NRL SuperCoach: When you should make James Tedesco captain

Getting your captain right each week is a minefield and can either make or break you. To help out, The Mastermind has analysed the numbers of the most popular captains. Today, it’s James Tedesco.

• MASTERMIND: Players who score most negative points

• SUPERCOACH: Breaking down the halfbacks and 5/8s

PICKING the right captain each week is a crucial decision that we’re all going to get wonderfully right – and horribly wrong – at some point in the season.

Throwing the ‘c’ on a particular player can be a dance of clicking on and off your superstars. Do you go with your gut? Do you try to copy what you think your opponent is going to do? Or do you read The Mastermind’s deep dive analysis of when superstars tend to go big or tend to drop off during the season?

Spoiler: It’s the latter.

We’ve crunched the numbers to see if there’s any correlation between time of year, opponent and venue – amongst other things – in whether your best players hit the dizzying heights of captaincy glory or get swallowed up in a performance that makes you throw your phone across the lounge room, smashing the new TV and making you question whether you should have quit those anger management sessions.

Today, it’s James Tedesco.

James Tedesco has a habit of leaving Eels players in his wake. Picture. Phil Hillyard

TEDESCO’S BEST OPPONENTS

(Best to worst averages)

Eels: 90.4

Titans: 80.6

Bulldogs: 78.2

Dragons: 77.9

Sea Eagles: 71.2

Warriors: 71.1

Knights: 70.6

Roosters: 69.6

Rabbitohs: 68.6

Raiders: 66.1

Panthers: 61.7

Broncos: 61.0

Storm: 58.8

Cowboys: 53.0

Tigers: 51.5

Sharks: 49.3

ANALYSIS: The Eels more than any other team has felt the brunt of a Tedesco masterclass, with his past five performances against them going for more than 70 points – including 180 and 133 in his last two games.

On recent history, the Roosters superstar also likes playing against the Titans (91, 82, 155), the Raiders (74, 118, 82) and the Broncos (75, 85, 84, 79).

There’s not many teams that he’s struggled against, but his past three scores against the Cowboys have been 46, 38 and 57, while he’s only ever gone 70+ once against the Storm, and that was back in 2015.

And while his average is poor against the Sharks, it’s greatly reduced by scores of 12, 23 and 14 while at the Tigers. His past two scores against them have been 70+.

Tedesco’s best score against the Dragons came in Round 23 last year. Picture: Matt King/Getty Images

TEDESCO’S BEST ROUNDS

(Best to worst average)

R25: 98.8

R18: 95

R2: 94.8

R23: 89.8

R13: 84.2

R12: 82

R21: 79.3

R20: 78.3

R22: 74.1

R24: 72.6

R17: 72.3

R5: 70.4

R14: 69.1

R3: 66.5

R19: 62.6

R6: 62.5

R10: 62.4

R1: 61.4

R8: 60.3

R7: 59.1

R11: 57.4

R15: 52.3

R9: 50.8

R4: 49.2

R16: 45.2

ANALYSIS: He tends to take one game to get into the groove, goes bang in Round 2, is hit and miss through the guts of the season, and then smashes it after Round 20.

Tedesco has gone for 120+ points ten times in his career, and six of those came in the final five rounds of the season.

The complication this season is that the Roosters play the Sea Eagles, Eels, Sharks, Storm, Rabbitohs and Broncos to finish the season – all teams pushing for a finals birth.

Put the skipper tag on Tedesco in Round 2 against the Sea Eagles. Picture: Matt King/Getty Images

BEST FOUR CAPTAIN ROUNDS IN 2020

ROUND 2 V SEA EAGLES

This is prime Tedesco areas. Give him a week to warm up then let him loose. The Roosters champ has scored more than 90 points four times from his six Round 2 games. On top of that, he’s in a one on, one off routine with the Sea Eagles, scoring 157, then 47, 137, 48, 113, and 52. He’s due for a big one.

ROUND 4 V TITANS

Just about everyone scores well against the Titans. Tedesco’s past three games against the Gold Coast have netted scores of 91, 82 and 155. Ignore his Round 4 average. The Titans are money for jam.

ROUND 21 v EELS

Teddy has a fair dinkum love affair with playing the Eels. His past five games have seen him score 72, 95, 74, 180 and 133. Coupled with the fact he tends to average big scores after Round 20, you can lock him in as skipper for this one.

ROUND 10 v KNIGHTS

Tedesco’s coming off scores of 90 and 95 against the Knights while playing for the Roosters, while his past two Round 10 matches he’s put up scores of 83 and 79, Should be a safe bet.

WORST FOUR CAPTAIN ROUNDS IN 2020

ROUND 8 V COWBOYS

For whatever reason, Tedesco just doesn’t seem to perform against the Cowboys. In his seven games against them he’s scored more than 80 just once, and gone sub-60 five times. Avoid him if you can here.

ROUND 9 V STORM

It’s rare that Tedesco puts up two bad games in a row, but he’s a chance to do it here. The superstar has played Melbourne nine times and cracked the ton once, with every other score below 70 – including 47, 52, 56 and 54 in his past four matches. Include the fact he tends to drop off mid-season (five scores less than 60 in Round 9 from six matches) and he’s very much an avoid.

ROUND 5 V SHARKS

Tedesco averages his worst scores against the Sharks, although most of those came early in his career. However, his past three games against Cronulla have seen him score 76, 76 and 14, so while solid, you might want to temper expectations.

ROUND 17 V DRAGONS

If he plays, it’ll be off the back of a short break from Origin. Has a love/hate relationship with the Dragons, going 83, 61, 108, 57, and 134. Plays the Dragons earlier in the season so that might be the one he fires on.

TEDESCO’S SCORES OF 90+

(Top to bottom)

180 - Round 25, 2018 v Eels at ANZ Stadium

157 - Round 2, 2016 v Sea Eagles at Leichhardt

155 - Round 20, 2019 v Titans at the SCG

137 - Round 23, 2017 v Sea Eagles at Leichhardt

134 - Round 21, 2015 v Storm at Leichhardt

134 - Round 23, 2019 v Dragons at Jubilee Stadium

133 - Round 3, 2019 v Eels at ANZ Stadium

126 - Round 1, 2017 v Rabbitohs at ANZ Stadium

125 - Round 25, 2015 v Warriors at Campbelltown

123 - Round 14, 2015 v Rabbitohs at ANZ Stadium

118 - Round 9, 2019 v Raiders at Suncorp Stadium

116 - Round 2, 2014 v Titans at Cbus Super Stadium

114 - Round 17, 2015 v Eels at ANZ Stadium

113 - Round 2, 2018 v Bulldogs at Allianz Stadium

113 - Round 19, 2018 v Sea Eagles at Lottoland

108 - Round 20, 2018 v Dragons at Allianz Stadium

107 - Round 13, 2014 v Knights at Hunter Stadium

105 - Round 22, 2015 v Raiders at GIO Stadium

103 - Round 5, 2016 v Sharks at Campbelltown

100 - Round 22, 2019 v Warriors at the SCG

99 - Round 19, 2019 v Bulldogs at ANZ Stadium

95 - Round 2, 2015 v Dragons at Campbelltown

95 - Round 7, 2017 v Eels at ANZ Stadium

95 - Round 18, 2019 v Knights at the SCG

94 - Round 1, 2014 v Dragons at ANZ Stadium

91 - Round 21, 2017 v Titans at Cbus Super Stadium

90 - Round 11, 2019 v Knights at Hunter Stadium