NRL Shutdown: Who are the KFC SuperCoach NRL winners and losers?
In these troubled times it may seem trite to identify winners from the coronavirus pandemic causing so much pain to the NRL family but we could all use a distraction from real life sometimes and so let’s get to it.
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Rugby league is on hold thanks to the coronavirus pandemic. But normal life will resume one day, and when it does there will be significant impacts to the KFC SuperCoach NRL landscape.
With many players having time to rehab injuries the teams that run out for round three on the 2020 NRL season will look quite different from those that played in round two and change brings opportunity for some and spells danger for others.
We look at the major winners and losers below.
BRISBANE BRONCOS
Matt Lodge is the biggest beneficiary from the break in the season at Brisbane. The Broncos enforcer suffered a partial tear of his ACL in the pre-season and our very own NRL Physio reported that the front row enforcer has made solid progress in his rehabilitation which could see him return to the field in 5-9 weeks. The Brisbane pack will receive a boost sooner than that with Alex Glenn (expected to have been ready for return at regular scheduling of round three) sure to be back and Joe Ofahengaue having served his two-week suspension.
Thomas Flegler is obviously going to be the big loser when Lodge returns, as he would move to the bench when that happens. Flegler has been superb in the opening two rounds averaging 63PPG (47 in base alone) in 54MPG but his value as a round three buy will hinge very much on how long the season is suspended for and how well Lodge heals.
Even before Lodge returns, Joe O’s availability will likely see a reduction of minutes for Flegler which is the only knock I would put on him as a round three buy.
Ofahengaue will also put pressure on current No.13 Patrick Carrigan. But it is very hard to see Brisbane coach Anthony Seibold dropping Carrigan (who has captained the side in Glenn’s absence and averaged 59PPG in 68MPG) to the bench. My tip is it’s a bench spot for Ofahengaue where he will pick up all of the 27MPG that Rhys Kennedy is averaging to which he’ll add a few poached from both Flegler and Carrigan. Glenn’s return will see Jamil Hopoate slip to the bench.
And our last loser is of course Tevita Pangai Jr. The competition’s suspension, and therefore I presume truncation, means TPJ will miss a greater proportion of the season thanks to his Rd 1 brain fade as he will have three more games to serve on his ban when play does resume.
CANBERRA RAIDERS
The shutdown comes at a perfect time for English import John Bateman. The Raiders second-rower was an absolute gun in 2019 (averaging 72PPG and 78MPG) and was locked into many a team until he was forced to have shoulder surgery to repair a long running niggle late in the off-season. Scheduled to return in round six, a shutdown which sees the competition resume in late May/early June should see Bateman, a notoriously quick healer, ready to go when footy starts again.
Bateman’s return is bad news for the likes of Joe Tapine, Corey Horsburgh and Emre Guler. Tapine has been filling Bateman’s shoes at second row and while he has been good (50PPG in 73MPG) he has not been great and if I were an owner I would be cutting him before Bateman’s return.
When the Englishman is available the best result for Tapine would be to win the starting lock job that Horsburgh has filled for the opening two rounds. However, Horsburgh has been superb both in real life and in terms of KFC SuperCoach NRL in the opening fortnight averaging 1PPM and 57MPG. My money is on Tapine being forced to the bench where he will eat into the bench minutes of the likes of cheapie revelation Guler.
Guler is averaging 69PPG over the opening two weeks and while his 94-point game in round one (which came in 45 minutes with a try and try assist, linebreak and linebreak assist) is the headline, as an owner I would have been more excited by his 44 points in pure base (from 50 minutes) in round two. The Tapine shuffle, and Ryan Sutton’s return from suspension (named on an extended bench in round two), is bound to impact Guler’s minutes and so I would not be buying into the cheapie prior to the resumption of play no matter how low his BE is right now.
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA
Nobody in NRL-land is enjoying this shutdown, but I’d wager the first fans to see any sort of silver lining to it were St George supporters. Captain Cameron McInnes was underdone heading into the trials after breaking his leg late in 2019, and then he went and suffered an MCL injury in the last match of the NRL Nines. McInnes was pencilled in to return in round three, but the season delay will give him plenty of time to regain full fitness before doing so. McInnes is a proven gun of KFC SuperCoach NRL and while I seriously doubt anyone will be jumping on him ahead of his debut, plenty will be watching to see how he handles his return to the game – especially with his handy HOK/2RF dual-position eligibility.
Korbin Sims is another injured Dragon who will be back when the footy is back. Sims is not SC relevant, nor is the bench player he will likely supplant in Jacob Host, but I thought I would throw him in for completeness.
WESTS TIGERS
A break in the season comes at the perfect time for the Wests Tigers as it gives halfback Luke Brooks a chance to recover from his hamstring injury and new recruit Harry Grant (hooker) a chance to form some degree of combination with the halves. Both those things are bad news for popular cheapie Billy Walters. Walters made a fast start to 2019 playing 80 minutes in both games and mixing his time between hooker and halfback and while there is little doubt Walters will still have a role to play it will be a diminished one when Brooks and Grant are available for selection.
Grant was one of the most hyped cheapies of the pre-season and if he gets solid game time at the Tigers he should definitely be on your radar – hopefully we have enough time for Blayke Brailey to appreciate in price before making the trade.
Skipper Moses Mbye was scheduled to begin his season in round three and the shutdown will ensure that he is fully recovered from a knee injury picked up in a trial match against the Warriors. Mbye is a bit of a utility and can play anywhere from fullback to centre, halves or hooker. Provided Brooks is fit the halves are covered, provided Grant is fit so is hooker. This leaves centre or fullback for Mbye and so any one of Adam Doueihi, Corey Thompson or (less likely) Joseph Leilua, could be losers here. Utility Josh Reynolds will also likely see a cut in game time.
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
The break in the season saw the New Zealand Warriors head home after deciding to stay in Australia to play round two. Should they return to Australia when the season resumes, there will be SuperCoach consequences galore with the break in the season giving the depleted Warriors the chance to get some serious cattle back including forwards Jazz Tevaga, Josh Curran and Agnatius Paasi.
Curran was the rookie edge-second rower who was tipped to play solid minutes after an impressive pre-season and his absence opened the door for Eliesa Katoa, a door that Katoa absolutely kicked down averaging 58MPG and 51 PPG (44 in base) in the opening fortnight. So impressive has Katoa been that it is hard to see the Warriors dropping him from the team for Curran, but some reduction in minutes played is likely.
Tevaga falls into the Cam McInnes category for me, a player I seriously eyed off before his injury and would be hoping is eased back once play resumes making him a trade-up target for a fattened cow.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
The biggest winner at the Knights is not a player who will return form injury, but rather one who will cement a starting role as a result of the injury that befell Jayden Brailey in round two. The Knights reported that Brailey injured his ACL in the match against the Tigers and will require surgery – surgery that may be delayed due to the current strain being felt by the hospital system. The injury opens the door for Connor Watson to move from being a supersub off the bench to playing 80 minutes at hooker and that is huge for KFC SuperCoach NRL. Watson started seven games at hooker for the Knights in 2019 and scored 91, 70, 55, 75, 82, 117 and 24 (he spent 10 in the bin in that game) averaging 73PPG (51 in base) and 74MPG. Available at hooker and 5/8, Watson will come straight into my team when the season resumes.
Elsewhere the break gives youngsters Bradman Best (foot) and Phoenix Crossland (groin) time to recover from their injuries. Best is the most likely winner with the hulking youngster a decent chance to come straight back in to the starting side though both Enari Tuala and Gehamat Shibasaki have acquitted themselves well at centre so the move is not guaranteed. Crossland was very good in the pre-season, but Kurt Mann has done everything asked of him by the Knights and I do not expect the youngster to win a starting job even once fit.
PENRITH PANTHERS
Regular fullback Dylan Edwards will return for the Panthers once the footy returns and the most obvious loser is cheapie Caleb Aekins who has been only fair filling the role. Edwards’ return also impacts Stephen Crichton who has been very impressive when being injected late in the game and would have been pushing for the starting fullback job.
New recruit Kurt Capewell should be fully recovered from his quad strain and will put some pressure on the minutes rotation in a Penrith backrow that is already pretty packed. Mitch Kenny (elbow) should also be fully fit and SuperCoaches will not want to see his name on the bench for Penrith as it would spell an end to the 80-minute Api Koroisau experience so many of us are enjoying. That said, Koroisau has been superb for Penrith so far and I would imagine coach Ivan Cleary will ride with him for the full 80 for as long as he can.
CRONULLA SHARKS
Briton Nikora missed round two due to a minor knee complaint and his absence opened the door for pre-season darling Billy Magoulias to play his first game of the season. Magoulias showed just why he had been in so many teams early with 64 points (49 in base) in 47 minutes but Nikora’s return will put an end to the cheapie’s run before it even really begins.
Another cheapie on the chopping block is fill-in fullback Will Kennedy who has averaged an impressive 44.5PPG in the opening two rounds but will likely be left right out upon resumption with Matt Moylan returning to the team.
Originally published as NRL Shutdown: Who are the KFC SuperCoach NRL winners and losers?
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