Crusaders to finish over the top of Waratahs in Super Rugby final, Eddie Jones writes

BEWARE the Crusaders. The perfect script is a Waratahs win yet I can see the Kiwis crashing the party in the final stages of the Super Rugby final.

Dan Carter of the Canterbury Crusaders prepares to kick a penalty against the Coastal Sharks during the Super 15 rugby union semi final between the Canterbury Crusaders and the Coastal Sharks at AMI Stadium in Christchurch on July 26, 2014 AFP PHOTO / Fiona GOODALL

BEWARE the Crusaders. The perfect script is a NSW Waratahs win tonight yet I can see the cool Kiwis crashing the party in the final 20 minutes of the Super Rugby final.

Two great semi-finals last weekend have propelled the competition’s two best sides into a decider laden with Wallabies and All Blacks.

To get here the Waratahs showed excellent line speed in defence plus a lot of mongrel to stifle the ACT Brumbies attack.

The ominous sign from the Crusaders was winning their semi over the Sharks in 20 minutes with big guns Kieran Read, Andy Ellis, Dan Carter and Richie McCaw all dynamic.

The first 20 minutes and the last 20 will be huge tonight and I fancy the Crusaders to overpower the Tahs late and win by 14 points. A stronger bench and fitness will be key too.

The big factors?.

HOME GROUND IS AN ASSET

This is a big advantage for the Waratahs even to the point of home support influencing the referee.

The Crusaders do travel well as I painfully recall from 2000 when they came to frigid Canberra on final night and pipped my Brumbies side 20-19.

X-FACTOR

The ex-Waratah Nemani Nadolo has been enormous for the Crusaders. He has been 122kg of muscle with speed and sense and can be a matchwinner.

Israel Folau had a quiet semi but a big game will bring out his best.

PACK MUSCLE

The Tahs pack is on fire. No.8 Wycliff Palu is back to his destructive best while Will Skelton brings even more power off the bench. Michael Hooper is abrasive and super competitive.

The collective grunt of the Crusaders is as big through All Blacks forwards Wyatt Crockett, Owen Franks, Sam Whitelock, Read and McCaw.

McCaw is enjoying his more running role as a No.6 and Read playing in the 15m channel to the sidelines is very dangerous. He is almost Sonny Bill-like with his offloads.

FINALS EXPERIENCE MATTERS

Carter and McCaw live for finals. The Tahs players have never won anything substantial in senior rugby.

COACH’S BOX

Michael Cheika has done a great job with the Tahs, building attack in year one and now adding robust defence with mongrel in year two. He is vital because he has won Cups in Europe.

Todd Blackadder is a good, solid guy who has got his selections right this year. Playing Colin Slade and Carter at 10-12 has given the Crusaders an edge.

WEAKNESSES

The NSW lineout. After doing a great job against Ben Mowen in the semi, Waratahs veteran Stephen Hoiles has a tougher job against the athleticism and height of Read and Whitelock.

The Crusaders are vulnerable at midfield rucks. They leave flankers on the edges so midfield rucks can be skinny in support. Watch Hooper attack these rucks like a jackal round a garbage bin.