NRL SuperCoach Stat Attack: The numbers set to decide 2019

Everyone knows the guns, everyone knows the cheapies, but your resident stats nerd is here to unearth the hidden gems.

Everyone knows the guns, everyone knows the cheapies, but your resident stats nerd is here to unearth the hidden gems that will get you ahead of the curve (your mates!) for H2H or overall glory.

This MONSTER pre season edition uncovers the stats pointing to initial team selections that will make all the difference come the business end of the season. Teams with the best draw to start, players worth ‘paying up’ for, the nuances of a new scoring rule, an underpriced gem in the halves, my boy GOD 2.0 and plenty more!

Damien Cook | #1, 43 to 78

Cook broke all sorts of records last season, but the most incredible one was knocking Cameron Smith off his perch as the best hooker in the game by well over 250 points. Not only did Cook manage that, but he also finished as the top overall player with 1,707 points at an average of 77.6PPG.

Having played as a bench hooker at times the previous two seasons, averaging 40PPG and 43PPG, Cook made the jump to an 80-minute role with ease and surged a humungous 25PPG up to 77.6PPG.

A total of 77% of Cook’s 22 matches in 2018 resulted in over 60 points ... Quite incredible consistency really. As a result of these amazing stats, Cook starts as the most expensive player in SuperCoach at $726,000. Will you be paying up?

Stats to define SuperCoach 2019.

Try Contribution | +4

Have you heard about this new stat in SuperCoach 2018? No longer is there a ‘Last Touch Assist’ (formerly +6 points) to accompany the long standing ‘Try Assist’ (+12 points) and joining the scoring system is the ‘Try Contribution’ (+4 points), defined as:

“Try Contributions could be awarded to multiple players involved in a try-scoring play. In rare circumstances a player from the previous play could also pick up a Try Contribution if deemed worthy.”

So, who are the big winners here? In my opinion it will almost wholeheartedly bump up the averages of all halves, who often were just that one pass short of earning the try assist, but clearly create the space for attacking raids. Let’s take a look at the biggest winners had this stat been in place last season.

WINNERS FROM SCORE CHANGE

PLAYER	TRY CONTRIBUTIONS	LAST TOUCH ASSIST	POINT CHANGE
C. Walker	22	3	70
A. Reynolds	17	1	62
L. Keary	15	0	60
A. Milford	14	0	56
S. Johnson	14	1	50
B. Hunt	15	2	48
A. Taylor	12	0	48
J. Thurston	11	0	44
J. Maloney	13	2	40
C. Cronk	10	0	40

LOSERS FROM SCORE CHANGE

PLAYER	TRY CONTRIBUTIONS	LAST TOUCH ASSIST	POINT CHANGE
C. McInnes	3	9	-42
A. McCullough	0	5	-30
N. Peats	1	4	-20
D. Levi	0	3	-18
M. Rein	1	3	-14
J. Segeyaro	1	3	-14
S. Katoa	0	2	-12
M. McIlwrick	0	2	-12
M. Lichaa	0	2	-12
K. Pritchard	0	2	-12

Most owned | 10

Want to play it safe? Go with the herd? Well here are the most owned players SuperCoaches worldwide are locking in to their teams according to SuperCoach Stats with less than a month to go until the NRL begins.

Zac Lomax CTW | FLB ($196,900 | Dragons) - 53.6% of teams

Payne Haas FRF ($181,100 | Broncos) - 47.9%

Dylan Brown HFB | 5/8 ($168,100 | Eels) - 46.2%

Tevita Pangai Jnr FRF | 2RF ($495,000 | Broncos) - 42.1%

Albert Hopoate CTW | FLB ($168,100 | Sea Eagles) - 40.6%

Kalyn Ponga 5/8 | FLB ($614,300 | Knights) - 39.5%

Jake Trbojevic 2RF ($667,600 | Sea Eagles) - 38.4%

James Tedesco FLB ($689,000 | Roosters) - 35.5%

Latrell Mitchell CTW ($595,000 | Roosters) - 33.3%

Corey Allan CTW ($168,100 | Rabbitohs) - 31.7%

James Tedesco is the only survivor from last year’s top 10 most selected, in a noticeable shift from the likes of Cameron Smith, Sam Burgess, Johnathan Thurston and Paul Gallen to the ‘next gen’ of stars — Ponga, TPJ, Jake Turbo and Latrell.

Rabbitohs | 761.8

By way of early season matchups, it really doesn’t get any better than the Rabbitohs — including coverage of the all-important round 12 bye. Barring a week one matchup with the reigning premiers, the Rabbitohs play the following teams in rounds 2-12:

Dragons, Titans (H), Sea Eagles, Warriors (H), Bulldogs, Panthers, Broncos (H), Cowboys (H), Raiders, Tigers (H) and Eels.

That is an extraordinary run, with positive matchups in terms of SuperCoach points conceded in EVERY game and an average POINTS CONCEDED of 761.8 per match — the highest by far of any team in the early phase of the season. So, what does this mean? Players like Damien Cook, Sam Burgess, Cody Walker and Cam Murray will all be very astute selections, and cheapies like Corey Allan will have every opportunity to put on points and make us cash! Invest.

Cody Walker is set for a fast start.

Michael Morgan | 43.7 vs. 67

Sans JT, there is a new era in Townsville, and one man many are overlooking is Michael Morgan.

After a somewhat disappointing season in 2018, averaging just 43.7PPG with the return of JT and a season ending injury after just 11 matches, Morgan is priced at just $409,200 and many will forget just how good this man can be.

Rewind to the previous three seasons, and Morgan averaged 58.7PPG, 58.6PPG and 58.9PPG. Yep, I think that’s a pretty good sample size of consistency! What makes this under the radar purchase even more appealing is when JT was sidelined for the final 16 matches of the 2017 season, Morgan went berserk and increased his average to 67PPG.

Given the incredible forward pack the Cowboys have (Taumalolo, McGuire, McLean, Hess, Scott etc) to give Morgan time and space, Morgan is at least $150k underpriced. Shhh….

Michael Morgan has a great record without Johnathan Thurston in the side. Picture: Zak Simmonds

CTW conundrum | 61.34

Many SuperCoaches are running multiple cheapies in the CTW this season and are extremely unsure of which ‘guns’ to pick. Well, there is a SuperCoach Stats consistency marker, but the formula I’m using here is the past three seasons of data — games played, overall points and average of the most selected CTWs.

This is about finding the most reliable (always in the top echelon of scorers), resilient (you can’t afford to have your guns missing the early stages with so many cheapies on field) and ultimately players dishing up ‘value’ worth paying up for each year. Here’s the list of GUNS only, in order of ownership:

Latrell Mitchell (67 matches) - 1,399 + 1,143 + 1,042 = 3,584 points | 53.49PPG

Jamayne Isaako (25 matches | debut in 2017) - 1,337 + 27 = 1,364 points | 54.56PPG

Jack Bird (60 matches | 2015-17 only) - 762 + 1,192 + 1,213 = 3,167 points | 52.78PPG

Esan Marsters (37 matches | debut in 2017) - 693 + 1,458 = 2,151 points | 58.13PPG

Jarrod Croker (63 matches) - 926 + 1,217 + 1,722 = 3,865 points | 61.34PPG

Josh Addo-Carr (55 matches) - 1,125 + 1,249 + 402 = 2,776 points | 50.47PPG

Tyrone Peachey (67 matches) - 1,065 + 1,072 + 1,276 = 3,413 points | 50.1PPG

Clint Gutherson (61 matches) - 892 + 1,214 + 1,207 = 3,313 points | 54.3PPG

Nick Cotric (48 matches | debut in 2017) - 1,157 + 1,189 = 2,346 points | 48.87PPG

Josh Mansour (49 matches) - 638 + 662 + 1,452 = 2,752 points | 56.16PPG

Croker is king, with an average of 61.34PPG across the past three seasons! Well in advance of his nearest rivals for consistency. The fluctuation in games played and major injuries has some effect, but this list gives you a great indication of who you can lock in and throw away the key...

LISTEN! Resident SuperCoach experts Tom Sangster and Tim Williams have the lowdown on the players to target and avoid in 2019.

Trades | 37 & 1.48

If you weren’t aware, last season the NRL reduced the amount of regular season matches by one game (25 rounds) for each team, and changed the bye/Origin structure. As a result, SuperCoaches now have three trades less. Yes, those little men at the top left of your team page will disappear even quicker!

It shouldn’t need to be said, but 37 trades does NOT equate to you being able to use two every week. 37 trades into 25 weeks = 1.48 trades per week. So what does this mean? Show some discipline!

In years gone past 40 trades into 26 rounds was the equation, with two trades per week and the three ‘big’ bye rounds seeing four trades available to trade-a-holics such as myself. This year, its just plain two per week even in the two major bye weeks, with one ‘SUPER Trade Week’ between rounds 15 and 16 to set up for the last bye round and the run home.

‘Quick Maffs’ says if you use all available trades up until after the round 17 bye week, you’ll be left with ZERO trades with plenty of season remaining, and with easier bye-planning this year you will need some left to be competitive! Big Shaq knows all.

Rhyse Martin | 80 = #1 & 74

‘GOD 2.0’ is what I’ve been calling him. But with the logjam of back rowers on the Bulldogs’ 2019 roster (Jackson, Faitala-Mariner, Harawira-Naera, Elliot, Sue etc), will this superstar be able to play the full 80 minutes every week? We will have to watch the trials for that answer, but if he does, he will be the best 2RF in the game. Yes, better than Jake Turbo, Taumalolo and Crichton.

Last season, after making his debut in round nine against the Broncos, Martin played 12 full 80-minute matches (taking two injury affected games out), producing monster scores of 79, 82, 61, 63, 153, 73, 53, 79, 87, 50, 49 and 59 for an average of 74PPG.

To put that in perspective, that’s considerably better than Jake Turbo at 71.3PPG, Taumalolo at 70.1PPG and Crichton at 69.1PPG who were the best in the business last season. The elite goal kicking that Martin provides gives him a real edge, much like his namesake Corey Parker used to. Quite simply, if Martin is playing 80 minutes, you HAVE to find a way to get him into your side ASAP.

Rhyse Martin is a potential SuperCoach great.

Errors & Missed Tackles | -186!

Often neglected when choosing your SuperCoach guns are the negative stats that hold back some players from reaching that upper echelon — namely errors and missed tackles. In combination, these two stat categories have some alarming figures at the top of the tree. Here’s a list of the worst offenders from last season.

James Maloney | -64 points (E) & -122 points (MT) = -186 points

Johnathan Thurston | -88 points (E) & -88 points (MT) = -176 points

Ash Taylor | -102 points (E) & -60 points (MT) = -162 points

Luke Brooks | -72 points (E) & -90 points (MT) = -162 points

Ben Hunt | -54 points (E) & -91 points (MT) = -145 points

These five players aren’t just bad in these areas, they are almost 50 points worse than any other player in the NRL combined across these two detracting stats. Quite simply, if you add 186 points to James Maloney’s 2018 season total of 980 points in 20 matches at a 49PPG average, he jumps up to 1,166 points at 58.3PPG. Significant, isn’t it.

There you have it. Season 2019 is less than a month away, plenty of tinkering to be done between now and then — so get studying! As always, hit us up on @SuperCoachNRL or @copes9 if there are any stats you would love to see. Good luck!

MORE SUPERCOACH:

Full SuperCoach News section / Cheapie Bible / Predicted round one teams / Sangster’s team / Champ’s team / Wilfred’s team / Tallis’s team / Copes’ team / Huge rule change / Top 10 rookies in NRL

Originally published as NRL SuperCoach Stat Attack: The numbers set to decide 2019