State of Origin Danger Zone: Queensland Maroons, NSW Blues weak points exposed

AHEAD of Game One, our rugby league writers gaze into their State of Origin crystal balls to see who will win — and why. First up, we look at the Maroons and Blues’ weaknesses.

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• Kevin Walters backs Maroons X-factor to terrorise Blues

AHEAD of Game One, our rugby league writers gaze into their State of Origin crystal balls to see who will win — and why.

First up, we look at the Maroons and Blues’ weaknesses.

WHAT IS THE MAROONS’ WEAK SPOT?

PAUL CRAWLEY (The Daily Telegraph): I love Andrew McCullough as a player but he is no Cameron Smith. And ditto Ben Hunt and Cooper Cronk, Cameron Munster and Johnathan Thurston. When it came to the clutch moments Smith, Cronk and Thurston almost always found a way (except in 2014). But this year the advantage is clearly with the Blues through the kicking games, in general play and at goal, of Cleary and Maloney. Again, NSW have a clear advantage in the forwards and the halves and Damien Cook at dummy half will thrive on the back of their superior go forward.

Andrew McCullough is stepping into a huge pair of boots. Picture: AAP

PHIL ROTHFIELD (The Daily Telegraph): Too many out-of-form players, especially from the Cowboys. Forwards Gavin Cooper and Coen Hess have been ordinary all year. They got chosen despite poor form but at the same time Kevin Walters snubs Matt Scott. Josh Maguire is underdone after a six-week spell on the sidelines. I’m convinced the Queensland forward pack without Matt Gillett is their weakest in a decade. The Blues look certain to dominate them in the middle and on the edges.

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DAVID RICCIO (The Daily Telegraph): Ben Hunt. Most would view this as a strange thing to say given Hunt’s brilliant form with the Dragons. But let’s remember the shoes he has to fill in the absence of Thurston and Cronk. Let’s remember that he, too, will be the dominant general play kicker — unlike at Saints where he shares the role with Gareth Widdop.

Ben Hunt is trying to measure up against all-time greats. Picture: AAP

PETER BADEL (The Courier-Mail): Their engine room. Losing Matt Scott, Cam Smith and Nate Myles in the space of 12 months has decimated their front row and ruck control. Rookie props Dylan Napa and Jarrod Wallace face a huge task standing up to the Blues.

MIKE COLMAN (The Courier-Mail): Mal Meninga said last week that the Maroons should be looking for workhorses as much as thoroughbreds as they rebuild after the loss of the big three. If there is a question mark over their forward pack it is whether they have too many impact players and not enough metre eaters. Kevin Walters has said what a big call it was to leave Matt Scott out of the side. Queensland supporters will be hoping it isn’t a decision he comes to regret.

Queensland's omission of Matt Scott is a major gamble. Picture: Gregg Porteous

DEAN RITCHIE (The Daily Telegraph): Their pack is small and offers very little go-forward. Which forward is going to get them on the front foot? I’m tipping NSW to steamroll Queensland. Ben Hunt is injured, as is Josh McGuire. This Maroons side doesn’t excite me one iota.

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FIONA BOLLEN (The Daily Telegraph): Their back row. Felise Kaufusi and Gavin Cooper just don’t match up to Boyd Cordner and Tyson Frizell. Cordner will have a point to prove after Phil Gould poked the bear during Origin build-up. Frizell plays with a heightened intensity when in the Blues jersey. Josh McGuire is also good for a stupid penalty or two, so that could hurt the Maroons too.

Felise Kaufusi faces a challenging Origin debut. Picture: Getty Images

NICK WALSHAW (The Daily Telegraph): Given they were trying to belt seven shades from one another not so long ago, questions have to be asked about how Ben Hunt and Cameron Munster will go working together in the halves. Undoubtedly, both have been strong for St George-Illawarra and Melbourne respectively. But can they overcome their past to get it right, together, for the Maroons?

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RIKKI-LEE ARNOLD (The Courier-Mail): While Billy Slater will have a big impact this year, he is the only one left from “The Big Four”. Queensland’s spine will be under a lot of pressure to deliver and to fill the shoes of Thurston, Smith and Cronk. With Ben Hunt’s preparation also interrupted by injury, this shake-up to the team could take its toll.

MICHAEL CARAYANNIS (The Daily Telegraph): The Maroons forward pack. While much fuss has been made of the Thurston/Cronk combination being no more, their replacements in Cameron Munster and Ben Hunt are in better NRL form than that duo. The player they will miss most is Cameron Smith. The forward pack is filled with a lot of inexperience too with recent mainstays Matt Scott, Matt Gillett, and Sam Thaiday all missing. The Blues have the edge in the forward pack, but if Queensland are able to at least hold their own, the Maroons backline will reap the rewards.

MATT LOGUE (The Daily Telegraph): The pack. Dylan Napa is strong on his day, but he lacks consistency. The Maroons need the likes of Napa, Jarrod Wallace, Gavin Cooper and Josh Papalii to fire up to have any chance of victory.

Dylan Napa needs to aim up if Queensland are to get on top. Picture: AAP

PAUL MALONE (The Courier-Mail): I fully respect David Klemmer as a big-game player. Reagan Campbell-Gillard has to live (way, way) up to his stupid, repulsive remark this week that he was ready to “kill’’ some Queenslanders. So the pressure again is on the Queensland middle players. Starters Dylan Napa and Jarrod Wallace need to set the platform, with rookie Jai Arrow to adjust to the tumult of Origin football. Hooker Andrew McCullough is like a bank in defence, will provide a little variety out of dummy half and hopefully takes his chances to kick deep early in a tackle count.

NICK CAMPTON (The Daily Telegraph): Their kicking game. Ben Hunt and Cameron Munster are fine players and two worthy Origin players but neither of them are known as excellent field-position kickers. Hunt has been serviceable at best and while Munster has a mighty boot he can’t always aim correctly. If NSW pressure them and impact their ability to earn repeat sets or kick their way out of trouble it will put the Queensland forwards under tremendous pressure and play into the Blues’ hands.

There will be trouble if Cameron Munster can’t put the boot into NSW. Picture: AAP

JAMES PHELPS (The Daily Telegraph): Leadership. Queensland will struggle without Cameron Smith. Johnathan Thurston recently said he never felt like he would lose a game when he was on the field with Smith, no matter the score, or how long left. We will soon find out how the rest of the Maroons feel now he is gone. Who will they look to when they need to come up with a miracle last-minute play to win?

TRAVIS MEYN (The Courier-Mail): Queensland have a sensational backline but their forward pack is not all that imposing. A starting front row of Dylan Napa and Jarrod Wallace has a lot to prove. Gavin Cooper is lucky to be in the side, Felise Kaufusi is on debut and Josh McGuire hasn’t played in more than a month because of an ankle injury. Young guns Coen Hess and Jai Arrow are two stars of the future but are not ready to dominate in the Origin arena. The Maroons need to fire up in the engine room against a red-hot Blues forward pack.

FATIMA KDOUH (The Daily Telegraph): Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith leave a void that feels impossible to fill. No other player can control the tempo of a rugby league match the way Smith can, he can take a game by the scruff of its neck and he is the ultimate referees whisperer. The Queenslanders will miss his influence and, in general, the ability these three had to step up and find the big play when the Maroons needed it the most.

WHAT DO YOU SEE AS THE BLUES’ WEAK SPOT

PAUL CRAWLEY (The Daily Telegraph): Everyone is talking about the speed of the NSW back five but I worry about the NSW edge defence and also whether our back five will get in and do the tough yardage carries necessary out of their end. James Roberts and Latrell Mitchell can’t afford to sit back and wait for the game to go to them. They have to get in and make it happen, at both ends of the field.

James Roberts needs to do the hard yards as well as the flashy stuff. Picture: AAP

PHIL ROTHFIELD (The Daily Telegraph): I probably wouldn’t have gone with Tom Trbojevic on one wing. He’s a fullback, not a winger which has become one of the most specialised positions on a rugby league field. There is no question the Canberra Raiders’ Nick Cotric is a superior winger. I have no doubts the Maroons will try to take advantage of his lack of wing experience by sending kicks in Tommy Turbo’s direction most of the night. Hopefully he’ll prove us wrong.

DAVID RICCIO (The Daily Telegraph): The defensive deficiencies of Latrell Mitchell and James Roberts. I love them as attacking players and I can see why Fittler has selected them. But I’m on record in saying that I would’ve selected a proven representative centre in Josh Dugan; a big frame who won’t be pushed around.

Latrell Mitchell (right) will have to impose himself in defence. Picture: Brett Costello

PETER BADEL (The Courier-Mail): The backline. It is the quickest NSW back five in history but for all their speed the likes of James Roberts, Latrell Mitchell and Josh Addo-Carr could be exposed defensively. Roberts has his work cut out trying to stop Greg Inglis.

MIKE COLMAN (The Courier-Mail): James Roberts. Give him half a metre and Jimmy the Jet is gone, but how many half metres will he be getting in Origin? Roberts is an amazing sight with the ball in his hands and nothing but the tryline in front of him, but how many times is he caught out of position in defence? Latrell Mitchell would play against him every day of the week if he could. If it’s 1-1 and a decider at Suncorp GI will be licking his lips.

Greg Inglis is a massive threat to expose the Blues’ defence. Picture: Adam Head

DEAN RITCHIE (The Daily Telegraph): Inexperience. The biggest question mark is how NSW’s kids will handle the suffocating pressure of Origin football. They will have never played in a match before with such intensity and speed. Nothing can prepare a player for Origin. Some thrive on pressure, others choke. But I cannot find one personality in this NSW that looks to have a weak mindset.

FIONA BOLLEN (The Daily Telegraph): Experience. They may not have the hangovers of NSW’s long run of losing but they don’t know what’s about to hit them in the Origin arena. Thankfully they’re not being sent straight out on to Suncorp Stadium. And even though Queensland have some new faces too, there are still some of the best to pull on the jersey in their side to guide them through it.

NICK WALSHAW (The Daily Telegraph): Experience. Sure, many of these Blues have yet to be scarred by Origin loss. Which is said to be a positive. But remember Queensland’s entire Origin psyche is built on knowing what it’s like to lose over and over to NSW. And while the Maroons continually credit their success to loyalty — or being fired up by perceived acts of Blue arrogance, like the Bryan Fletcher hand grenade — in reality, they’ve won thanks to champion players who measure Origin experience in decades.

RIKKI-LEE ARNOLD (The Courier-Mail): There is no doubt NSW needed a change and Brad Fittler has named a great team, but 11 debutants in one game is a big ask. There’s a lot of inexperience in that side and, while the youth and energy could help the Blues, it could also prove to be their weak spot.

Billy Slater’s experience gives Queensland a massive advantage. Picture: AAP

MICHAEL CARAYANNIS (The Daily Telegraph): Inexperience. While much has been made of the Blues’ centre pairing and their apparent defensive flaws, Latrell Mitchell and James Roberts have missed an average of 1.42 and 1.17 tackles respectively this year, the likes of Queensland duo Will Chambers and Dane Gagai will miss three. The Blues lack big-game experience. No player has played an entire winning series and they do not have a player who has played double-digit Origin games. Queensland have the likes of Billy Slater and Greg Inglis whose combined games alone are greater than the whole Blues side.

MATT LOGUE (The Daily Telegraph): Defence in the outside backs. You can’t deny the speed of James Roberts and Latrell Mitchell, but their defence is far from perfect.

This could open the door for Maroons skipper Greg Inglis to take advantage. Queensland flyers Dane Gagai and Valentine Holmes are equally potent in attack, so the Blues must muscle up in defence.

Boyd Cordner is another Blue who faces questions in defence. Picture: Getty Images

PAUL MALONE (The Courier-Mail): The NSW left side in defence with Boyd Cordner and Latrell Mitchell. Cordner missed five tackles in his most recent State of Origin match and he will be pounded by Queensland runners, particularly opposite number Felise Kaufusi. Cordner, though a worthy representative player as he gets through his hit-ups and tackles in each big game, can be exposed in defence sometimes. Mitchell averages only 1.4 missed tackles per game for the Roosters this year but his defence will be tested thoroughly.

JAMES PHELPS (The Daily Telegraph): Selecting two of the game’s fastest and most exciting attacking players on the wing could end up being a masterstroke. It could also prove costly. Picking Josh Addo-Carr and Tom Trbojevic ahead of Blake Ferguson and Nick Cotric has been NSW’s biggest gamble. I would hate to see Maloney and Cleary being forced to kick from inside their own 30 on kick-return sets. And that is a real possibility given the wingers are not noted for their one-out runs in the red zone. And will Turbo be able to turn a half-chance in the corner into a certain four-pointer like most of the NRL’s specialist wingers?

Josh Addo-Carr may be quick but can he make the hard yards. Picture: AAP

NICK CAMPTON (The Daily Telegraph): The defence out wide. Brad Fittler has picked a team with an attacking mindset, which is a great call and a brave one, but at the same time he has to deal with the flip side. Josh Addo-Carr, James Roberts and Latrell Mitchell are all tremendously gifted attacking players, but none of the three are known for their defence. Tom Trbojevic is not a specialist winger and Mitchell’s task is made all the more difficult due to James Maloney defending inside him. Maloney is a better defender than people credit him for and his missed tackle count is not the be-all and end-all, but the Maroons will go there early and often, so they’d best batten down the hatches.

TRAVIS MEYN (The Courier-Mail): Inexperience. The Blues have a combined 39 games of Origin experience compared to Queensland’s 112. With a record 11 debutants, NSW have a lack of experience right across the board. Halfback Nathan Cleary is a sensational player but is coming off a long-term injury and has not played Origin before. Hooker Damien Cook is new and will have to quickly adapt to a new style of play. Centres Latrell Mitchell and James Roberts are on debut and could be terrorised by Test duo Greg Inglis and Will Chambers. The Blues have weak spots across the park but they could also be strengths with the right attitude. An intriguing series awaits.

FATIMA KDOUH (The Daily Telegraph): If anything is going to hurt the Blues this series, and in particular in game one, it will be the lack of experience. Debuting 11 players was always going to a risky tactic by new coach Brad Fittler. But a changing of the guard was sorely needed. Some of these kids like Josh Addo-Carr and Nathan Cleary just ooze confidence so it’s hard to tell whether they will be overawed by the occasion. The other area of serious concern is the fragility of the new edge combinations. I expect the Queenslanders to send plenty of traffic down the flanks to test the Blues’ commitment in defence.

Originally published as State of Origin Danger Zone: Queensland Maroons, NSW Blues weak points exposed