State of Origin back up rater: Who will - and who will not - play club footy after Game I

Looking for that crucial SuperCoach NRL bye round edge? Max Bryden breaks down the chances of every State of Origin selectee backing up for their club in round 13.

There’s usually going to be a correlation between being good at SuperCoach and getting a call up for State of Origin (unless you’re Terrell May).

So with that in mind, there’s no shock to see several key SuperCoach stars featuring in Game 1 of State of Origin. But with a crucial ‘mini bye’ week upcoming in Round 13, will these players back up for their clubs?

We’ve dug through the data to tell you which players are most and least likely to feature for their clubs in Round 13.

Who will, and who will not, back up after Origin I?

ORIGIN BACK UP INDEX: 0% chance of backing up

Stephen Crichton, Max King, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

We’ve started off being a bit cheeky in calling out these players who are no chance of backing up due to the fact their clubs - the Bulldogs and Dolphins have a bye in round 13.

ORIGIN BACK UP INDEX: 33% chance of backing up.

Brian To’o | 2.4% owned

The issue facing To’o isn’t the turnaround time - he will have four days between Origin I and the Panthers game. The issue is his hamstring which he’s already injured twice this year. For all To’o’s in-game toughness, the toll is often paid by his club with the hard working winger only backing up once from three club games post Origin in the past two years. And with the Panthers already having identified Round 16 as a game their Origin stars will not back up from, I am predicting time off for To’o to make sure his hamstring isn’t placed under too much strain.

The Storm will be keen to have Cameron Munster back up from Origin. Picture: Getty Images

ORIGIN BACK UP INDEX: 66% chance of backing up

Cameron Munster | 45.6% owned

Arguably the biggest talking point out of Origin will be whether or not Munster backs up. The last time Munster played in State of Origin was 2023 and the Storm star backed up after two of the three games and the game he missed was as a result of illness as opposed to a planned rest. All the evidence points to the likelihood that Munster will back up against the Titans, the fact the game is in the same state three days later certainly helps his case. But after last year’s tendon injuries, some rest may be what Munster needs ahead of a deep finals run.

Payne Haas | 58.3% owned

Already in doubt for the Origin game itself, it’s safe to say the Brisbane Broncos are likely worried about how Haas’ body is going to hold up throughout the season. But the evidence in his career to date paints a different story. After both the 2023 and 2024 State of Origin fixtures, Haas backed up in two out of three Broncos games but played fewer minutes than average. History tells us he will get a rest at some point, but the question has to be when do we think that will come? The Broncos playing three days after Origin I in Sydney is feasibly enough time for him to get ready to play. Also Origin II is the more difficult fixture given the game is to be played in Perth. So in all, I’m predicting that, barring injury, Haas will turn out for the Broncos but play a decreased role. We could also see those decreased minutes roll into Round 14 as well.

Pat Carrigan | 16.1% owned

There aren’t many tougher and fitter forwards in the game but even the best need a breather sometimes. Over the last two seasons, Carrigan has backed up in two out of three post-Origin rounds and I think we can expect the same strike rate this year. I am predicting Carrigan to play in Round 13 but see reduced minutes.

Xavier Coates | 7.8% owned

Arguably the form winger of the competition, Coates will be wanted by Storm coach Craig Bellamy but caution may be the best approach. Last year Coates missed the State of Origin decider after a hamstring tear immediately after Game II. This history, plus the pre-season issues faced with his hamstrings already this year, could see the Storm opt for a cautious approach.

Harry Grant | 7.5% owned

Traditionally Grant does backup, and he may well do so given he is expected to split minutes in Origin, but the Storm may tread with caution and play the long game here. Grant’s hamstring injury is arguably worse than what was first reported given he aborted two attempts to come back early and only got through 55 minutes when he did return. With the presence of club backup Bronson Garlick, Grant won’t see big minutes if he does play at all.

The Knights need Kalyn Ponga, but will the two-day turnaround hurt? Picture: Getty Images

ORIGIN BACK UP INDEX: 75% chance of backing up

Kalyn Ponga | 30% owned

The Knights ladder position puts pressure on Kalyn Ponga to back up. However, with his side having only a two-day turnaround ahead of a Friday night clash with St. George in Sydney, it’s a tough ask for him to do so and the coaching staff could opt to keep young Fletcher Sharpe at fullback.

Valentine Holmes | 10% owned

The pros: Holmes long established history of backing up post Origin and not only playing, but dominating the SuperCoach scores.

The cons: Holmes has the shortest time to backup of any player (alongside Ponga) of only two days post Origin, and the game is in Sydney.

Holmes will want to play and likely does pending injury. But it’ll be a nervous watch on Wednesday night to make sure he gets through unscathed.

Zac Lomax of the Eels. Picture: Getty Images

ORIGIN BACK UP INDEX: 80% chance of backing up

Zac Lomax | 4.1% owned

A four day turnaround for Lomax is more than enough time for Lomax to prepare to go again. After missing time early in the season due to a foot issue, Lomax will be keen to repay the Eels faithful for their support with a big performance against the defending premiers at their shared home-ground in Parramatta.

Mitch Barnett | 5.5% owned

The Warriors have options to replace Barnett but he is their club captain and accordingly you can expect Barney to back off of a four day turn around. There could be a hit to his minutes, but otherwise it’ll be business as usual for the inspirational forward.

Dylan Edwards | 2.7% owned

After beating out the contenders to retain the NSW number 1 jersey, Edwards is blessed with a four-day turnaround until his club’s match. And with the current ladder position that the Panthers find themselves in, he may have little choice than to back up albeit an early shower could be in order so expect to see Daine Laurie to be selected as cover on the bench.

Souths fans can expact to be cheering on Latrell Mitchell in round 13. Picture: Getty Images

ORIGIN BACK UP INDEX: 90% chance of backing up

Latrell Mitchell | 2.4% owned

There’s no doubting Mitchell will be desperate to play and a four day backup certainly helps his chances of doing so. Expect the Souths fullback to be named.

Mitchell Moses | 5.3% owned

Not highly rostered in SuperCoach, Moses commitment to his state cannot be questioned after he literally broke his back during last year’s win at Suncorp. Having a four day turnaround before a crucial Western Sydney derby against his Origin halves partner in Penrith’s Cleary is not likely to be something that Moses wants to miss. Accordingly, barring injury, it’s highly likely Moses backs up for his Eels.

Nathan Cleary | 45.6% owned

No man means more to his club than Cleary, and with their current ladder position it’s hard to see him missing a club game four days after his State of Origin return. Be warned - like all of the Penrith options mentioned on this list, Coach Ivan Cleary has already flagged that his players are unlikely to back up from Origin II due to the Origin game being in Perth and the Panthers game in Auckland.

Reece Robson | 2.8% owned

As tough as the Origin arena is, Robson will be spelled by Connor Watson at hooker. He’s also blessed with a short trip back to Townsville (well, short by the Cowboys travel standards) to face the Tigers. It’s only a three-day turnaround but Robson will be keen to play.

Liam Martin | 6.2% owned

Martin’s fitness has been solid this year in a break from last year’s hamstring issues. That cannot be said for his clubmates who have suffered a number of recent injuries which has left their backrow stocks paper thin. Martin will have to play if he’s fit, albeit expect him to be rotated to the bench at some point.

Isaah Yeo | 11.6% owned

Looking over the last two years of data doesn’t tell the full picture for Penrith who are faced with the prospect of missing finals if they cannot start winning over the Origin period. Traditionally Yeo’s minutes have been managed over this period to help him get through, but I think he has to play - and play significant minutes - to give Penrith the best shot at winning.

Connor Watson | 23.2% owned

Likely to only play limited minutes off of the bench in Origin I, Watson is likely to feature significantly for the Chooks four days after the Origin game back in Sydney.

Spencer Leniu | 2.8% owned

See above. Leniu will start for the Chooks and play his usual minutes.

Hudson Young | 9.3% owned

Playing the final game of the NRL round and coming off the bench in Origin I, it would take a lot for Hudson Young to miss action for his club. However, we may see some rotation in his minutes over the period given the edge options Canberra have in Simi Sasagi and Zac Hosking.

Robert Toia | 53% owned

The 10 game veteran needs to get through the game unscathed but looks likely to be named for the Chooks to play four days after his Origin debut.

Daly Cherry-Evans | 5.6% owned

DCE plays. Plain and simple. You have to go a long way back to remember him missing a game.

Moeaki Fotuaika | 0.5% owned

With a game just down the road on the Gold Coast post Origin, Fotuaika will line up for the Titans but could see a slight reduction in his minutes.

Tino Fa’asuamaleaui | 57% owned

Three days after Origin is when the Titans turn out, and with a home game down the road on the Gold Coast, barring injury the skipper plays albeit likely less minutes than usual.

Jeremiah Nanai | 2.6% owned

His body is healthy, and his role in Origin may not require him to play the full 80 minutes. As such Nanai will back up for the Cowboys but could see fewer minutes with a second rower carried on the bench to spell him.

Reuben Cotter | 2.2% owned

Cotter is fresh having just completed a two-game suspension. Played two out of three backup games last year and was only kept out due to suffering a concussion in Origin II. He will give his all in Origin and only a serious injury would keep him from doing so for the Cowboys too

Tom Dearden | 5.3% owned

Coming off the bench for the Maroons makes it almost certain that Dearden will feature three days later for the Cowboys in Townsville. As one of the fittest men in the comp, it’d take a lot to keep him off the paddock.

Lindsay Collins | 1.4% owned

As a bench player for Queensland, Collins’ minutes aren’t expected to be huge in the Origin arena. But having just returned to action from a MCL injury, expect his minutes to also be monitored at clubland.

Trent Loiero | 0.9% per cent owned

Coming off the bench, the Queensland debutant isn’t expected to be carrying a huge amount of minutes on Wednesday night and has the benefit of staying in Queensland for his clubs match-up against the Titans. Storm coach Bellamy will likely decrease his minutes to ensure there’s no major fatigue accruing, but barring injury Loiero will front up for his club.

Beau Fermor | 17.1 per cent owned

You can take everything said about Tino and repeat it down here, albeit in shorter minutes off the bench/ It is likely we will see Fermor still punch out his usual 80 minutes for the Titans.

ORIGIN BACK UP INDEX: 99% chance of backing up

Angus Crichton | 4.7% owned

The big product out of Young is as tough as they come and will play 80 minutes on the edge for the Chooks four days after Origin. There’s no ands, ifs or buts. Pending a serious injury it’s a lock.

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Originally published as State of Origin back up rater: Who will - and who will not - play club footy after Game I