Super Rugby 2016 preview: ultimate guide to every team in Australian conference
WITH the revamped Super Rugby competition ready to launch, Iain Payten and Jamie Pandaram dissect the chances of every team in the Australian conference.
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THE 21st Super Rugby season kicks off next weekend and the 2016 version features the biggest changes in the competition’s history.
It has been extended from 15 to 18 teams, now incorporating Argentina’s Jaguares, Japan’s Sunwolves, and South Africa’s additional team the southern Kings.
Also, we now have four conferences instead of three. That means the format of the past few years, which has seen local derbies played twice, has been scrapped.
The South Africans have been split into two conferences, with the Jaguares in one and Sunwolves in the other.
They will play each other more often, while Australian teams will confront Kiwi opposition more frequently.
The finals will be an eight-team format like the NRL uses, with the winners of each conference guaranteed a top four spot and ranked by overall points and, if need be, points differential and tries scored.
The bottom four of the top eight will be made up by three of the remaining best performing Australasian sides, and the next best performing side from either African conference. So it is possible for Australia or New Zealand to have four of their five teams in the finals.
Our rugby reporters JAMIE PANDARAM and IAIN PAYTEN tell you what to expect from the Aussie teams this year.
PANDA SAYS:
Stephen Larkham’s Brumbies have been close enough in the past two years and have kept enough of their best players to be the big players in Australia, and should win the conference.
Winning the premiership will still be difficult given the potency of the Highlanders and Hurricanes, and format advantage of the Stormers. The Waratahs should also make the finals but I don’t see them making the decider due to a lack of depth in the forwards and midfield.
Melbourne will be mid-table, while Queensland and the Force will struggle like they did last year.
PAYTO SAYS:
It is the Chinese year of the Monkey but as far as Super Rugby goes, this is the Australian year of the Brumby. The Canberrans have a settled roster, a squad brimming with Wallabies and a promising newcomer called Pocock.
After many years of coming close, the Brumbies can use the uncertainty of a new Super Rugby schedule to clinically get the job done in 2016.
It may prove tough given the soft African conference draws, but winning the Super Rugby minor premiership will be critical. Bonus points aplenty will be needed.
Elsewhere, the Waratahs will struggle with depth but still push into the finals again, and Rebels will finally emerge and squeak into their first playoffs.
NSW WARATAHS
Coach: Daryl Gibson
Captain: Michael Hooper
Major Ins: Angus Ta’avao, Matt Lucas, Bryce Hegarty, Zac Guilford, Reece Robinson
Major Outs: Sekope Kepu, Mitch Chapman, Tala Gray, Pat McCutcheon, Jacques Potgieter, Stephen Hoiles, Brendan McKibbin, Jono Lance, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Peter Betham, Taqele Naiyaravoro, Ben Volavola.
Key forward: Wycliff Palu. A scrapped Japanese deal sees one last go around for Palu in blue. The 33-year-old is one of the most respected big back rowers in Australian rugby. Palu’s abrasive power is highly valuable but his experience is almost priceless in a squad that has saw a big group of greybeard backrowers depart at the end of last year.
Key back: Kurtley Beale. The mercurial playmaker is only getting better and you get the sense Beale will begin to dominate at Super Rugby level this season. His impact at the World Cup was huge and the Foley-Folau-Beale triple threat is one that most teams would love to have.
X-Factor: Zac Guilford. The former All Black has had serious problems with off-field issues but they almost cloud people’s memories to the fact Guilford can seriously play too. The speedy winger is in a good mindset under Daryl Gibson and providing he stays that way, watch him fly.
Strengths: The Waratahs used to be a forward based team that thought a crash ball at 12 was expansive. Their threats are now far wider and attacking rugby will again be a major strength if the Tahs pack can provide the platform. Daryl Gibson will apply more pragmatism than Michael Cheika, however, so watch for the Tahs to develop some aspects of Crusader-ball. They’ll adjust the tempo of their game (up and down) when it is called for.
Weakness: Depth. The Waratahs still have an all-star run-on XV but a few injuries in key positions and you’ll start to see some fresh-faced kids called upon to do the heavy lifting. Experience is vital for success in Super Rugby, so Gibson will be keeping fingers and toes crossed that big names don’t go down.
Prediction: Semi-finals have to be the goal, at least, for the Waratahs. They are a side dealing with a fair degree of transition but are still equipped with a horde of Wallabies. Expectations remain high.
ACT BRUMBIES
Coach: Stephen Larkham
Captain: Stephen Moore/Christian Lealiifano
Major Ins: Tomas Cubelli, Andrew Smith, Albert Anae, Aidan Toua
Major Outs: Nic White, Jesse Mogg, Sean Doyle, JP Smith
Key forward: David Pocock. Dare we pick anyone else? Pocock proved his superhuman qualities last year when after two years out with consecutive knee reconstructions, he returned and promptly won Brumbies player of the Year. He was also a freak at the World Cup, playing out of position. The impressive thing is Pocock’s game is evolving: defence remains a strength but ball-running is superb, and so is his short passing and rolling maul awareness.
Key back: Christian Lealiifano. This is a really big year for the Brumbies playmaker, who’ll finally settle at no. 10. Lealiifano finished strongly last season after a quiet start and his goal kicking was hit-and-miss, where it used to be hit-and-hit. Considered a great strategic thinker, Lealiifano will be asked to guide the Brumbies to the promised land in 2016 (and beyond, given Matt Toomua is leaving next year). A good year can easily see Lealiifano back in gold this year, with playmaker depth a worry at the Wallabies.
X-Factor: Tomas Cubelli. The Argentinian Test halfback is one of only a handful of new players at the Brumbies and the talk from the pre-season is that Cubelli will add plenty to the Brumbies. The speedy no. 9 loves to run from the ruck.
Strengths: The Brumbies are one of the most settled sides in Super Rugby, after only losing Nic White and Jesse Mogg. That gives them a headstart on most rivals, who’ve spent the summer rebuilding. The Brumbies backrow is particularly strong: Pocock, Scott Fardy and Ita Vaea.
Weakness: They only lost two starters but Jesse Mogg’s long boot will be missed. Time and again the Brumbies were able to exit their half — by some distance — courtesy of the big left hoof of their custodian, and build pressure quickly. Robbie Coleman doesn’t have nearly the same skill with the boot.
Prediction: Premiership or bust for the Brumbies. The ACT side’s premiership window will likely swing shut after this season, when Stephen Moore, Matt Toomua and probably David Pocock move on. Ruthlessness is the key.
MELBOURNE REBELS
Coach: Tony McGahan
Captain: Nic Stirzaker
Major Ins: Adam Thomson, James Hanson, Jamie Hagan
Major Outs: Scott Higginbotham, Bryce Hegarty, Luke Burgess
Key forward: Sean McMahon. The flanker is already entrenching himself in the Wallabies setup and, at just 21, has plenty of upside left in his game.
Key back: Mike Harris. The Rebels were in most games up to their ears last year but lost a few close ones. It means the goalkicking of their fullback needs to be on point.
X-Factor: Nic Stirzaker. Plenty of buzz around the young scrum-half as he looks to push for national team honours. A star of the future.
Strengths: The Rebels definitely won’t be left wanting in their forward pack with lousies McMahon, Thomson — a former All Black — Scott Fuglistaller and rising stars Colby Fainga’a and Jordy Reid. In hooker Hanson and lock Luke Jones, the Rebels have international experience in their scrum.
Weakness: With Stirzaker and Jack Debreczeni, the Rebels have talent in the halves but it is out wide where the club may be found wanting in 2016. There will be plenty of pressure to perform on Dom Shipperley, Tom English and Fijian Sefanaia Naivalu,
Prediction: A successful season for the Rebels in 2016 would be to make the finals for the first time. With new owners on board the club has off-field stability and with a low off-season turnover of players the Rebels also have stability on the pitch. Now the team needs to climb towards the pointy end of the ladder to start to gain a foothold in the cutthroat Melbourne market.
QUEENSLAND REDS
Coach: Richard Graham
Captain: Rob Simmons until the return of the injured James Slipper
Major Ins: Ayumu Goromaru, Eto Nabuli, Cadeyrn Neville, Henry Taefu, Kane Douglas.
Major Outs: Quade Cooper, Will Genia, James Horwill, Adam Thomson, James O’Connor, Lachie Turner, Ben Tapuai, James Hanson.
Key forward: Backrower Hendrik Tui. If the Reds are to fire a shot they need plenty of the turf-shredding, leg-driving, ball-carrying that has been so lacking in recent campaigns. Japanese Test forward Tui fits the bill.
Key Back: Powerhouse centre Samu Kerevi was a standout last season even in an often dire attacking setup at the Reds. His big ball-running and line-busting traits will make him a Wallaby this year.
X-Factor: Japanese cult hero Ayumu Goromaru kicks goals at above 80 per cent, has excellent game sense and slick hands. He’s not a speed machine but he has great composure which is much needed.
Strengths: The Reds’ scrum and lineout functioned better than most in the competition last year. It just emphasised how poor the Reds were in connecting the elements of their game because they generated so few tries. Far better team spirit, much improved coaching with Matt O’Connor’s bark as attack boss to add edge beside Graham and Nick Stiles (forwards) and a receptive new era of players are plusses.
Weakness: So much class has disappeared with 100-Game Club trio Cooper, Genia and Horwill now gone. This is a new era. You hate to use the rebuilding word but the Reds lack out and out quality with just one starting Wallaby (Rob Simmons) in their best side. New halves combination Nick Frisby and Jake McIntyre lack big time experience so have a huge amount on their shoulders to steer the side.
Prediction: Expectations have to be muted. The Reds finished 13th last season when winning just four games. Winning six games for 11th would be a good result with far fewer stars although Reds fans will find that hard to swallow. Graham is under the pump from round one. The Reds are starting again. The 2011 title is ancient history. McIntyre has composure and a real steel to him when he tackles so there will be no lack of effort.
WESTERN FORCE
Coach: Michael Foley
Captain: Matt Hodgson
Major Ins: Peter Grant, Ben Tapuai, Jono Lance
Major Outs: Sam Wykes, Sias Ebersohn, Nick Cummins, Zack Holmes, Wilhelm Steenkamp
Key forward: Ben McCalman. The No. 8 virtually carried the Force on his back last year, but 2016 will be a far different proposition for the Wallaby, coming off a season in Japan’s Top League. McCalman will not have had any break since the start of last season and fatigue will be a factor, but without his go-forward the Force won’t win games.
Key Back: Peter Grant. A new season, a new five-eighth, and this time it is South African Grant who will steer the Force around. The Perth outfit has not had a five-eighth of international calibre since Matt Giteau in 2009. Grant needs to conjure some magic.
X-Factor: Kyle Godwin. The powerful, skilful centre has been on the cusp of Wallabies selection for a couple of years now but injuries and the Force’s lack of success have worked against him. He is the one man who can spark their attack.
Strengths: Set-piece and forward play. The Force are always competitive in the tight stuff. They work hard at the breakdown and are rarely dominated at scrum time, although a lack of depth in the second row is a worry.
Weakness: Attack and coaching. The Force scored the least amount of tries last year and finished last because they simply could not manufacture tries. Coach Michael Foley has a poor record and struggles with attack in particular. When he was in charge of NSW their attack was woeful, and that trend has continued in Perth.
Prediction: The Force are not going to make the finals, and in fact they should be happy if they can stay off the bottom of the ladder. With the Sunwolves and Kings entering the fray their task has become easier. Realistically, they can consider 2016 a success if they’re not one of the bottom four teams in the competition.
Originally published as Super Rugby 2016 preview: ultimate guide to every team in Australian conference
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