KFC SuperCoach NRL teams analysis Round 14

No Cameron Munster, Tevita Pangai Jnr, Billy Walters, Cameron Smith, Harry Grant or Bradman Best. Just another week in fantasy land.

KFC SuperCoach NRL editor Tom Sangster runs the rule over this week’s teams.

WINNERS

* Ryan Matterson – Confirmed to return from concussion in a huge boost for the 35,500 who held — and considerable blow for the 12,000 who sold over the last fortnight. Still sits in the top 10 for average despite that ugly score of eight in Round 11.

* Martin Taupau – Named for the Sea Eagles despite a concussion sustained via a cynical shot by the game’s top lunatic Jack Hetherington. Kapow is on a tear at the moment, averaging 69.8 in his last five games (including last week’s injury-affected score) after an injury-riddled start to the year.

* Cameron McInnes – By far the most popular replacement for Harry Grant and rightly so. McInnes has retained his mantle as the top base stat player in KFC SuperCoach (66 base points per game) and has the second highest average (76.3) of any hooker behind Cameron Smith (79.7). Corey Norman’s return means Ben Hunt moves to hooker and allows McInnes to play the full game at lock — his best position for KFC SuperCoach.

* Daniel Saifiti – The breakout early-season prop returns after a four week absence. Still has the second highest average (69.6) of any FRF behind Payne Haas (74.3), but the big BE of 88 makes him a watch and wait.

Cameron Munster is set to miss 2-3 weeks with a knee injury. Picture: Mark Evans

LOSERS

* Cameron Munster – Out for 2-3 weeks with a knee injury and therefore the third most sold player. Shaun Johnson is by far the most popular replacement, but Munster is not an automatic sell if you can cover with Jarome Luai or George Williams, who both have good match-ups over the next fortnight.

* Cameron Smith – Will miss another week with a shoulder injury but should be back next round. Harry Grant is a more pressing sell.

* Tevita Pangai – Sent into 14-day isolation for a COVID breach, for which he is set to be sacked. Fifth most sold player.

* Billy Walters – Out for the season after a graphic knee injury, tearing both his ACL and MCL. Sixth most sold player after doing a great job in making $126,000.

* Angus Crichton – The mail was strong that the top-averaging backrower in KFC SuperCoach would return after three weeks out with a knee injury. However, Rotation Robinson has given his star backrower another week. Crichton sits in “Super POD” range at four per cent ownership and will be a serious buy when he returns, even with the big BE (115). Add him to your watchlist for next week when the Roosters have the Tigers and Broncos in successive rounds.

* Harry Grant and Bradman Best – The two most sold players again this week. Grant will miss another three weeks with a knee injury. Best will miss another five weeks — and possibly the rest of the season — with an ankle injury. Both have been KFC SuperCoach superstars this year, making $419,000 (Grant) and $217,000 (Best).

Nasty injury mechanism for Billy Walters, contact from defender caused significant medial collapse of left knee. Brings concern for MCL sprain/lateral impact injury (bone bruise/tibial plateau). Injury to ACL also at risk (think McCullough 2017), really hope it’s avoided here pic.twitter.com/SOoPp0f22x

— NRL PHYSIO (@nrlphysio) August 8, 2020

ROOSTERS

Teams comment: In a team as noteworthy for who is not in, it as who is, the Roosters welcome back Josh Morris for the clash against the Storm. Morris’ return sees Mitch Aubusson start at second row. Nat Butcher reverts from the starting team to the interchange bench which sees Max Bailey slide to the reserves. However, still no Boyd Cordner, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Brett Morris or Angus Crichton and Kyle Flanagan is still in the reserves.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: James Tedesco remains the most popular captain but the percentage (19.9 per cent) has dropped considerably after a 47 on the weekend (worst score since Round 1), coupled with a tough match-up against the Storm this week. Sio Siua Taukeiaho was in beast mode last week, playing the full 80 minutes, running for over 300m and kicking goals for 92 KFC SuperCoach points.

With Angus Crichton (knee), Boyd Cordner (concussion) and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (calf) out again this week, expect big minutes for TKO once again. But don’t rush to buy as the cavalry will return soon and Rotation Robinson will likely ease him through a few weeks. See Crichton analysis above.

STORM

Teams comment: The Storm will be without both Camerons with Smith (shoulder) not ready to return despite missing last week and Munster (knee) injuring himself against the Bulldogs in round 13. Ryley Jacks comes into the halves to replace Munster. Fullback Ryan Papnhuyzen returns after being rested last week which sees Nicho Hynes revert to the interchange bench. Dale Finucane returns to the team after being rested shifting Tino Faasuamaleaui to the interchange and Chris Lewis drops to the reserves.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Ryan Papenhuyzen is a key inclusion for the 16 per cent who still own him after being rested last week. However, a trade to a red-hot Kalyn Ponga costs just a tick over $30,000 and Papenhuyzen is therefore the 11th most sold. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui could surge over the $600,000 mark this week after a strong 71 minute performance. He’ll be far too expensive next year at the Titans to even consider.

Like Papenhuyzen before him, Nicho Hynes will be a KFC SuperCoach weapon at some stage in his career. Mainly used as a bench utility this year, Hynes stepped up to 80 minutes in the absence of Papenhuyzen on the weekend and promptly banged out 102, even kicking goals when Munster went off. See Cameron Smith and Cameron Munster analysis above.

FULL TEAMS: Matto back but host of stars ruled out

10 THINGS: Knights finally find secret to unlocking Ponga

CASUALTY WARD: Manly crisis threatens finals hopes

WARRIORS

Teams comment: Loanee Jack Hetherington (suspended) is out and his spot at prop is taken by Lachlan Burr. Isaiah Papali’i comes on to the interchange bench in place of Burr.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: It’s taken me a loooong time to realise it, but I’m finally on board with Tohu Harris. Until now, there’s always been an excuse. Will he play edge? Will he play middle? How will Jazz Tevaga’s return change his role/minutes? But in short, none of this is relevant because no matter where he plays or who’s in the team beside him, Tohu bangs out huge scores with metronomic consistency. He has the 10th most points of any player this year (including the equal best pure base alongside McInnes), yet is owned by just 6.3 per cent. I’ll have some of that.

Of course, the aforementioned Tevaga is a solid alternative to Harris for $70,000 cheaper and even more of a POD (4.3 per cent). However, his minutes remain an issue at just 49.5 per game since his return from injury. The PPM is off the charts at a barely believable 1.39, but history shows that workrate is almost certainly unsustainable.

PANTHERS

Teams comment: No changes from last week’s team. However, Penrith have named fullback Dylan Edwards on an extended bench for Friday’s match against the Warriors. Edwards has missed the last few weeks with a hamstring injury but may slot in as a replacement for Caleb Aekins as the Panthers chase their eighth straight win.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: The Panthers are in amazing form in both NRL and KFC SuperCoach. They are a very relevant SC team with seven players over 10 per cent ownership (the most of any side), but there’s not much to update apart from the obvious – Isaah Yeo and Nathan Cleary are musts, Jarome Luai should be cashed in soon (although he also provides adequate cover for Munster over the next fortnight), and Stephen Crichton and Josh Mansour continue to dominate on the left.

EELS

Teams comment: Rejoice SuperCoaches, Ryan Matterson is back after missing two weeks due to the concussion suffered in round 11 against the Wests Tigers. Matterson’s return pushes Marata Niukore to the interchange bench and Andrew Davey to the reserves.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Picking who goes large in the Parramatta spine is literally impossible. But one thing is certain: They never all go big in the same round. Last weekend was a perfect example with Dylan Brown (119) tonning up as Mitchell Moses (52) and Clint Gutherson (26) played support roles. It was a similar story the week before, although this time Moses (80) was the star, Gutherson decent (67), while Brown (36) picked up their scraps. The moral of the story? The Eels spine is too hard to predict so avoid them all.

Is this finally the week for Blake Ferguson at an outrageously cheap $310,000? It’s not as crazy as it sounds. Here’s a thought-provoking stat: Fergo’s pure base of 32 is exactly the same as David Nofoaluma’s. Obviously that changes a fair bit when we add base attack (especially tackle busts) but it goes to show Fergo still has a great workrate, he’s just scored no tries this year (literally NOOOOO tries). He’s got close on many occasions and when the drought breaks, he’ll probably score a treble. Fergy Ferg has some dream match-ups in the run home against the Dragons (this week), Warriors, Broncos and Tigers (but also has two tough games against the Storm and Panthers). See Ryan Matterson analysis above.

DRAGONS

Teams comment: Paul McGregor has handed Corey Norman an NRL-reprieve. Having dropped Norman ahead of the Dragons loss to the Roosters last Thursday night due to form, McGregor has brought Norman back into the starting squad. Norman’s return to the halves alongside rookie Adam Clune sees Ben Hunt shift from the scrumbase and back into the hooking role, with captain Cameron McInnes reverting to lock. Tristan Sailor is on the bench. Tariq Sims (shoulder), Jackson Ford (suspended) and Trent Merrin are out. Tyrell Fuimaono wins a start at second row in place of Sims while Korbin Sims and Jacob Host come onto the interchange.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Brayden Wiliame, remember him? The Dragons centre was owned by almost half of all KFC SuperCoaches at the start of the year before going down with a calf injury. He’s been named on an extended bench this week and could replace Euan Aitken, who has signed with the Warriors for next year and may fall out of favour. Wiliame may provide some crucial extra cash at the back end of the year, or he could become an AE nightmare, or both.

Tristan Sailor may emerge as a decent downgrade option over the final seven rounds. The son of Wendell has looked likely in two games off the bench this year. And with the Dragons out of finals contention, there’s mail he’ll up his minutes considerably over the final rounds (even with Corey Norman back in the side this week). Sailor has scored at a PPM of 1.11 this year and as Peter Sterling said in commentary “he just has something about him”. That said, the trade is hardly urgent given uncertainty over his role, a tough match-up against the Eels and BE of 23. One for the watchlist. See Cameron McInnes analysis above.

SHARKS

Teams comment: Siosifa Talakai rides again! The Cronulla cult hero has retained his starting second-row role with Briton Nikora once again in the reserves. Scott Sorensen is on the interchange bench with Toby Rudolf named to start. Don’t be surprised to see Rudolf swap with Sorensen at game time, or possibly Jack Williams who comes on to the interchange this week in place of Teig Wilton.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Shaun Johnson is the third most purchased player this week and by far the most popular replacement for Munster. After a rocky start to the year, Johnson has produced amazing consistency for a half. He hasn’t scored below 56 since Round 3 and his weekend 63 can be considered a win given the monsoonal conditions. He doesn’t have the best schedule from here but does have the Titans this week (although he also has top eight sides the Panthers, Knights, Roosters and Raiders in the run home).

TITANS

Teams comment: Winners are grinners on the Gold Coast with no changes to the side that walloped the Cowboys last week.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Finally we have a Titans player of KFC SuperCoach relevance — AJ Brimson. In just his second game back from a serious back injury, Brimson hammered out 112 in a man-of-the-match performance against the Cowboys. KFC SuperCoach Stats predicts a $70,000 rise in the next two weeks, so a quick downgrade-and-buy-back from Munster makes sense, at least on face value. However, the trade doesn’t come without risk given the Titans take on two top eight sides over the next fortnight (Sharks and Raiders), while his 18 point showing against the Roosters two weeks ago is still fresh in the memory bank.

WINNERS AND LOSERS 🎬

Dominated by the "losers" section yet again after another tough teams day, explains @TomSangsterSC. pic.twitter.com/M77U6Tvn38

— SuperCoach NRL (@SuperCoachNRL) August 11, 2020

COWBOYS

Teams comment: Scott Drinkwater makes a return from injury at fullback, pushing Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to the wing and Justin O’Neill out of the side. John Asiata (knee) returns on the bench in place of Tom Gilbert.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Jason Taumalolo will be the most popular captain in KFC SuperCoach this week. As it currently stands, Tedesco is slightly ahead (19.9 to 16.9 per cent) but expect them to switch places by the weekend given Teddy’s poor (for him) run of scores, tough match-up against the Storm and the fact he’s playing the first game of the round.

Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has started leaking cash ($16,900 last week with another $17,400 to come this week) and he’s therefore the fourth most sold player. Overdue to be cashed in.

RABBITOHS

Teams comment: Jaydn Su’A (suspension) returns in the back row, bumping Liam Knight to the bench and Jack Johns to 18th man. Latrell Mitchell should be fit to play despite managing a leg injury.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Damien Cook has been incredibly disappointing of late, averaging 47.7 over the last three rounds including flops in so-called “dream” match-ups against the Dragons and Broncos. He has another two decent match-ups to come against the Cowboys and Sea Eagles, but looms as a sell from there due to tough games against the Eels and Storm. Unfortunately though, on current form he’ll drop to almost $500,000 by then — a $200,000 drop in a month — and the trade up to Cameron Smith will cost plenty.

Raiders

Teams comment: No changes, with hooker Siliva Havili (triceps) named and expected to play. John Bateman is free to play after being cleared by the match review committee.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Josh Papalii is a great replacement for Pangai or even Grant (with the right duals like McInnes or Jazz Hands). Papalii has the third most points of any prop but sits in relative POD range at 15.1 per cent ownership. The Raiders are a team to target given their dream schedule over the next three rounds — Broncos, Titans and Bulldogs. You’d back Big Papa for some meat against that opposition. Likewise, John Bateman remains a great target. He managed 56 in pure base against a red-hot Panthers, but should up those stats considerably against upcoming opposition.

BRONCOS

Teams comment: Tevita Pangai Jnr is out due to a COVID breach, for which he is expected to be sacked. Ben Te’o comes into the starting back row with Jordan Riki named for his NRL debut on the bench. Cory Paix comes onto the interchange in place of Issac Luke.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Patrick Carrigan is the 12th most sold player after a rather lacklustre 42. However, he missed a fair chunk of time due to concussion so he definitely had an excuse. Tevita Pangai’s absence should free up more minutes for Carrigan going forward and his dual position flexibility is crucial even if he’s not in your top 17 every week. Hold. See Pangai analysis above. Sangster’s Paradise will sell for Tohu Harris.

Ronaldo Mulitalo makes a splash with this barely believable put-down! 😲😲😲 pic.twitter.com/5FSHuZDvYO

— SuperCoach NRL (@SuperCoachNRL) August 10, 2020

KNIGHTS

Teams comment: Origin prop Daniel Saifiti (knee) is a key inclusion at prop. Brother Jacob reverts to the bench with Brodie Jones dropping out. Starford To’a retains his wing spot after being cleared of a COVID breach.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Kalyn Ponga is the second most purchased player after an all-time great score of 172. He has a dream schedule to finish the season with the Knights playing just two top eight teams in the remaining seven rounds. But the biggest key is the recruitment of Blake Green, who steered the ship well in his first game for the Knights and allowed Ponga to do Ponga things. See Bradman Best analysis above.

SEA EAGLES

Teams comment: Prop Martin Taupau has been named despite failing a concussion test last week and will need to pass protocol. But his front row partner Addin Fonua-Blake (PCL) is out for a month, replaced by Taniela Paseka in the starting side. Back rowers Curtis Sironen (knee) and Joel Thompson (ankle) return, pushing Haumole Olakau’atu and Corey Waddell to the interchange. Brad Parker (concussion) returns, replacing Tevita Funa at centre.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: Jake Trbojevic is on fire and serious replacement for Pangai. He is rocking a three round average 85 and his days of playing as a second halfback may be over after averaging 18 runs in last two weeks.

Repeating from last week, Tommy Turbo will be the POD of PODs when he returns from injury, with the Sea Eagles taking on the Tigers, Bulldogs, Titans and Warriors over the final month. Clear the decks. See Martin Taupau analysis above

WESTS TIGERS

Teams comment: Jacob Liddle returns at hooker almost 12 months to the day since the 23-year-old ruptured his ACL/LCL/MCL. After struggling at No. 9 last week, Moses Mbye returns to centre with Tommy Talau shifting to the wing and Asu Kepaoa out. Billy Walters is out after scans revealed a torn MCL and ACL, replaced by Josh Reynolds on the bench. Luke Garner is recalled in the back row with Chris Lawrence dropping to the bench and Shawn Blore out. Alex Twal (sternum) again misses the team sheet.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: David Nofoaluma sits in the most purchased list once again. He still scored 58 points last week despite the Tigers getting absolutely hammered by Knights. However, expect mid-50s to be status quo for Nofo in the run home given his horror schedule, with the Tigers playing five top eight teams in the final seven weeks. There’s a genuine chance he doesn’t score another try this season, with this week’s match-up against the Bulldogs one of his final chances to go large. See Billy Walters and Harry Grant analysis above.

BULLDOGS

Teams comment: Young gun Jake Averillo (hip) is out, replaced by Kerrod Holland at centre. Lachlan Lewis (suspension) is replaced at halfback by Jack Cogger.

KFC SuperCoach analysis: With Jake Averillo out, there’s is literally no player of KFC SuperCoach interest at the Bulldogs.

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach NRL teams analysis Round 14