With the NRL 2016 seasons days from kick-off, Paul Kent runs the rule over the competition
WITH the NRL season only days from kick-off, Paul Kent runs the rule over the competition and tells us why the Sharks will reign supreme in 2016.
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BEWARE the whispers of summer, they have sent more men broke than slow horses.
So we roll into autumn with what we hope is a clearer eye and the smart folk telling us everyone but Newcastle, Gold Coast and Wests Tigers can win it.
Although some will find it a little harder than others.
A quick look around and it is hard to disagree.
Melbourne’s big three, Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk are fitter than they have been in years, collectively and individually.
Ben Barba is fit and burger free. Johnathan Thurston is satisfied but unquenchable.
The Roosters are smarting. The Sea Eagles resurgent.
Slamming Sammy returns to South Sydney and so the premiership talk also returns.
The Raiders have recruited the best roster nobody has heard of and Parramatta have recruited the best roster everybody has heard of.
So what’s the early tip? The envelope please ...
Brisbane ($5) come into the premiership like the overseas stayers for the Melbourne Cup. A blue-blood pedigree and plenty of reputation.
The money for Brisbane is completely understandable given the improvement from eighth in 2014 to runners-up last year. The easy thought is their improvement will continue and the premiership is the only step left.
James Roberts brings pace. Anthony Milford will get better in his second season starting at five-eighth.
But how much improvement is really in the Broncos?
Given how close they got last season, not much is needed. Against that, though, they won’t ambush this season, either.
North Queensland ($8) can’t win.
It will happen one day but not with this Cowboys outfit.
But you can’t back against history twice. Not in the same season, and no team has won back-to-back titles since the Broncos in 1997-98 or, if you don’t want to count the ’97 Super League season, the Broncos again in 1992-93.
The salary cap is much different now than it was then. The premiership window is not open nearly so long. Back-to-back will happen again but not with this Cowboys outfit that rode home largely on the genius of Thurston, who played like it was all or nothing. And it was.
Having gone close for several seasons, and several times being eliminated for reasons not of their own doing, a hunger was built that was personified by Thurston’s season. But it has been satisfied.
Melbourne ($15) are the same price as Cronulla ($15) and also an unrecognised threat.
The Storm will come in as the season shortens because they do nothing but impress. Few realise but the Storm went through last season with more wins against top-eight sides than any other team despite the big three being less than 100 per cent.
Yet they still finished a game away from the grand final.
Inconsistency cost them. From last year’s top eight, they also lost the most games against bottom- eight sides.
Manly ($8) will improve with a rookie coach, a new halves combination and a massive turnover in the roster.
It might also mean that they are a season or two away from reaching their best.
Any punter who takes $8 about New Zealand will soon be eating their ticket.
Everybody looks at the new signings of Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Issac Luke and forgets half the game is defence. The Warriors would do well to sign more Ryan Hoffman-type players.
If the Eels ($15) have a problem it’s when injuries hit. Brad Arthur has recruited a strong team but the Eels are still rebuilding their depth, although most punters have ignored this. Behind Brisbane, Parramatta are the most backed team in the premiership.
That said, anything less than a top-eight finish will have some checking the contracts in the drawer.
Souths ($15) look to be on a downward slope more than a surge back to the premiership but they are tough and can’t be discounted.
The tip here for the premiership, though, with bold voice, is Cronulla.
Barba will be given first chance at fullback because Shane Flanagan needs to gamble that Barba will recover his form from his Dally M season.
Barba has trained strongly and teammates are talking about his rediscovered zip, so he could make good on his end.
With Barba and James Maloney, points will come easier, and we already know they can defend forever.
The Sharks rookies will only improve, the old hardheads are still young enough to get the job done, and all their talk carries the same kind of frustration North Queensland carried with them until last October.
Only at Brisbane can you hear the same frustration, but Harold Holt has to make his way home soon, right?
Originally published as With the NRL 2016 seasons days from kick-off, Paul Kent runs the rule over the competition
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