the backs, Wallabies James O’Connor and Tate McDermott will be out to reinforce a halves combination they hope will be seen in gold at next year’s World Cup and both will celebrate milestones against the Rebels on Saturday, with McDermott making his captaincy debut and O’Connor racking up his 100th Super Rugby cap.
Long touted the wonder kid of Australian rugby, Jordan Petaia will be keen to have an injury-free season and if Thorn hands him the no.15 jersey, as expected, he could finally find his wings.
ACT Brumbies
Coach: Dan McKellar
Captain: Allan Alaalatoa
2021 finish - Super Rugby AU: 2nd
Super Rugby Trans-Tasman: 6th
Super Rugby Pacific 2022 odds: $17
Ins: Jesse Mogg (France), Rod Iona (England), Sefo Kautai (New Zealand NPC), Chris Feauai-Sautia (France), Ed Kennedy (Wales, Pro 14), Ollie Sapsford (New Zealand NPC), Hudson Creighton (Reds), Cam Clark (US Major League Rugby)
Outs: Tom Cusack, Will Miller (retired), Mack Hansen (Ireland), Reesjan Pasitoa, Bayley Kuenzle, Issak Fines, Reece Tapine, Harry Lloyd (Force), Solomone Kata, Henry Stowers (Moana Pasifika), James Tucker (Blues), Archer Holz (Waratahs).
Prediction: More turnover than the Reds but the Brumbies remain in the top echelon of Australian teams and like Queensland will be gunning for the title, especially in McKellar’s final year with the club before he joins the Wallabies set-up full-time.
In Nic White and Noah Lolesio, the Brumbies have an outstanding halves combination and Lolesio will be out to show Wallabies coach Dave Rennie’s decision to leave him out of the Spring Tour squad to concentrate on his Super Rugby preparation was a decision that has borne fruit.
Rob Valetini had a breakout year last season - both for the Brumbies and Wallabies - and is a member of a fearsome pack that is littered with Wallabies and will lay the platform for outside backs who have benefited from another year together, many at the highest level.
Western Force
Coach: Tim Sampson
Captain: Feleti Kaitu’u
2021 finish - Super Rugby AU: 3rd
Super Rugby Trans-Tasman: 8th
Super Rugby Pacific 2022 odds: $51
Ins: Izack Rodda (France), Reesjan Pasitoa, Bayley Kuenzle, Issak Fines, Harry Lloyd, Reece Tapine (Brumbies), Manasa Mataele (Crusaders), Daniel Ala (Shute Shield)
Outs: Tevita Kuridrani, Tomas Cubelli (France), Jono Lance (Japan), Domingo Miotti (Scotland), Tomas Lezana (Wales), Jordan Olowofela (England), Marcel Brache (US Major League Rugby), Henry Taefu (Moana Pasifika), Rob Kearney (retired), Jonah Placid, Victor Harris, Chris Heiberg (WA club rugby)
Prediction: Made the finals for the first time last year in a breakout season and have recruited well, luring schoolboy star Reesjan Pasitoa across the Nullabor from the Brumbies, along with Junior Wallabies playmaker Bayley Kuenzle.
Wallabies lock and former Reds forward Izack Rodda makes his Force debut against the Brumbies on Sunday after returning from a stint in France in a pack that contains recent Wallabies debutant and new Force captain Feleti Kaitu’u and will take it to the highly-touted Brumbies forwards.
Melbourne Rebels
Coach: Kevin Foote
Captain: Michael Wells
2021 finish - Super Rugby AU: 4th
Super Rugby Trans-Tasman: 9th
Super Rugby Pacific 2022 odds: $67
Ins: Matt Philip (France), Joe Pincus (Sevens), Efi Ma’afu (Japan), Sef Fa’agase (Otago), Ray Nu’u (Otago), Moses Sorovi, Sam Wallis (Reds)
Outs: Dane Haylett-Petty, Tom Pincus (retired), Marika Koroibete, Isi Naisarani, Albert Anae (Japan), Lucio Sordoni, Ignacio Calas, Steve Cummins (France), Frank Lomani, Theo Strang (England), Ed Craig, Michael Icely (Shute Shield)
Prediction: The Rebels have lost some big names, with Wallabies Marika Koroibete and Isi Naisarani heading to Japan and Dane Haylett-Petty retiring. But the return of capped Wallaby Matt Philip (France) and addition of outside back Joe Pincus from the Sevens program is a boon for Melbourne as they look to rebuild under coach Kevin Foote.
Queensland junior product Carter Gordon has plenty of weight on his shoulders with the job of steering the team around the field at flyhalf, with Wallabies back Matt To’omua likely to be doing plenty of play-making at inside centre.
Reece Hodge is back in business after a pectoral injury that kept him out of the European tour and will be a steadying force at the back in a team that will struggle against the Kiwi big guns.
NSW Waratahs
Coach: Darren Coleman
Captain: Jake Gordon
2021 finish - Super Rugby AU: 5th
Super Rugby Trans-Tasman: 10th
Super Rugby Pacific 2022 odds: $51
Ins: Michael Hooper, Ned Hanigan, Jed Holloway (Japan), Dylan Pietsch (Sevens), Ruan Smith (US MLR), Jamie Roberts (Wales), Archer Holz (Brumbies), Hamdan Tuipulotu, Geoff Cridge (New Zealand NPC), Hugh Bokenham, Langi Gleeson, Mosese Tuipulotu Tevita Funa (Shute Shield)
Outs: Jack Maddocks, Jack Whetton, Chris Talakai (France), Jack Dempsey (Scotland), Tepai Moeroa (Melbourne Storm NRL), Sam Caird (Highlanders), Joe Cotton (England), Andrew Tuala (US MLR), Pek Cowan (New Zealand NPC), Darcy Breen, Vunipola Fifita, George Francis, Alefosio Tatola, Michael Wood (Shute Shield)
Prediction: The return of Wallabies captain Michael Hooper from his sabbatical in Japan cannot come soon enough for the Tahs, who have struggled over the past two years as they blood a young group that will eventually help them rise again.
Hooper will miss the opening weeks of the competition on contractually agreed leave following his Spring Tour with the Wallabies but his return, along with that of fellow Wallabies forward Ned Hanigan will help beef up the Waratahs pack.
Ben Donaldson will get the first crack at the No.10 jersey with fellow Junior Wallabies flyhalf Will Harrison injured, playing alongside Jake Gordon, who will maintain captaincy duties despite Hooper’s return.
Sevens star Dylan Pietsch makes his debut on the wing against what is likely to be a Fijian Drua team full of speed tonight, while Wales legend Jamie Roberts will make his Super Rugby debut off the bench.
Blues
Coach: Leon MacDonald
Captain: Dalton Papali’i
2021 finish - Super Rugby Aotearoa: 3rd
Super Rugby Trans-Tasman: Premiers
Super Rugby Pacific 2022 odds: $4
Ins: Beauden Barrett (Japan), Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (NRL), Caleb Clarke (Sevens)
Outs: Patrick Tuipulotu (Japan)
Prediction: After their Super Rugby Trans-Tasman win last season, plenty are tipping the start of another Blues dynasty in the Super Rugby Pacific competition, especially with the addition of Beauden Barrett, back from his sabbatical in Japan. The injection of former NRL star Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, adds another layer of interest in the Blues, with the former Roosters and Warriors fullback set to play in the centres when the Blues start their campaign next week after their opening fixture was postponed.
Highlanders
Coach: Tony Brown
Captain: Aaron Smith
2021 finish - Super Rugby Aotearoa: 4th
Super Rugby Trans-Tasman: 2nd
Super Rugby Pacific 2022 odds: $10
Ins: Thomas Umaga-Jensen (injury), Fetuli Paea (Tonga Sevens)
Outs: Ash Dixon (Japan)
Prediction: While the made the Trans-Tasman final last year, eventually falling to the Blues, the Highlanders’ fourth-place finish in Super Rugby Aotearoa is a more accurate portrayal of how they will likely fare this season.
With only three All Blacks in their squad, the Highlanders are not rated in the same class as the Blues and Crusaders but when one of those is superstar Aaron Smith, anything is possible and with several players returning from injury, including former Wallabies hooker Jermaine Ainsley, the team will be no easybeats.
Crusaders
Coach: Scott Robertson
Captain: Scott Barrett
2021 finish - Super Rugby Aotearoa: Premiers
Super Rugby Trans-Tasman: 3rd
Super Rugby Pacific 2022 odds: $2.50
Ins: Pablo Matera (Argentina)
Outs: N/A
Prediction: Make no mistake, the Crusaders remain the team to beat in Super Rugby despite the Blues’ resurgence. They were unbeaten in the Trans-Tasman competition last year and only missed the final on points differential but finishing outside the top two would have burnt Scott Robertson’s men throughout the off-season.
While Richie Mo’unga will miss the first three weeks of the season on rest after the international season, the Crusaders still boast 10 internationals, including exciting Pumas forward Pablo Matera, who has joined the club after a stint with Stade Francais.
Hurricanes
Coach: Jason Holland
Captain: Ardie Savea
2021 finish - Super Rugby Aotearoa: 5th
Super Rugby Trans-Tasman: 4th
Super Rugby Pacific 2022 odds: $7
Ins: TJ Perenara (Japan), Owen Franks (England)
Outs: Vaea Fifita (England)
Prediction: The return of TJ Perenara from Japan is a boon for the ‘Canes, who are likely to struggle against the top sides this season given their relative lack of depth. But they will have to wait a little longer to get their prodigal son back, with Perenara out injured for the opening weeks of the season.
They still have plenty of depth, with a team that includes All Blacks Ardie and Julian Savea and Jordie Barrett and will trouble many teams. But they have a tough task to open the season against the favoured Crusaders.
Chiefs
Coach: Clayton McMillan
Captain: Brad Weber, Sam Cane
2021 finish - Super Rugby Aotearoa: 2nd
Super Rugby Trans-Tasman: 5th
Super Rugby Pacific 2022 odds: $5.50
Ins: Brodie Retallick (Japan), Josh Ioane (Highlanders)
Outs: Damian McKenzie, Lachlan Boshier (Japan)
Prediction: With Brodie Retallick back from his Japanese sabbatical, the Chiefs’ pack has been bolstered but the loss of All Black Damian McKenzie could hit hard.
The Chiefs performed well to make the Super Rugby Aotearoa final last year but without McKenzie to guide them around the ground, could struggle against the top teams.
Fijian Drua
Coach: Mick Byrne
Captain: Nemani Nagusa
Super Rugby debut
Super Rugby Pacific 2022 odds: $101
Prediction: One of the new kids on the block, the Drua will struggle to match the competition’s best every week but are likely to spring a few surprises throughout the season. Former Australian National Rugby Competition premiers, the Drua boast tough-tackling forwards, outside backs with lightning speed and a flair that is almost certain to lead to some of the most entertaining moments of the season.
Whether they can play 80 minutes at Super Rugby level remains to be seen but they will be no easybeats.
Moana Pasifika
Coach: Aaron Mauger
Captain: Sekope Kepu
Super Rugby debut
Super Rugby Pacific 2022 odds: $151
Prediction: Despite only having their place in the competition confirmed late last year, Moana Pasifika have assembled a squad featuring some high-power names, including former Wallabies Sekope Kepu and Christian Lealiifano, whose presence will be crucial not only in guiding the team this season but developing players for the future.
A Covid outbreak has ruined their pre-season preparations and forced the postponement of what was to be a history-making Super Rugby Pacific opener tonight.
Crystal Ball: the side that can stop Super Rugby juggernaut
Super Rugby will enter the 2022 season with new teams, more opportunities and renewed hope after struggling through Covid, but for several big names this year comes with more pressure than ever before.
News Corp rugby writers Jamie Pandaram, Julian Linden and Emma Greenwood cast their eye over the 2022 season with their fearless predictions of what is to come in the next few months.
JAMIE PANDARAM
Champions: Crusaders.
Can’t go past them with the stacked All Blacks forward pack, Fort Knox-like defensive system, and the ability of coach Scott Robertson to keep his team improving. While the Crusaders missed out on last year’s trans-Tasman title to the Blues on the points table, they’ve proven a different beast when it comes to playoff games over the past five years.
Runners Up: Blues.
With Beauden Barrett expected to return during the season, leading a backline stacked with the likes of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Caleb Clarke and Rieko Ioane, the Aucklanders will have too much potency for most of their rivals. The loss of skipper Patrick Tuipulotu to Japanese rugby this season is a major blow, but they’ll win most games off the back of their All Blacks props and dynamic back row of Akira Ioane, Dalton Papalii and Hoskins Sotutu.
Player of the year: Will Jordan.
The Crusaders winger is a genuine superstar who has proven near unstoppable at Super and Test level in his young career. His line-breaking ability, and habit of being at the right spot at the right time makes him the competition’s most dangerous attacking weapon.
The player most under pressure: James O’Connor.
After starring for Queensland in last year’s Super Rugby AU title win, O’Connor struggled during the Wallabies season after injury allowed Quade Cooper to make his stunning return. Now the onus falls back to O’Connor to dominate for the Reds if he is to establish himself as Australia’s premier five-eighth ahead of the 2023 World Cup.
The coach most under pressure: Darren Coleman.
Coaching the NSW Waratahs is always going to be the most heavily scrutinised job in Australian Super Rugby, and after years of sustained success in the Shute Shield and then the American Major League Rugby, Coleman finally gets his chance at the job he’s coveted for years. The past two seasons have been horrendous for Waratahs fans and Coleman needs quick results to keep the blowtorch at bay.
If I could change one rule in rugby I would ... Allow quick taps from anywhere behind the line of the penalty awarded. There is nothing more frustrating in an already stop-start game than pedantic referees calling players back and insisting a quick tap be taken on the exact five centimetres of grass they blew the whistle. Let the players get on with attacking rugby.
The biggest talking point of 2022 will be: Whether Australian teams can close the distance on Kiwi rivals. The greatest factor in diminishing interest in Australian rugby over the past two decades is the inability to compete with our trans-Tasman rivals, save for the 2011 Reds and 2014 Waratahs. The consistent Bledisloe Cup hidings has raised a generation of rugby fans to expect only failure. The recent record against Kiwi Super Rugby teams haven’t been acceptable, but the Brumbies and Reds are showing signs of improvement. That needs to translate into strong results in 2022, to lift hopes with a World Cup on the horizon.
JULIAN LINDEN
Champions: Blues
Last season’s win in the shortened competition was no fluke. The Blues have been steadily closing the gap on the Crusaders for the past couple of seasons and are now poised to take over as the top dogs. With Roger Tuivasa-Sheck joining an already potent backline, they’ll score plenty of tries so if their defence holds up, they’ll be hard to top.
Runners Up: Crusaders
They may not be quite as dominant as in past seasons but the Crusaders are still the benchmark that everyone else is trying to reach. With a side packed with stars and guided by the best coach in the game in Scott Robertson the Crusaders could easily win it again because the one thing you know for sure is they won’t beat themselves.
Player of the year: Richie Mo’unga.
Has been unrivalled as the best player in the competition for years and is only getting better with age – not that he’s over the hill yet. He hasn;t been quite as dominant in the No. 10 jersey for the All Blacks but when he’s calling the shots at the Crusaders, there’s no one better.
The player most under pressure: Jordan Petaia.
Tipped as the next big thing in Australian rugby after he made a stunning start to his professional career as a teenager, the hot and cold Queenslander has struggled with form and injuries in the past seasons. At his best, he’s a sight to behold but those performances have been too few and far between so he needs a big season to establish himself as one of Australia’s top outside backs.
The coach most under pressure: Brad Thorn.
Despite leading Queensland to the title in last season’s Super Rugby AU, the jury is still out on whether Thorn is the right man to lead the Reds. He’s got plenty of talent at his disposal but little to show it including a seventh place finish in last year’s trans-Tasman competition.
If I could change one rule in rugby I would ... There are already far too many stoppages in rugby these days and video referees are often to blame because of their obsession with spotting tiny little accidental fouls that lead to games being stopped and players being sent off. Everyone understands why player safety is paramount but the game should not be halted to look at every single incident multiple times when there is no obvious injury or deliberate foul.
The biggest talking point of 2022 will be: The biggest decision Rugby Australia has to make in 2022 is whether to retain, scrap or change the Giteau law because the current Wallabies are a shambles. That’s largely due to the fact most of the best players are based overseas because RA is broke so the dilemma facing the game’s administrators is monumental. They either have to start selecting all players who go overseas – and risk ruining Super Rugby forever – or sacrifice the Wallabies’ brand to keep the domestic game strong.
EMMA GREENWOOD
Champions: Crusaders
Yes, they’re without Richie Mo’unga for the first three rounds of the season while he’s rested after international duties but their depth, litany of stars and the nous of coach Scott Robertson is likely to keep them ahead of the pack.
Will get a good run for their money from the Blues, who will be bolstered by their Super Rugby trans-Tasman win last year and are desperate to ensure the title win was not just a one-off.
Runners Up: Reds
I’m out on a limb here and I can feel it breaking – but why not Queensland in the grand final? Last year’s Super Rugby AU win showed just how far the team has come and with little turnover – they’ve kept 31 of the 35 players that drove them to the title – they will be looking to continue the momentum of the past few seasons. While they managed just one win against the Kiwi sides in the Trans Tasman competition last year, another year and more international exposure for the likes of Harry Wilson, Tate McDermott and Hunter Paisami, a fit-again Jordan Petaia and the experience of James O’Connor means they are every chance of making a run deep into the finals.
Player of the year: Beauden Barrett (Blues)
Barrett will turn 32 during the season but as James O’Connor showed last year, there’s plenty of life on the rugby field after 30. A season’s sabbatical in Japan will have refreshed the 100-Test All Black and with one of the classiest backlines in the competition outside him, Barrett is relieved of the pressure of having to be “the man”.
The Blues’ Super Rugby trans-Tasman title has the club looking to reclaim its place as a Super Rugby force and Barrett will be a major piece of the puzzle if they are to push for a title.
The player most under pressure: Christian Lealiifano (Moana Pasifika)
There are plenty of Wallabies and All Blacks who will be attempting to hold positions, those on the fringes trying to push into squads and flying Fijians ready to show they deserve a place on the big stage.
But few teams are under pressure like Moana Pasifika given their late entry into the competition and as the man steering the ship at no.10, Lealiifano will heave to bear that pressure week-in, week-out. He’s definitely at the tail-end of his career but if Lealiifano can make those youngster around him better players over the next four months, he will have done his job.
The coach most under pressure: Kevin Foote (Rebels)
Took over the top job on an interim basis last year after Dave Wessels stepped down and while he’s been appointed for two years, another poor season from the Rebels could have bosses questioning whether he’s the man for the job. It’s unlikely he would be unceremoniously dumped though, with general manager of rugby and former Reds mentor Nick Stiles – appointed to the newly created position last year – understanding all too well the pressure that can be applied to a Super Rugby coach when a team is not firing.
If I could change one law in rugby I would …
It’s not exactly a law change but cutting out time-wasting around scrums is essential if rugby is to have a place as a genuine entertainment product, both live and on television in a winter market including NRL and AFL fixtures.
Way too much time is wasted setting and endlessly resetting scrums, to the point that the ball is actually in play for frustratingly short periods of time. Safety has to be paramount but the onus needs to be on officials to get it right the first time and get on with the game.
The biggest talking point of 2022 will be:
Whether including the Fijian Drua and Moana Pasifika has been a success and is the way forward for Super Rugby. Certainly, something needs to be done to support the game in the Pacific but the strength of Moana Pasifika, in particular, after their late inclusion in the competition, is a worry and lopsided results are a bad look for a league that has prided itself on being the strongest provincial rugby competition in the world.
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Originally published as Super Rugby Pacific 2022: Key players, predictions, odds as new era kicks off
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