Rugby World Cup: Stats prove how Eddie Jones got it so wrong from the start in failed Wallabies World Cup campaign

Australia took a squad that had less than half the experience of most quarterfinalists, a failed tactic that left Eddie Jones exposed, writes Brendan Cannon.

Australia's head coach Eddie Jones. Picture: SEBASTIEN BOZON / AFP

THERE’S been a lot of angst around Eddie Jones’ selection policy for the Wallabies’ World Cup campaign, but I wanted to see the numbers for myself.

What I’ve found has astounded me, and completely exposed Jones’ ill-conceived decision to go for youth.

The most experienced teams are in the quarter-finals. Our young men are flying home.

As I’ve said repeatedly, the World Cup is the Olympic Games for rugby players, and some of these Wallabies who’ve exited in the pool stages will never get the chance to go to another one. This experience will remain a painful scar forever.

Fraser McReight, Ben Donaldson, Tom Hooper and Will Skelton after the Wallabies’ loss to Wales. Picture: Jan Kruger/Getty Images

As a former Wallaby myself, I do not question the effort or commitment of the players whatsoever. I believe they gave everything they had.

What does peeve me is the idea that we’re building for the 2027 World Cup.

Because never again will Australia be given such a favourable draw, as they had this year.

Look at the quarter-finals, and you’ll see the top four teams in the world playing each other this weekend; Ireland versus New Zealand, and France versus South Africa.

On the other side are teams Australia should be defeating every week, quite easily, if their selections and preparation were solid.

But the constant chopping and changing of personnel, and Jones’ decision to remove – among others – Michael Hooper and Quade Cooper – from his squad was a disastrous move.

Australia’s squad had a total of 668 Test caps before the tournament. The other quarterfinalists had in excess of 1000, aside from France, who’ve got a younger group of players but who have all been playing together consistently from under-20s level right through the past four years.

In essence, Rugby Australia’s decision to sack Dave Rennie as coach after his first World Cup camp in January this year, which followed three years of planning and building depth, in order to parachute Jones into the role, sabotaged their entire campaign.

Eddie Jones at the announcement of his return as Wallabies coach. Picture: Karen Watson

It was like running a marathon and then changing your entire race strategy with three kilometres remaining; completely seizing your legs and crawling to the finish line as others that had trailed you the whole way ran past.

The squad that Rennie had prior to his sacking would have bolstered the Test cap numbers to nearly 1000 for the combined group. By removing Rennie for Jones, and then Jones removing Hooper, Cooper and co, Rugby Australia severely diluted the probability of World Cup success.

In the key decision-making role at five-eighth, Jones went for 22-year-old Carter Gordon, and when that failed, the 24-year-old Ben Donaldson.

The stats suggest Wallabies five-eighths Carter Gordon and Ben Donaldson won’t be ready for RWC 2027 let alone this year’s tournament. Picture: Chris Hyde/Getty Images

Even if you’re trying to build for 2027, the stats show they won’t be ready then.

Ireland has 38-year-old Jonny Sexton, while Argentina has Nicolas Sanchez (34), Wales Dan Biggar (33), England Owen Farrell (32), Fiji Teti Tela (32), New Zealand Richie Mo’unga (29), and South Africa Handre Pollard (29).

France’s replacement playmaker Matthieu Jalibert is the exception, but has had the benefit of receiving ball from the game’s best halfback, Antoine Dupont, and behind one of the world’s strongest forward packs.

Having been coached by Eddie, I know how passionate he is about his playing group. His work ethic is never to be questioned. He is invested in what he does – I have seen it first hand from my time being coached by him.

But even as experienced a coach as he is, he would not have thought the tinkering with this experience/cohesion dynamic would have resulted in this outcome for the Wallabies.

To win any competition you need experience/cohesion and good fortune. Control the variables and hope the rugby gods are kind on the journey.

The stages of the World Cup – from pool to quarters to semis to final – require all variables to be in alignment.

Rugby Australia, by tinkering with this formula, made this campaign a bigger Everest to climb than it needed to be.

We won’t get time back. But we can certainly learn from the sobering numbers history will give us.

Originally published as Rugby World Cup: Stats prove how Eddie Jones got it so wrong from the start in failed Wallabies World Cup campaign