SuperCoach Plus Article: Seeing sense in selecting Siosiua for round 15

In this week’s exclusive article for KFC SuperCoach NRL SuperCoach Plus subscribers Rob Sutherland and Wilfred Zee talk the trade you need to make.

In this week’s SuperCoach Plus article, Wilfred Zee and Rob Sutherland cover the bargain front-rower who is ready to roll and the crazy break evens of the best in the game.

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There's 130,000 reasons that Siosiua Taukeiaho makes sense as a 'buy' ahead of round 15

A HUNDRED AND THIRTY THOUSAND REASONS TO BUY TKO

Whether you call him TKO (my preference because it is badass), SST or Siosiua Taukeiaho I’m calling the big Rooster the buy of the round. Which may seem odd seeing as how TKO’s season average of 56PPG (18th for FRF in 2021) and 3RA of 43PPG (45th for FRF) hardly seem desirable. But, as always, there’s devil in the detail.

Over the first five rounds of the season Taukeiaho was averaging 70.6PPG (53BPPG) in 58MPG. Those are, forgive me for stating the obvious, outstanding numbers. Then in round six, Taukeiaho injured his ribs playing the Storm limiting him to 23 points in 28 minutes and forcing him to sit out round seven. Since then Taukeiaho has played five games, four from the bench averaging 49.6PPG (42BPPG) in 48MPG. Those are, forgive or not I’m saying it, less impressive numbers. So unimpressive that the big man’s SC price has plunged from a round five high of $581,300 to an extremely desirable $398,600.

The drop in base and minutes between the two five match stints is very much in synch. The score average decline is more extreme due to the fact that Taukeiaho had the goalkicking duties in the opening five rounds. And he did a fair job of it potting 15/20 attempts at an even 75%. Since then the Roosters have shared the kicking tee between Adam Keighran 16/20 (80%), Sam Walker 15/26 (58%) and James Tedesco 3/7 (43%).

Siosiua Taukeiaho of the Roosters is rested and ready to return to SuperCoach relevance from this round. Picture: Jason McCawley/Getty Images

Keighran is listed to play hooker for this round while (now) first-choice hooker Sam Verrills works his way back to match fitness via the bench. he may kick, but I would think Taukeiaho gets the job back while he’s on the pitch.

And on the pitch he shall be. You see, that rib injury Taukeiaho picked up in round six has been a problem for the big man ever since. And while he played rounds 8-12 he was clearly discomfited and the Roosters were clearly trying to protect him somewhat playing him off the bench and for reduced minutes. Then the bye came along in round 13 and the Roosters opted to give the big man a double break by resting him from the round 14 match against the Titans.

But, and with no offence intended against the fine Gold Coast organisation, things are getting real for the Roosters this week and next with match-ups against the Panthers and Storm. And I fully expect the Roosters to ask a refreshed Taukeiaho to return to his big minute role from here on in. So, if I am correct we should see TKO return to 55-60MPG and history tells me he’s a 60-65PPG player when filling that role. And what should a 60-65PPG FRF cost you right now? Something in the area of $530K or around $130K more (hence the clever headline) than you are being asked to pay for Taukeiaho this week.

Oh, and he covers the round 17 bye too. Yeah, he’s a good get.

CLEARY’S CRAZY BREAK EVEN

Nathan Cleary started the season priced at $734K, and proved he was worth every penny averaging 94.3PPG across the opening eight games of the year. That was enough to see Cleary’s price reach $790K. And then the Penrith halfback went insane scoring 107 (Rd 9), 225 (Rd 10) and 190 (Rd 11) ending that match as KFC SuperCoach NRL’s first million-dollar man. What followed was a very sub-par 54 point effort against the Bulldogs and so as a result Cleary now faces a rather daunting BE of 159 against the Roosters.

But that’s daunting not ‘crazy’. SuperCoach Plus projects Cleary to score 112 against the Roosters - which as a tricolours fan I find somewhat insulting though also unnervingly possible even if it is 44 points higher than Cleary’s career average against the Roosters.

Can Nathan Cleary maintain his incredible SuperCoach price. Picture: Mark Kolbe/Getty Images

And that leads us into crazy country, because even if Cleary does score 112 against the Roosters he will then face the somewhat mind-boggling BE of 224 against the Eels.

This is of course a symptom of the incredibly high scores we have seen in 2021 - what goes up must come down - or continue to score at a record pace simply to maintain altitude. But, for those of us who can claim grizzled ‘veteran status’ these are numbers we’ve never seen before so those of you new to the game please grant us the right to say ‘Crikey!

For reference here’s the BEs and projected scores of some KFC SuperCoach high-flyers:

Player	Rd 15 BE	Projected Rd 15 score	Projected Rd 16 BE
Ryan Papenhuyzen	201	113	145
Nicholas Hynes	171	171	73
Nathan Cleary	159	112	224
David Fifita	151	93	124
Tom Trbojevic	146	114	183

JOEY MANU NEEDS TO PLAY FULLBACK

I’m an unabashed Joseph Manu fan, as probably the best centre in the NRL, but also as an extremely talented player who can legitimately claim to be one of the better fullbacks in the NRL, despite it not being his best position. Still, every single time he gets an opportunity to deputise for James Tedesco, Manu has absolutely smashed it out of the park. This past week, he scored a try, set up another, broke the line once and also assisted another line break. Still, remove the attacking stats and Manu still scored 50 points in base and base attack stats; 37 in hit-ups alone (!) as well as eight points in tackle busts and six in offloads. He’s a freak on the field but he also gets it done on the stats sheet for KFC SuperCoach purposes too.

KEAON KOLOAMATANGI CONTINUES TO IMPROVE

He was tipped in the pre-season to have a breakout season, with some hoping he would start the year on the edge. It didn’t transpire in Round 1, but due to injury and other opportunity, he started from Round 2 onwards. Since then, he continues to get better each week and looks likely to notch attacking stats every week. Importantly, he averages 54 points in base and base attack stats each week – a strong floor for someone with his potential upside given the team he plays for, and their upcoming draw. Getting to experience the NSW Blues’ Origin camp for Game 1 would have been an amazing experience for his development, and we saw the immediate fruits of it in Round 14. Perhaps there is much more to come from this week onwards!

MATT TIMOKO LOOKS LIKE A GREAT SUPERCOACH OPTION…

… if he manages to hold down a spot. Timoko topped the game for both tackles and run metres, an amazing feat for a centre, and those numbers translated to KFC SuperCoach points too! In his score of 83, once you remove his try assist and line break, he was still able to score 61 points in base and base attack stats due to his massive tackle numbers and numerous tackle busts. Arguably that might be because of the lopsided match-up against a past-his-prime Dale Copley, but thankfully he has only played one game and there is an opportunity to see how he goes against a different opponent this week.

GREG MARZHEW IS EVERY BIT AS GOOD AS WE THOUGHT HE WOULD BE

It’s been a long journey to first grade for Greg, spanning multiple clubs and multiple seasons, but Greg Marzhew has now played two games, and showed us exactly what we thought he would be – a high workrate, tackle-busting MACHINE who is perfectly suited for KFC SuperCoach. With 61 points and 57 points across his first two games, Marzhew is putting up numbers better than many 80 minute backrowers. The only question mark about Marzhew is his actual first grade job security, but there’s no doubting it – if he’s playing, he’s worth a play in our KFC SuperCoach teams!

JACOB LIDDLE IS A TRYSCORING MACHINE (KIND OF)

There’s no doubting it – this guy knows how to score a try! Not usually a trait associated with a hooker, but check these numbers out – Liddle has scored 11 tries in 55 games in his short, injury-interrupted career so far; but he has scored seven tries in 18 games as a starting hooker! The less than impressive part about him though is that he seems to struggle to set up tries for his team, with just two try assists and three try contributions in his 55 games. That’s certainly part of the criticism about his game, and he will need to develop that aspect of his play as a hooker among other areas too!

Originally published as SuperCoach Plus Article: Seeing sense in selecting Siosiua for round 15