KFC SuperCoach NRL No-Go Zone: The biggest mistakes on popular players
We raised question marks about these popular early pre-season KFC SuperCoach NRL picks despite, for some issues still remain – for others we’ve changed our tune.
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When we looked through the player ownership rate in late January there were a number of names that seemed to be just plain wrong.
There were also a number that I suggested might be problematic.
With the benefit of some pre-season form to consider, the impact of injuries to weigh up and far more SuperCoach teams being selected we thought it apt to go back and look at our earlier calls as well as current ownership rates to see if holes can be pecked in some recent popular picks.
JACK HOWARTH $200,800 2RF/CTW (JANUARY OWNERSHIP 36%/FEBRUARY OWNERSHIP 26%)
What we said in January
Cons: Seems to be somewhat on the outer at club
Pros: Has a five year deal with the Storm so you’d think they’ve got to play him at some point, player movement creates opportunity.
Analysis: Tricky one here. Howarth’s ability has been on display for years with Australian Schoolboys honours and U18 and U19 Maroons honours. Picked up by many as a cheapie stash in 2022, Howarth instead plied his wares in the QCup spending time as both a starting centre and edge forward.
The Storm are looking for two fresh edge forwards after the departure of Kenny Bromwich and Felise Kaufusi, but fresh recruits in Tariq Sims, Eliesa Katoa and Joe Chan are probably ahead of Howarth on the depth chart. He could slot in at centre but you’d think Justin Olam, Marion Seve and the returning Reimis Smith are all ahead of him. I suppose there’s a chance he nabs the utility reserve spot, but even if he does that position is SuperCoach poison.
What we say now
Nothing changed here – still a no-go zone. Thankfully it seems people are twigging to the fact with Howarth’s ownership rate dropping to 26% at the time of writing.
Howarth was nowhere to be seen on the Storm team lists for either pre-season trial. He’s not injured, rather he’s playing for the Sunshine Coast Falcons in QCup trials.
UPDATED VERDICT: Hard pass.
ALOFIANA KHAN-PEREIRA $200,800 CTW (JANUARY OWNERSHIP 29%/FEBRUARY OWNERSHIP 42.4%)
What we said in January
Cons: Is he just holding a spot until Brian Kelly’s suspension is over?
Pros: He’s quick
Analysis: Tipped to start on an edge for the Titans in round one, Khan-Pereira would come into the team full of confidence after an outstanding 2022 for the Bears in which he scored 25 tries from just 19 games. However, you’d think Brian Kelly comes straight back into the side once available (Kelly is suspended until round four) and I expect that would put a lot of pressure on Khan Pereira to retain his spot. It’s hard to be too critical of any cheapie starting in round one, but it looks like we’ll have plenty of those in the CTW this year (fingers crossed) so I’d look elsewhere if I could.
What we say now
I undersold Khan-Pereira, he’s not just quick. He’s quick AND good. The youngster bagged two tries in the first trial of the season against the Broncos and then four tries against the Dolphins in the second hitout. The market has responded accordingly and AKP’s ownership is now at 42.4% and climbing. The job security issues remain, but if he keeps scoring tries surely the coach can’t sit him down...
UPDATED VERDICT: Mea Culpa – we got it wrong.
TOM TRBOJEVIC $577,700 FLB (JANUARY OWNERSHIP 28%/FEBRUARY OWNERSHIP 34.9%)
What we said in January
Cons: Injury history, lack of match time, early season bye and draw
Pros: It’s Tommy T, no player goes bigger more often and the price is nice
Analysis: Five hamstring injuries since 2019, no games since he injured his shoulder in round 11 2022 and unlikely to play a pre-season trial – there are plenty of reasons to be cautious when it comes to buying Tom Trbojevic ahead of round one. On top of all that the Sea Eagles have a bye in round two and then a draw which features four very tough opponents (Eels, Rabbitohs, Panthers and Storm) in their five games from round three to seven. That’s a whole lot of negatives for a guy with almost 30% ownership. So how about something positive, a whole lot of positive – 2,149 points at 143PPG. That was Trbojevic’s record-breaking 2021 season and it is exactly that promise that has so many SuperCoaches, including my esteemed colleague Tom Sangster, willing to take the risk in 2023. Not me though, at least not yet.
What we say now
Since January the updates around Tom Trbojevic’s fitness have been encouraging with the Manly star firming to play in the opening round of the season. The promising injury updates, fantastic price and history of huge scores has me revisiting my analysis here.
UPDATED VERDICT: The positive rehab news has me leaning to a Buy call now – be nice to see some footage of the big man striding out though.
VAL HOLMES $724,600 CTW (JANUARY OWNERSHIP 21%/FEBRUARY OWNERSHIP 29.2%), BRIAN TO’O $624,300 CTW (OWNERSHIP 21%/FEBRUARY OWNERSHIP 18.7%)
What we said in January
Cons: Not knocking either player, but very expensive. And was To’o 2021 an outlier?
Pros: Both have class in spades. Holmes and the Cowboys have a great early draw
Analysis: I quite like starting round one with one premium CTW to anchor the position and truth be told I’d not be too gutted if I had either of these players. BUT my job is to find negatives here so...I would say Holmes’ asking price is pretty steep and while I can talk myself into a premium CTW in the low 600s, spending low 700s on a CTW when your salary cap is still low seems the actions of a spendthrift.
To’o’s price is more approachable, but, and this feels heretical to even write, is there a chance that Bizza’s 2021 season in which he averaged 84PPG (18 games) was an outlier. In 2019 To’o averaged 57PPG (15 games), 2020 he averaged 59PPG (13 games) and in 2022 59PPG (15 games). To’o rips in like few other wingers and that clearly comes with a price in terms of games missed. But it’s a price I would pay if he could repeat his 84PPG. Thing is in 2021 To’o was on the left edge for the Panthers and that is the more productive edge. Last year it was back to the right and that’s where he’s expected to line up in 2023 so it’s a no from me. Sorry Bizz.
What we say now
As round one nears I’m warming to both premium centres, albeit for different reasons. Holmes’ price is still a barrier. But the emergence of quality cheapies who appear assured of not just playing in round one but playing well (ie J’maine Hopgood, Josh Schuster, Paul Alamoti, Sunia Turuva) is helping to free up enough cash to make the barrier look like it can be surmounted.
The injury to Taylan May (details) has opened the selection door for aforementioned cheapie Sunia Turuva and also has the potential to send To’o back to the lethal left edge of the Panthers. I don’t think the switch of edges (should it occur) is a magic key for To’o to return to his dizzy heights of 2021 – but it will help.
UPDATED VERDICT: The quality and quantity of cheapies has me thinking Holmes is more ‘doable’ I’m still not sure about To’o but a move to the left makes his price less of an impediment.
ISAIYA KATOA $216,100 HFB|5/8 (JANUARY OWNERSHIP 21%/FEBRUARY OWNERSHIP 24.5%)
What we said in January
Cons: Unlikely to start round one
Pros: The kid can play
Analysis: This is not a knock on Katoa because barring injury I expect this guy to have a long and illustrious career in the NRL. Thing is I’m not sure he will start come round one, rather I expect Dolphins coach Wayne Bennett to stick with the more mature Sean O’Sullivan to partner Anthony Milford early in 2022 (predicted round one teams here). Profiles as a guy you pick up when he starts, if you start with him (and already have Schuster at 5/8 or 2RF) you will struggle to find another half to replace at the price.
What we say now
Nothing has really changed. Milford was not super exciting in the pre-season action, Katoa arguably outplayed him. But, it still seems odds on that Bennett will start Milford in the NRL and Katoa in the QCup.
UPDATED VERDICT: Unchanged: Until we see Katoa’s name on the starting team list there is no reason to have him in your team.
SHAWN BLORE $234,800 2RF (JANUARY OWNERSHIP 17%/FEBRUARY OWNERSHIP 11.1%)
What we said in January
Cons: Tigers recruitment leaves him fighting for a bench spot.
Pros: Impressed when starting on an edge for the Tigers...in 2021.
Analysis: Stunned by the ownership rates here. Granted, Blore looked good when he nabbed a starting role at the Tigers in 2021 averaging 47PPG from his six starts. That average would be priced around $490-500K in 2023 and so you might think Blore is a bargain at less than half that price. However, the Tigers added edge forwards Isaiah Papali’I and John Bateman in the off-season and, barring injury, they will start and play big minutes leaving Blore with a bench impact role – that’s not good for SC.
What we say now
Visa delays meant John Bateman missed the entire pre-season. That boosts Blore’s chances of playing in round one. However, it has to be noted that even with Bateman in the UK it was Alex Seyfarth not Blore who started on an edge for the Tigers in their final pre-season game.
UPDATED VERDICT: Still a pass for me
IZAAC THOMPSON $336,700 CTW (JANUARY OWNERSHIP 13%/FEBRUARY OWNERSHIP 15.3%)
What we said in January
Cons: Two games, two tries, inflated price
Pros: Should start round one
Analysis: Taane Milne’s suspension leaves the door ajar for Thompson to start in round one. Thing is, will he still be there in round two when Milne is available again? Also having scored a try in each of the two games he played in 2022, Thompson is priced well above bottom dollar. Too much to pay with Milne lurking.
What we say now
Looked fine in the Charity Shield.
UPDATED VERDICT: Still a pass for me
MITCH KENNY $310,200 HOK (JANUARY OWNERSHIP 11%/FEBRUARY OWNERSHIP 7.7%)
What we said in January
Cons: Scores as a starter not that exciting
Pros: Opportunity knocks after first-choice hooker departs, should make $150K albeit slowly
Analysis: Api Koroisau’s decision to chase dollars over premierships at the Wests Tigers opens the door for Mitch Kenny to play big minutes as the starting hooker at the Panthers. Thing is, Kenny is a willing defender and good at getting the ball clear of the ruck – by hand not foot. Good attributes for the Panthers, but the absence of a running game really limits his SuperCoach appeal.
In the 14 games Kenny played 55+ minutes in 2021/22 he averaged 45PPG. That’s more $470K price areas than $310K, so Kenny IS a good buy in that regard, but that money will be made slowly not in a rush. And for my team structure I prefer one gun (Harry Grant) and the other slot in my team goes to Brandon Smith who I expect to make more money than Kenny while producing much better scores.
What we say now
Was solid in the World Club Challenge playing 65 minutes and making almost 50 tackles. UPDATED VERDICT: Does not offer much in attack and still a pass from me.
JEREMIAH NANAI $659,400 2RF (JANUARY OWNERSHIP 10%/FEBRUARY OWNERSHIP 11.3%)
What we said in January
Cons: Can he keep scoring tries?
Pros: How good was he in 2022?
Analysis: What a year for Jeremiah Nanai with Dally M Rookie of the Year and Dally M Second-Rower of the Year honours to go along with Maroons and Kangaroos caps. I struggle to see the value for round one though. Nanai averaged 62.7PPG in 2022. Of that just 38PPG came in base and so he would need to replicate an incredible run of try scoring to hold his value. Nanai scored 17 tries in the 2022 regular season and history suggests he will struggle to do that again. A brief recap of forwards who had a big year of tries might help here. In 2019 Cameron Murray scored 12 tries; in the three seasons since he has scored five, five and four tries. In 2016 Ryan James scored 12 tries in 25 games – it took him 75 games to score another 12. Beware.
What we say now
Maybe Nanai can keep scoring tries! In his one trial of the pre-season that’s exactly what he did.
UPDATED VERDICT: I still think the scoring rate has to decline, and with it so will his price later making him a buy then not now in round one.
NEW NO-GO ZONE ENTRANTS
RAY STONE $246,900 2RF/HOK (OWNERSHIP 29.9%)
Cons: Stuck in a bit of a job share situation with the Dolphins having plenty of middle forward options.
Pros: Has a SuperCoach friendly game, loves a run and can throw an offload. Gets through plenty of work in defence
Analysis: The job share arrangement is not good for anyone at the Dolphins right now.
VERDICT: A hard no until playing plenty more minutes in the middle and that time has not come yet. Cannot understand why he is currently floating around 30% ownership rate.
VILIAMI FIFITA $200,800 2RF/FRF (OWNERSHIP 17%)
Cons: Third/fourth bench forwards are a very slow money-making burn in SuperCoach.
Pros: Was pretty impressive in the first trial and then held his spot in the ‘top-17’ in the second trial when the big names returned.
Analysis: On form and eye test could well hold onto a spot on the interchange. However, see my point re ‘cons’.
VERDICT: Bottom dollar and with handy DPP I think Fifita is on the cusp of being worth selecting – though obviously before the first TLT of the season I’m still hoping to find starters for that price (only to be disappointed).
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