NRL SuperCoach: Mastermind looks at the HFB’s who play better against bottom teams
It’s an obvious stat – halfbacks perform better when the heat isn’t on against bottom eight teams. But which playmakers really find the going tough against the best team? The Mastermind is on the case.
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Ben Hunt will be forever remembered as the man who dropped the golden point kick-off in the 2015 grand final.
For a few bold Supercoaches, he’s the man who won us a grand final in 2019 with 116 points in the final round against the Gold Coast Titans.
In The Mastermind’s case he also propelled my team into the top 1000. In a bizarre twist of the NRL draw the Dragons played the Titans in Rounds 20 and 25, making the Dragons halfback an irresistible but risky trade to see out the season.
With Hunt’s heroics in our mind The Mastermind labs have analysed which halfbacks performed best against the top and bottom teams in 2019.
It may seem like stating the obvious. Players will score well against the worst teams. But with the right run of fixtures and surge of form your halfback can send you rocketing up the leaderboard.
Hunt is the biggest of the Supercoach bullies in his position. He posted scores of 134 and 101 against the struggling Bulldogs last year then finished the season with scores of 99 and 116 against the Titans. He also had 122 in 2018 against wooden spooners Eels.
Hunt averages 74.9PPG against the bottom half and 45.6PPG against the top half – a 29.3 point variation. He starts the year with games against the Tigers and Panthers But a tough run from round 6-8 against the Rabbitohs, Roosters and Storm rule him out as a starter for me this season.
Mitchell Pearce averages 60.1PPG against the bottom half and 37.6PPG against the top half a 22.5 point difference. He’s priced at $459,000 but reached a high of $659,100 on the back of a 6-game run of 515 points at 85.8PPG last season featuring centuries against the Warriors and Dragons.
The draw doesn’t look too tough for the Knights with the Raiders and Rabbitohs in the first eight games. He could be worth a look.
Shaun Johnson averaged 71PPG against the bottom eight and 48.1PPG against the top eight a difference of 22.9 points. An injury affected 5 against the Broncos pulled down his average against the big teams but he also missed the chance to pile on the points against the Titans and Dragons. He’s got a tough draw to start the season with games against the Rabbitohs, Storm and Roosters in the first five rounds and also misses the first bye round. His dual position availability at five-eighth and pedigree will entice many – looks to me like one to wait on and trade in Round 13.
Luke Brooks averages 67.2PPG against the bottom eight and 50.3PPG against the top eight. His 2019 season was his best ever in SuperCoach and his first time to average more than 50PPG. The Tigers play six of those bottom eight teams in the opening seven rounds and won’t encounter defensive powerhouses the Storm and Roosters until Round 16 and 18. A very interesting option that’s bound to be point of difference.
If you want to play it safe the likes of Nathan Cleary (68PPG, 4.2 variation), Mitchell Moses (62.3PPG, 5.1 variation), Daly Cherry Evans (62PPG, 8.8 variation) and Adam Reynolds (54.9PPG, 1.4 variation) offer consistent scoring regardless of the opposition.
There are a handful of players that go better against tougher opposition but aside from Michael Morgan (50.8PPG, 6.7 variation) having a massive form revival at the Cowboys, they’re not worth considering for your SuperCoach team.
The one player we don’t have a great sample of data on is Roosters recruit Kyle Flanagan. He played just seven full games last year for the Sharks. Two of those against bottom teams for 56.5PPG and five games against the top teams for 54.2PPG A dual-position, goalkicking playmaker in the competition’s reigning premiers is a recipe for SuperCoach gold. Keep a close eye on him through pre-season.
TOP 8 VS BOTTOM 8 SCORES
BEN HUNT (Dragons)
AVERAGE: 59.6
TOP 8: 45.6 (11 games)
BOTTOM 8: 74.9 (10 games)
DIFFERENCE: -29.3
THINGS TO NOTE: Hunt really was the epitome of a flat-track bully in SuperCoach last year, putting up scores of 134 and 101 against the Bulldogs, before late season hits of 99 and 116 against the Titans. His highest score against a top 8 team was 82 against the Sea Eagles, but registered five sub-40 games against the other top teams.
MITCHELL PEARCE (Knights)
AVERAGE: 49.4
TOP 8: 37.6 (11 games)
BOTTOM 8: 60.1 (12 games)
DIFFERENCE: -22.5
THINGS TO NOTE: Cracked the ton against the Dragons and the Warriors and scored 99 against the Cowboys. Went under 40 points seven times against the top teams, including scores of 11 and 19 against the Storm.
SHAUN JOHNSON (Sharks)
AVERAGE: 63.0
TOP 8: 48.1 (6 games)
BOTTOM 8: 71.0 (11 games)
DIFFERENCE: -21.9
THINGS TO NOTE: Had has average against the top teams hurt by a hamstring injury against the Broncos, scoring just five points in that match. Otherwise registered 98 against the Storm and 86 against the Rabbitohs in just six games against the top 8 teams.
JAHROME HUGHES (Storm)
AVERAGE: 56.4
TOP 8: 46.7 (10 games)
BOTTOM 8: 65.1 (11games)
DIFFERENCE: -18.4
THINGS TO NOTE: Struggled to fire a shot against the top teams with three scores less than 30 and his top score of 74 coming against the Broncos. Two centuries against the bottom teams (Warriors and Titans) lifted his average, but his 40 and 29 against the Bulldogs hurt.
LUKE BROOKS (Tigers)
AVERAGE: 58.1
TOP 8: 50.3 (13 games)
BOTTOM 8: 67.2 (11 games)
DIFFERENCE: -16.9
THINGS TO NOTE: Notched three scores of 90+ against bottom teams while his highest score against a top team came with a 74 against the Sharks. Otherwise nine of his 13 matches against the top 8 saw him score 50 or less.
JACK COGGER (Bulldogs)
AVERAGE: 39.6
TOP 8: 32.2 (9 games)
BOTTOM 8: 47.7 (8 games)
DIFFERENCE: -15.5
THINGS TO NOTE: Not much to see here. You’re probably not going to pick him on overall average anyway.
DALY CHERRY-EVANS (Sea Eagles)
AVERAGE: 62.0
TOP 8: 55.7 (9 games)
BOTTOM 8: 67.6 (10 games)
DIFFERENCE: -11.9
THINGS TO NOTE: An ankle injury against the Raiders saw DCE score just 28 in one of their match-ups, dropping his overall average. Was otherwise pretty solid against the top teams, while a 156 against the Warriors, a 112 against the Knights, and a 91 against the Dragons boosted his stats against the cellar-dwellers.
MITCHELL MOSES (Eels)
AVERAGE: 62.3
TOP 8: 59.5 (11 games)
BOTTOM 8: 64.6 (13 games)
DIFFERENCE: -5.1
THINGS TO NOTE: Not too many concerns here but his average against the top teams was boosted by centuries against the Sharks and the Bunnies. Went under 40 three times from his 11 matches against the top teams.
NATHAN CLEARY (Panthers)
AVERAGE: 68.0
TOP 8: 66.1 (12 games)
BOTTOM 8: 70.3 (9 games)
DIFFERENCE: -4.2
THINGS TO NOTE: Again, no concerns here. A 186 against the Knights was matched by a 139 against the Sharks, and a 29 against the Warriors was matched by a 25 against the Eels. Very consistent across both groups.
KODI NIKORIMA (Warriors)
AVERAGE: 42.9
TOP 8: 41.2 (12 games)
BOTTOM 8: 45.0 (9 games)
DIFFERENCE: -3.8
THINGS TO NOTE: No real interest here. Move on.
ADAM REYNOLDS (Rabbitohs)
AVERAGE: 54.9
TOP 8: 54.1 (10 games)
BOTTOM 8: 55.5 (12 games)
DIFFERENCE: -1.4
THINGS TO NOTE: Mr Consistent. Didn’t score more than 90 in either group, and went under 40 just once in both. Plug him in and you know what you’ll get – solid but not spectactular.
JOHN ASIATA (Cowboys)
AVERAGE: 38.1
TOP 8: 38.1 (13 games)
BOTTOM 8: 38.0 (11 games)
DIFFERENCE: +0.1
THINGS TO NOTE: You’re not picking him. I’m not picking him. We’ve wasted enough time already.
CHAD TOWNSEND (Sharks)
AVERAGE: 50.8
TOP 8: 53.9 (11 games)
BOTTOM 8: 48.1 (13 games)
DIFFERENCE: +5.8
THINGS TO NOTE: A 15 against the Knights and sub-30 efforts against the Titans and Dragons saw Townsend perform better against the top teams. Only went under 30 once against the top teams, in a match-up with the Storm.
MICHAEL MORGAN (Cowboys)
AVERAGE: 50.8
TOP 8: 54.1 (10 games)
BOTTOM 8: 47.4 (10 games)
DIFFERENCE: +6.7
THINGS TO NOTE: Battled against the Broncos with scores of 24 and 36, and a 29 against the Rabbitohs hurt. But sub-3o games against the Tigers, the Knights and the Titans saw his bottom 8 stats drop dramatically.
BRODIE CROFT (Broncos)
AVERAGE: 44.5
TOP 8: 49.0 (11 games)
BOTTOM 8: 40.0 (11 games)
DIFFERENCE: +9.0
THINGS TO NOTE: Was much more consistent for the Storm against the top teams than the bottom teams, possibly because the job was done elsewhere against the lower teams. Will be interesting to see what he can do at Red Hill.
LACHLAN LEWIS (Bulldogs)
AVERAGE: 42.0
TOP 8: 50.7 (8 games)
BOTTOM 8: 32.0 (7 games)
DIFFERENCE: +18.7
THINGS TO NOTE: You won’t pick him, but a +18 stat is worth noting. Mainly boosted by an 84 against the Storm and an 18 against the Panthers.
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