Waratahs need to be wary of rotating too many players with plenty to play for, says Bob Dwyer

THE chance to secure a crucial minor premiership will ensure the Waratahs don’t take selection risks in the last rounds, says Bob Dwyer.

The Waratahs' Israel Folau left, is tackled by the Brumbies' Scott Fardy center, Christian Lealiifano back, and Nic White during their Super Rugby Match in Sydney, Australia, Saturday, June 28, 2014.(AP Photo/Rob Griffith)

THEY’VE already locked away a finals spot but the chance to secure a crucial minor premiership will ensure the Waratahs don’t take selection risks in the last rounds, believes former NSW coach Bob Dwyer.

Dwyer’s prediction came as the World Cup-winning coach also rated the current NSW side as the strongest ever contender to break the Waratah’s 18-year Super Rugby title drought.

“They’re a better chance than they ever have been, but there’s a lot of hard work to do yet. There’s four games to be won,” Dwyer said.

NSW’s win over the Brumbies, and the Force’s loss, last weekend meant the Waratahs won the Australian conference title with two rounds remaining; locking in a home final regardless of results.

But the Waratahs’ track record with a finals spot already secured is, historically, not flash.

From a total of five finals appearances, NSW have tied up a playoffs spot with a round remaining in three seasons; only to then twice lose the last game and be bundled out of the finals a week later.

Bob Dwyer believes the Waratahs will be more conservative in any squad rotation plans from now on.

In 2006 the Tahs lost to the Hurricanes back-to-back to be eliminated, but the most infamous was the “Horror-Tahs” episode of 2002, when Dwyer’s side lost 96-16 to the Crusaders in the last round, and were punted 51-10 at home by the Brumbies seven days later.

Dwyer was criticised at the time for making seven changes to his starting side for the “dead rubber” clash in Christchurch.

A handful of lightly played reserves started and stars like Brendan Cannon, Duncan McRae and Marc Stcherbina were benched, and flanker Phil Waugh was left out to not risk an ankle injury.

“One of the things we had in mind was ‘can we afford to go into the finals with some of our players not having played any game time for some weeks?’ We decided we couldn’t,” Dwyer explained on Wednesday.

“I thought, and I still think, that our thought process was right. We thought we could put on a reasonable performance. The end result was unsatisfactory, obviously.”

Dwyer said he didn’t sense the 14-try thrashing shell-shocked his players so much they were on toast for the star Brumbies team in the finals, but the ACT players disagreed and Waratahs players have since admitted their confidence was hammered.

Current Tahs coach Michael Cheika indicated this week he may rotate flankers in the last round against the Reds, and indicated he wanted to keep rivals guessing with an “evolving” team.

But Dwyer said the fact the Waratahs still have major things to play for will see them field their strongest side and guard against an ill-timed drop in momentum.

A top-two finish will earn the Tahs a week off and a home game in the semi-finals, and top spot can give them a home grand final if they progress.

“That’s massive, massive motivation. In those circumstances, I am sure you should go in with your best team. They have varied that starting side all year so they have options, which is good, whereas we didn’t have that option really,” Dwyer said.

Dwyer said the Waratahs very well-placed to win the title if they continued to perform consistently.

“When we won the 1991 World Cup, we went in saying “if we play to the best of our ability, we have as good a chance as any. So let’s just focus on playing to the best of our ability”,” he said.

“There’s absolutely no doubt they’re capable of winning. But being capable, and actually winning, are not the same thing. It will depend on whether they stay healthy, be influenced by whether they play at home or away and whether they get as much good luck as bad luck, at least.”