NRL teams round 1 2022: KFC SuperCoach analysis, how to handle Nathan Cleary crisis

Teams are in for round one and as usual it’s back to the drawing board for KFC Supercoaches. Tom Sangster reveals how to make the most of TLT.

The injury to Nathan Cleary has turned KFC SuperCoach on its head.

The Penrith playmaker will miss the first three rounds of the season and is therefore a sell for the 20 per cent who own him.

But it’s not just as simple as one trade to another halfback because Cleary is worth $250,000 more than the next most expensive halfback and selling therefore creates a big wad of cash.

This means KFC SuperCoaches can completely change the balance of their side, including big upgrades in other positions.

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Nathan Cleary is out for the first three weeks (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)

A few important points:

* Cleary was a clear position leader last season — 30 points ahead per game of the next best halfback. Ideally, the money created by selling Cleary should be spend on another position leader. In other words, expect Tom Trbojevic and David Fifita to surge in popularity.

* There are a host of great replacements for Cleary, but keep one thing in mind — you’ll want at least one player worth decent money in the halves so the upgrade to Cleary in about round six doesn’t cost too much. Luke Keary, Sam Walker, Mitchell Moses, Daly Cherry-Evans and Nicho Hynes are all popular and worthy replacements at halfback. Toby Sexton of the Titans is the bolter. Alternatively, use the big money created to upgrade you five-eighth slot with Cody Walker or Cameron Munster.

* The absence of Cleary will likely have a negative impact Penrith’s attack. As our great KFC SuperCoach friend Ian Maybanks points out, the Panthers won 5/8 without Cleary. They averaged 31 points with him in the team and just 17 without him. This could force KFC SuperCoaches to rethink Brian To’o as a buy as tries make up a big part of his scoring, but a player like Izack Tago is too cheap to ignore regardless of Cleary’s absence.

WINNERS

* Ryan Papenhuyzen - Pap is back despite being touted as “highly unlikely”. By my calculations, he’s underpriced by 37 points a game, so he’s a serious option if he makes the final 17. One to follow in Late Mail, but surely his ownership goes through the roof in the next few hours/days.

* Viliami Vailea - At just 1.5 per cent ownership prior to teams day, the young Warrior has come from nowhere to score a starting centre spot at the Warriors. Any bottom dollar backline cheapie named for round one is a near-must, so lock him in. The 19-year-old played two games last year for 27 points a game, which hardly yells “buy me”. But he did only average 66 minutes, so add in that extra game time and you’re looking at a solid base.

* Josh King - Another cheapie coming in from nowhere. He’s currently in just 2.2 per cent of teams but will shortly be one of the most popular players in the game. King has a big game time opportunity after being named starting lock for the Storm, who are without Dale Finucane (Sharks) and Tui Kamikamica (legal), while Brandon Smith leaves the middle rotation to play hooker in place of Harry Grant (suspension), albeit for just one week. King notched 37 KFC SuperCoach points against the Warriors in the final trial, including 11 runs for 98 metres.

* Kelma Tuilagi - Set to surge from 14 per cent ownership after being named to start on an edge at the injury-hit Tigers, who are without Shawn Blore (ACL). In positive signs for job security, he’s been named ahead of his main competition Luke Garner, who is on the bench. Must-have cheapie.

* Brad Schneider - The Canberra young gun has been named at halfback in place of recruit Jamal Fogarty (knee, four months). If that’s not enough — and clearly it’s not given he’s at just 15 per cent ownership — he will kick goals following the dropping of Jarrod Croker to NSW Cup.

* Jirah Momoisea - Another under-the-radar cheapie who everyone should own. Currently at just 11 per cent ownership, Momoisea has scored a bench spot at the Knights and has crucial dual position flexibility. The injury to Daniel Saifiti (five weeks) only helps his cause.

* Tolutau Koula - Named on the bench for the Sea Eagles, which is hardly ideal. We’d prefer he be named to start or not at all. Either way, it shows he’s well in the mix at the Sea Eagles and surely we can forgive a few poor scores in limited minutes at the start of the season for future gains down the track once he scores a starting spot. He’s in my team.

* Max King - Not to be confused with Josh King (above), Max is a former Storm prop who has scored a bench spot at the Bulldogs. Owned by a quarter of KFC SuperCoaches, King had a very strong trial against the Knights, running for 106 metres from 14 runs for 46 KFC SuperCoach points.

* Lachlan Ilias, Izack Tago, Talatau Amone, Will Penisini, Chris Randall - Obvious cheapies. We’ve talked them up all pre-season and the predictions proved correct. Just lock them in. Click here if you need to know more.

* Ethan Bullemor - Extremely popular cheapie at 32 per cent ownership after scoring a starting edge back row spot at the Sea Eagles. He should hold the spot for six weeks until Josh Schuster (ankle) returns in round six, meaning serious price rises are on the way.

* Luke Keary - The Roosters star has been cleared to return from ACL and foot injuries and becomes far more relevant following the injury to Nathan Cleary. Sneaky POD in the halves.

Luke Keary returns from injury. Picture: Justin Lloyd

* Jai Arrow - The predictions have been confirmed with Arrow to start on an edge at the Rabbitohs, who have lost Jaydn Su’A. With dual position flexibility, he’s a serious option at 17 per cent ownership.

* David Fifita - Last year’s top-averaging backrower is back to 80 minutes this season, so theoretically could improve on his massive 2021 where he averaged just 66 minutes. Fifita is a clear position leader and takes on fresh relevance following the injury to Cleary.

* Jason Taumalolo - Named at lock. Tick. Confirmed to play big minutes by assistant coach Dean Young. Tick. Priced at just $485,700 following last year’s meagre showings. Tick. Should be owned by far more than 15 per cent.

LOSERS

* Nathan Cleary - Last year’s clear halfback leader has been ruled out for three weeks with a shoulder injury and is therefore a sell for the near-20 per cent who own him.

* Tepai Moeroa - Owned by a massive 34 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches, Moeroa is a sell after missing the Storm squad altogether. Josh King (above) is now the forward cheapie option at the Storm.

* Cory Paix - Missed the squad altogether despite being tipped to start in the Brisbane No. 9. Time to rethink your hooker cheapie options.

* Ben Trbojevic - Extremely popular cheapie at 32 per cent ownership. But will miss the first month or so due to injury. Sell.

* Jordan Pereria - The heavily-fancied cheapie has missed a wing spot for the Broncos and should be moved on ASAP.

* Joseph Suaalii - Once the most popular player in all of KFC SuperCoach during the pre-season, Suaalii is confirmed to miss the opening rounds. But it’s just a matter of time before he plays NRL in 2022, so there is an argument to keep him in your side as a non-player and save a trade.

* George Burgess - Will play NSW Cup for the Dragons as he eases back from serious hip surgery and is therefore a sell for the 12 per cent who own him.

* Taylan May, Xavier Savage, Isaiah Tass, Ezra Mam - All very popular cheapies. But as predicted, all have missed their respective 17s for round one and should be traded.

* Paul Alamoti - An ankle injury has ruled the Bulldogs cheapie out for the first two months of the season.

KEY SUSPENSIONS

* Latrell Mitchell, Harry Grant, Cameron Munster - These guys are all KFC SuperCoach weapons, but will miss the opening round due to suspension. You can probably carry one, but which one?

Originally published as NRL teams round 1 2022: KFC SuperCoach analysis, how to handle Nathan Cleary crisis