Port Adelaide v Geelong AFL Finals 2020: Can Power banish the memory of 2017?
Port Adelaide fans won’t have forgotten their last finals appearance in 2017. They dominated every stat except the scoreboard. Can they draw on that experience to upset Geelong’s ageing champions?
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AFL legend Leigh Matthews described the home and away rounds as the long season, and the finals as a new short season.
Many a team has dominated the long season only to go missing in the short season.
We are forever hearing about teams’ game style that don’t stand up in the month that matters most. So what is it that sets finals apart?
The knockout nature of the majority of finals is the obvious one, but there are some other key differences, including the way the game unfolds during these big matches.
Here’s what the numbers tell us.
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Things that have happened regularly between Round 1 and 17 won’t be as certain over the next month.
One of the big drop off stats is uncontested football. It stands to reason that as the intensity and pressure rises for a final, the time and space of a normal game disappears.
Strangely the contested possessions don’t rise, the game just has less disposals.
What tends to happen is that teams kick more, so even though disposals are down, inside 50m entries stay relatively constant.
Another change, is kicking efficiency decreases during the finals series.
Increased pressure and the reduction in uncontested possession means less time and space to be able to execute the kick precisely.
This is also backed up by the fact that there are less marks taken inside 50m and lower scores.
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The big question now becomes is there a team in 2020 that this helps or hinders, and more immediately, what does it all mean for Port Adelaide and their clash against Geelong?
Geelong are interesting because they are the clear leader in the competition for disposal differential, and marks differential, effectively playing a keepings off style that denies the opposition the ball.
We have seen this work to great effect against the Power in Round 12 when they smashed Port Adelaide by 10 goals.
What I expect to be different this time around is the contest around the footy.
Geelong smashed the Power in contested ball, which enabled them to control the uncontested possessions, and the game. Port Adelaide couldn’t get near it, and the Cats made them pay dearly.
The evidence across the season would suggest that game was an outlier for Port Adelaide.
We have seen them more than match it in these areas against the measuring stick in Richmond and Port Adelaide also finished the year with the No.1 ranked defence, suggesting that area has been pretty sound across the 17 games.
If anything the drop in uncontested numbers and the lower kicking efficiency in finals would suggest it will be more difficult for the Cats to execute their game style than the Power.
Above is an outline of the measurable. What we know works and what has been proven by history to have happened.
Just as important come finals time is the immeasurable or intangible, like how players and teams handle the step up in intensity.
It’s been six long years since Power fans tasted a finals victory, meaning almost two thirds of the team haven’t experienced that feeling.
That creates excitement, nerves and sometimes doubt, every player will be different and respond differently.
Geelong have their own demons when it comes to finals in recent times.
Having qualified for the major round in all but one year since their last premiership in 2011, including six times in the top four, they have not been back to a Grand Final.
With a raft of ageing champions, what pressure are they feeling to make the most of what could be their best and last chance to snare another flag.
Or does that experience work for them, and will the class of Gary Ablett and Tom Hawkins or the determination and grit of Joel Selwood and Patrick Dangerfield lead the way?
Another immeasurable is the pressure surrounding taking your opportunities in front of goal. Port Adelaide fans won’t have forgotten their last finals appearance against West Coast in 2017, when they dominated every stat except the scoreboard.
The Power had 26 scoring shots to the Eagles’ 18 yet still found a way to lose.
It’s a situation that haunts anyone who has been involved in a loss like that.
Strangely enough the top two teams on the ladder, Port Adelaide and Brisbane, sit 16th and 18th for accuracy in 2020.
Ken Hinkley’s men on 53.8 per cent and the Lions just a tick above 50 per cent. Geelong are placed third at an impressive 62 per cent.
Many finals have been decided in this manner and clearly the Cats have an edge here.
In the lead up to this weeks games many players will hear the voice inside their head telling them about the need for an extraordinary performance to win.
My experience says it’s more about the ordinary than the extraordinary.
Which team can produce a performance close to their best?
Who can execute the skills they are capable of when required most?
Including in front of goal. Who’s structure and game style can be replicated as the pressure increase?
It is maybe why Richmond are favoured by many, because we know the answer to most of those questions. Port Adelaide, Geelong, and Brisbane, not so much.
When trying to pick a winner in Finals it’s often the tangibles we give the most credence, but invariably it’s the intangibles that provide us with the result.
For that there is no formula.
Originally published as Port Adelaide v Geelong AFL Finals 2020: Can Power banish the memory of 2017?