State of Origin 2021: Numbers stack up for a Blues’ blitz in Game One
Statistically, NSW has Queensland covered in every facet of the game heading into Origin I, but there is one area in particular that should have the Maroons worried.
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This will be the Blues’ backline blitz.
Statistically, NSW has Queensland covered in every facet, it appears a complete domination. It shapes as a triumph for Turbo, Teddy and To’o in Origin I at Townsville.
In tries scored this year at NRL level, NSW backs have posted a combined total of 49 to Queensland’s paltry 33. It doesn’t end there.
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The NSW backline has posted a whopping 65 try assists. Queensland’s backs’ just 28.
In run metres, NSW’s backs have run for 9552 metres, Queensland way behind on 7948 metres. Line breaks: NSW’s backs 63; Queensland’s backs 43. Secondary try assists: NSW: 27; Queensland: 16. Tackle busts: NSW: 324; Queensland: 228.
And, tellingly, in missed tackles: NSW: 77; Queensland: 170.
“NSW backs have more lick and strike power,” NSW legend Noel Cleal said.
Ex-Blues champion, Benny Elias, added: “We have plenty to get square with the Queenslanders and I believe our slick backline will do a number on them come Wednesday night.”
And David “Cement” Gillespie was equally inspired by the NSW backline. “The Blues backline looks red-hot – it has size, power, speed and they are all in super form,” he said.
NSW’s Josh Addo-Carr, Nathan Cleary, Tom Trbojevic, James Tedesco, Brian To’o, Jarome Luai and Latrell Mitchell have it all over the Maroons’ Daly Cherry-Evans, Xavier Coates, Kurt Capewell, Dane Gagai, Kyle Feldt, Val Holmes and Cam Munster at NRL level this season.
The most incredible stat comes from To’o, who is averaging a stunning 236 run metres a game.
Former Blues forward Jimmy Dymock said NSW, aided by their backline, would “win easily” provided each player brought his NRL form to Origin.
“We have a great backline with players who are in form and they have club combinations,” Dymock said. “But that means nothing when it comes to Queensland, they know how to get the job done. The synergy they get is amazing.
“We need to bring that. If we bring that we will get the job done. They need to bring club form to the Origin arena. Easily said. If they do that they will win, and win easily.”
As always, former NSW hard man Mark Carroll tipped the big forwards – not backs – would decide the Origin match.
“I don’t care how good our backline stats are,” Carroll said. “If we don’t bash them in the middle then we won’t be talking about how good they are.”
THE TEEN MOMENT THAT FORGED BLUES HISTORY
By Fatima Kdouh
Eight years ago, Penrith Harold Matthews coach Brett Atkinson took one look at Jarome Luai and Nathan Cleary and knew they had to play alongside each other.
So, Atkinson made a decision that, today, has helped turn the Panthers into an NRL powerhouse.
On Wednesday night, that decision to pair the 15-year-olds could help NSW take the first step in regaining the State of Origin shield.
“When Nathan first played, I remember thinking that ‘we’ve just got to have this guy in the team alongside Jarome’,” Atkinson told The Daily Telegraph.
“And the rest is history.”
Atkinson first got a glimpse of Cleary in 2012 when his dad, Ivan, moved his young family back to Australia to take over as Penrith head coach from Matthew Elliott.
“There was a bit of gossip around that Nathan was actually a really good player, but he’d come from New Zealand. We asked him to come trial and right from the start his potential was clear for all to see,” Atkinson said.
“He went from coming off the bench for me into the starting line-up at the end of the season, it was quite phenomenal really when you think about it.
“Most of the other kids have been playing together in the junior leagues for a number of years, and here you have kid that’s just come over from New Zealand and basically put his stamp on the team the moment he was given a chance.”
That chance didn’t come immediately for Cleary.
Luai already had an established halves partner and Atkinson actually played Cleary at hooker just to get his best players on the field at the same time.
But deep down the under-16s coach knew Cleary’s advanced organisational skills and Luai’s flair and knack for off-the-cuff play made the teenagers a dynamic duo too hard to pass up.
Midway through the next season, Atkinson made the call to bring the pair together in the halves.
It helped forge one of the most dominant halves pairings in recent history.
Remarkably, since 2015, Cleary and Luai have lost only two of the 48 games they have played alongside each other.
“Just like they do now, they understood each other‘s style so well back then, too,” Atkinson said.
“That has shown not only their own performances, but in the team’s performance in the way that they’re able to direct the team around the park.”
While Cleary’s NRL debut came just three years after playing his first Harold Matthews game as 15-year old – Luai’s path to the top grade was not as clear cut.
Unlike Cleary, who physically developed a lot quicker, the diminutive Luai struggled for size coming through the ranks.
It raised questions about his ability to handle the physicality of NRL football.
But not for current Panthers assistant coach Cameron Ciraldo. He got to know the pair when he coached them in the under-20s NYC competition in 2015 on their way to winning the grand final, which Cleary missed.
“There was never any doubt in a lot of our eyes that he was going to play first grade, he was so gifted,” Ciraldo said of Luai.
“It was just a matter of Jarome’s body developing.
“When we saw him and Nathan in under 20s, it was neck and neck as to who would play first grade first.
“In one year, Nathan got a man’s body a lot quicker than what Jarome did.
“Jarome had to wait longer and work at it a bit but there was no doubt that he was going to play first grade.”
Still, Luai’s path to the NRL threw up obstacles.
First, he had to bide his time behind veteran playmaker James Maloney. Then, he and rising half Matt Burton battled for the No.6 jumper Maloney vacated ahead of the 2020 season.
“Back then in 2020 I just wanted to cement that No.6 jersey,” Luai said.
“There was a lot of talk that Matty [Burton] was also in the frame and we had a little battle for the role in the side.
“But I’ve always had that combo there with Nath, we’ve played since we were 15.
“I guess we surprised ourselves with how well we played so far because we knew the NRL was such a tough arena.”
Having helped guide Penrith to a grand final last season and a 12-game winning streak this year, not every NSW selector was convinced Luai should be picked ahead of Canberra’s Jack Wighton in the No.6 jumper.
Again, Luai had to fight for his place as his size became an issue despite Wighton, at 190cm and 96kg, being just 6cm and 6kg bigger.
Blues Adviser Greg Alexander revealed NSW coaching staff had “heated debates” for a month about Luai’s selection at five-eighth for game one.
“If you have a player who is up for it, whether they are big or small, why does it matter?” Alexander said.
“Jack is a big running six, but Jarome’s form warranted selection. We had huge debates in the last month about who was going to be our six.”
The man who lost out to Luai, though, had no such mixed feelings.
“On the field he’s a little mongrel, he carries on a bit,” Wighton said with a laugh.
“He’s such a good fella.
“I think it’s the perfect move, him and Nathan have been the best halves in the competition. You can’t ignore that.
“I’m backing him to kill it.”
It’s a sentiment echoed by Ciraldo.
“Jarome will be into the game with a lot of confidence, it’s who he is, he‘ll handle the pressure tonight. I’m so proud of him and the other Penrith boys,” Ciraldo said.
For Atkinson, who is now coaching St Marys Saints Harvey Norman Women‘s Premiership team, watching Cleary and Luai tackle Queensland will rank as the one his most rewarding moments as a coach.
“Nothing makes me more proud as a coach than seeing those two take apart the best players in first grade and hopefully they do that playing for NSW too,” Atkinson said.
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