Statistical breakdown: Where the grand final will be won and lost

SUNDAY will see the collision of two great teams with two distinct styles. Revealing stats highlight the key areas where the game will be won.

Michael Morgan of the Cowboys gestures to the crowd following their win over the Roosters in the NRL Preliminary Final between the Sydney Roosters and the North Queensland Cowboys at Allianz Stadium in Sydney, Saturday, September 23, 2017. (AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts) NO ARCHIVING, EDITORIAL USE ONLY

SUNDAY will see the collision of two great teams in the Storm and the Cowboys with two distinct styles.

This is what Fox Sports Stats tells us about where the game will be won and lost.

Michael Morgan produces and the Cowboys have every chance.

NO MISTAKES

1 What the Cowboys have done well this year can get them to the finish line in the grand final.

Even if their opponents are statistically the best defensive and best attacking team this year, that is.

The Cowboys may have scored 39 tries fewer than the Storm this year (88 in one more game than Melbourne needed to rack up 119) and be merely the fifth defensive team.

But if the underdogs can compete to their strengths for 80 minutes, as they did in the preliminary final, it will impact strongly what happens during the grand final.

What the Cowboys have done particularly well in attack is play out their sets, manage to not try to be anything they aren’t (ranked last in the NRL for offloads with 6.3 per game only) and thereby give Michael Morgan time and repeated opportunity to put something on.

In defence they are consistent but are notably No. 1 in the League at stopping offloads, with 8.6 conceded per game. This will be important as the Storm, while only 10th in the number of offloads this year, can scatter defences with the speed of several players when given second-phase play.

The Cowboys are peerless among NRL sides this year for getting to the last tackle, something they have done 80 per cent of the time. Melbourne are fourth in that category at 78 per cent.

Cowboys kickers, mainly Morgan, Lachlan Coote and, in the seven games he played, Johnathan Thurston, are No. 1 in forcing line dropouts with 2.1 per game. The Storm are 12th with 1.3 per game.

If the Cowboys can apply consistent pressure and make it a relatively low scoring grand final, they can win it.

Switch from left to right centre hasn’t hurt Kane Linnett. Picture: Brett Costello

RIGHT A DANGER

2 Justin O’Neill and Gavin Cooper have keys roles in making life difficult for Melbourne’s in-form right-side attacking players.

Fox Sports Stats records that O’Neill played right centre for North Queensland prior to his injury in Round 23, upon which coach Paul Green moved Kane Linnett to that side of the field.

O’Neill has played left centre in both of his two games since his return to the side, with Linnett staying at right centre.

The Storm have scored 55 tries on their right side of the field, where Cooper Cronk usually goes to work. Melbourne has scored 36 tries on their left-side, which is more fluent than North Queensland’s most productive side, their right, with 33 tries.

Notably, the first four of Melbourne’s tries in their Round 22 win in Townsville came down their right side. The first came from a scrum when Josh Addo-Carr made an extra man, the second after a reorganisation when Antonio Winterstein had to be replaced and the third and fourth came from grubbers by Billy Slater through a defensive line which had a red-alert look about it.

Cooper has the relatively inexperienced Te Maire Martin between him and left-centre O’Neill, with Antonio Winterstein on the left wing for the Cowboys.

O’Neill is highly regarded by his representative teammates despite his demotion by Queensland after this year’s Game One loss and showed his maturity by playing strongly after his second-half fumble which briefly gave the Roosters the lead last Saturday.

Human wrecking ball Jason Taumalolo

THE TAUMALOLO FACTOR

3 The Storm will back their bench, including big Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Tim Glasby, to make some hay while Jason Taumalolo is off the field either side of halftime.

Taumalolo hit the ground running in his second stint with his first carry after re-entering the fray getting Morgan field position to put on his magic pass to try scorer Linnett.

Taumalolo ran for more than 230m in each of his three finals games to date. His remarkable tallies were 234m from 22 runs against Cronulla, including eight tackle busts, 230m from 21 against Parramatta and 237m from 21 carries, including three tackle busts, against the Roosters. He has averaged 30.3 tackles in the finals, in addition.

Cowboys supporters will feel angrier than Taumalolo over his omission in favour of Paul Gallen from the Dally M team of the year which was more a reflection of blind adherence to a rule than a snub.

Originally published as Statistical breakdown: Where the grand final will be won and lost