NRL SuperCoach Cheapie Bible: Trent Copeland’s verdict on round 9 bargain buys
After a number of rough weeks on the cheapie front, SuperCoaches need bargains and need them fast. Trent Copeland has some novel solutions.
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Round eight isn’t over yet, but can you feel that?!
It’s that time in every KFC SuperCoach season where you feel like the wind in your sails, that wind that provided such smooth sailing and at times even edge of your seat excitement… Has just been sucked out of us like a vacuum in the space of three days.
Haze Dunster, Josh Schuster, Jarrod Croker on bye, Turuva injured, Hosking not playing 80 minutes, not to mention Turbo, the Haas suspension and the impending byes coming our way. Carnage!
Thankfully, we still have a couple of games to go in Anzac round to lift the spirits, and on the Cheapie Bible front, hopefully some nice prospects on the horizon.
A cheapie by definition is any player under $350k with the rise in salary cap. We will cover off on all of the most important cheapies with a verdict on whether to invest or not. As the season goes along we will give a running verdict on every cheapie that hits our radar, and give a final ‘Bon Voyage’ when they eclipse $350k – if a player is not on the list, we’ve determined they are not a viable selection. Let’s go!
NOTE: At time of writing, lockout hasn’t happened, so BEs and final scores may (will) change slightly.
Jarrod Croker | CTW ($279,900 | CBR)
Croker will be the most purchased player this week*, make no mistake about it. Through two matches in 2023, we’ve seen 40 points with no attacking stats, followed by 40 points with no attacking stats. Not a bad re-start to Croker’s storied SuperCoach career, and there is seemingly some serious money to be made here. Cotric’s re-injury of that hamstring probably makes things safer, but Jordan Rapana and Xavier Savage are still to return, the current injury report says that is happening this week!
VERDICT: BUY. The perfect Turuva, Warbrick or AKP trade down, *IF he’s named to start.
Josh Schuster | 5/8|2RF ($241,200 | MNL) - 22 points
Yuck. Yuck. Yuck.
This was the worry (outside of the obvious injury troubles), Schuster has such low scores in him without attacking stats. 22 points means we’re looking at around a $30,000 price rise, and the 50% of KFC SuperCoaches who own the Sea Eagles five-eighth will be hoping for LOTS more. Alarmingly, at the end of the game Schuster was limping. Hopefully not a recurrence of the injuries from earlier in the season. Maybe it’s time for Siebold to play him in the back row where he’s played his best footy?
VERDICT: HOLD. We bought Schuster for long-term upside and bye coverage, so don’t freak when you see a high BE in the next two weeks.
Jake Granville | HOK ($252,900 | NQC) - 41 points
As mentioned last week when the Cheapie Bible called Jake Granville POD BUY of the week, Granville averaged between 44PPG - 54.2PPG over a five year period between 2015-2019, but in recent years has played solely as a bench utility. Well, with Jason Taumalolo out last week he slotted into lock, played 67 minutes and scored 52 points. Despite being named on the bench, an hour before kickoff Granville was inserted as the starting lock again. 41 points didn’t set the world on fire, but importantly, it was 60 minutes again. Given the BE was -8 heading into this round, Granville will likely be priced around $290,000 heading into round nine. With amazing coverage of the round 13 bye, the switch is on for anyone owning Soni Luke.
VERDICT: BUY. Just don’t be selling Harry Grant or Damien Cook to Granville as HOK1.
Jack Gosiewski | 2RF ($246,200 | NQC) - 47 points
Much like Jarrod Croker, I feel we’ve been down this road before, no? Gosiewski is starting, playing 80 minutes and doing what he does (PPM of roughly 0.5 with very few attacking stats), which has lead to scores of 34 and 47 points respectively over the past two rounds. And at $240k, coverage of round 13 and a negative BE we have to take notice. Along with the lack of scoring upside we’ve seen over many years (likely not much cash to be made), job security is my main concern. We know Luciano Leilua is out indefinitely and Griffin Neame is out until round 15 with the throat injury, but Heilum Luki is potentially returning this week or next from his hamstring issue and he is ahead of Gosiewski in the pecking order. Jeremiah Nanai will likely miss round 13 on Queensland Origin duty, which would see Gosiewski be a valuable number that week, but all of this combined tells us we should steer clear.
VERDICT: AVOID.
Declan Casey | FLB ($265,200 | BUL) - 35 points
Casey is an exciting prospect, and managed to score a try in his first game for the season. 35 points with 27 of those coming from one act (try and line break), the most concerning thing here was the distinct lack of involvement. The Bulldogs lose Kiraz’s league-best work rate of 25+ runs each week and replace that with Casey’s six runs in total. Many have mentioned “Casey is FLB only, he’s not relevant”. My counter to that is the round 12 dual position eligibility updates, and if Casey has played enough on the wing, he will become dual CTW|FLB. Kiraz is listed as a round 11 return, so Casey will need to beat out the much more established Braidon Burns to keep his spot for any price rises. And even then it’ll only be until the Foxx returns in round 14/15. It’s screaming ‘TRAP’ to me, but let’s wait and see.
VERDICT: WATCHLIST.
Jahream Bula | FLB ($200,800 | WST) - 38 points
I like what I saw from Bula in the Tigers’ valiant effort against the Sea Eagles. Unlike Casey, we saw a kid on debut at fullback going toe to toe with the likes of Tom Trbojevic, Cherry-Evans etc who had 21 runs, 10 points in tackle busts, an offload and played both sides of the field in attack (albeit with no significant contributions in the end). Perfect for KFC SuperCoach. The difficulty here is that unlike Casey who may get CTW updated to his position eligibility in round 12, Bula is a straight fullback and won’t be changing – meaning you’d have to forego owning two guns at the highest scoring position in KFC SuperCoach. Unless Bula scores 150 points next week, it’s going to have to be a reluctant avoid.
VERDICT: WATCHLIST.
Phoenix Crossland | HFB|5/8 ($296,200 | NEW) - 38 points
52 points (with a try) in 68 minutes last week, without a single run. Now, 38 points in 69 minutes, you guessed it, without a single run again. Amazingly, Crossland made 42 tackles and ended up with less points. I mean, surely the coaching staff realise this is happening? Jayden Brailey is out for the season, if the Knights are going with this plan rest of season, and their no.9 isn’t going to take on the line a single time each game… Well, I really don’t know what to say. Hard pass for KFC SuperCoach now that we’ve seen two games of data.
VERDICT: HOLD/AVOID. If you’re a current owner, hold on as he’ll be valuable round 13 bye coverage, but you can’t be buying now.
Isaiya Katoa | HFB|5/8 ($314,600 | DOL) - 47 points
What a game! The equal best comeback the NRL has ever seen, and this young man played a key role in getting there. Katoa finished the game against the Titans on 65 points, but has since ‘downdated’ to 47 points which is still a great result for those who held on hoping for a few more rises and round 13 coverage. Two forced dropouts, another try assist, a try contribution which should really be a try assist given the work he did in the lead-up and taking the line on more and more each game. The 47 points should kick Katoa up to around $330,000 with a BE of 15(ish) coming into a friendly matchup against the Raiders.
VERDICT: HOLD. If you can rob a bank and get up to Cody Walker or Dylan Brown I think it’s worth doing, but other than that it’s a hold through to round 14 or 15.
LISTEN TO OUR KFC SUPERCOACH PODCAST!!!!
Haze Dunster | CTW ($234,800 | PAR) - DROPPED
Cheapie Bible called ‘TRAP’ on Dunster last week despite being named to start on the wing, with Bailey Simonsson lurking on the extended bench. Dunster was dropped an hour before kickoff, so that was the right call. Simonsson did suffer a concussion mid-game though, so that’s something to watch this week. Even still, knowing this spot is NOT Dunster’s for any length of time barring serious injuries, he’s a hard avoid.
VERDICT: TRAP.
Jacob Host | 2RF ($392,600 | STH) - 8 points
Ugh, what a brutal turn of events for KFC SuperCoaches hoping they had the perfect low-cost 70-80 minute left edge backrower for the high scoring Rabbitohs. After a few big games, the watch was on the return of Jai Arrow… And our worst fears were recognised. Against the Panthers, Host was taken off for Tom Burgess in the 17th minute, then only returned to the game in the 71st minute for Jed Cartwright to close out the game with 8 points in 25 minutes. Coming into the week, Host’s BE was -8, so he’ll make a little cash but it will then come to a screaming holt, leaving owners with a BIG decision to make. We’re now four rounds from Host providing such important bye coverage (Cam Murray and potentially a few others absent with Origin means likely big minutes), but between now and then Host may drop $150k.
VERDICT: SELL. You could hold one more week to be sure, but I would move to a bye coverage gun like Tohu Harris or Shaun Lane if you can.
BON VOYAGE
Paul Alamoti | CTW ($351,900 | BUL) - 26 points
Another low score and another likely $30,000 price drop with an impending high BE of around 70. The Bulldogs’ injury woes, particularly on Alamoti’s left edge have stifled any long term hopes KFC SuperCoaches had. But it’s most definitely time to appreciate what we got, take the money and sell to a Jarrod Croker who has a low BE, coverage of round 13 bye and start that cheapie cycle all over again.
VERDICT: SELL.
Soni Luke | HOK ($276,300 | PTH) - 23 points
My hand is up, I got this one wrong and it really sucks. It’s almost like deja vu with Spencer Leniu last season, we know the PPM and upside is tantalising and think coach Ivan Cleary can’t possibly ignore it… But the Panthers are so good that it doesn’t need to happen. Luke scored 23 points in 32 minutes and had only one run. This role really is sucking the life out of him, and the KFC SuperCoach scores! It’s time to go, STAT.
VERDICT: SELL. Luke to Granville is on for me.
There you have it! Have we missed anyone?
Be sure to tweet us what you think @copes9 and @SuperCoachNRL. Good luck this week!
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Originally published as NRL SuperCoach Cheapie Bible: Trent Copeland’s verdict on round 9 bargain buys
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