NRL 2023: Bookies backing Broncos in NRL Grand Final | Sport Confidential
The Broncos’ charge to the NRL grand final has triggered the biggest bet of the season, as the bookies will collectively be $40m better off if Brisbane beat Penrith in Sunday’s decider.
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Brisbane’s charge to the NRL grand final has triggered the biggest bet of the season – a $38,000 monster bet for the Broncos to take out this year’s premiership.
Bookmakers nationwide will be around $40 million better off collectively if the Broncos beat Penrith in Sunday’s decider, despite the massive plunge for a Brisbane boilover.
Brisbane’s 42-12 rout of the Warriors in last weekend’s preliminary final convinced one punter to go hard for the Broncos for a potential $89,000 payout.
“We put the grand-final market up straight after Brisbane’s win and one bet came in for $38,000 at $2.35,” said TAB spokesman Gerard Daffy.
“That’s the biggest on the NRL so far this season.
“Over the years, there’s been lots of $50,000 and $100,000 bets, but that $38,000 bet is the biggest one we’ve taken so far this season in the NRL.
“We did take a lot of $5,000 bets on Penrith through the season to win it, but we haven’t taken a big bet on them yet so far this week.”
Incredibly, bookmakers face one of the biggest combined payouts in Australian sports betting history - around $50 million - if Penrith clinch a hat-trick of titles.
A Broncos triumph will cost bookies around $10-15 million, with Daffy revealing a Panthers ‘Three-Peat’ would be a financial disaster.
“This is one of the rare occasions where bookies will be cheering along for the Broncos,” he said.
“Usually for TAB, the Broncos winning the comp would be a bad result but there were a lot of non-believers at the start of the season because of the way the wheels fell off for Brisbane last year.
“At this time, I would estimate the payout for bookies nationally (for a Broncos win) would be around 20 per cent of what Penrith is going to be.
“Any grand finalist is going to be a multimillion dollar payout, but a Broncos payout will fall a long way short of the Panthers.
“The Broncos can do bookies a huge favour by beating Penrith on Sunday night.”
WAYNE BENNETT’S ROLE IN DELIVERING REYNOLDS TO BRONCOS
It is the $500,000 salary-cap call that forced Adam Reynolds out of South Sydney – and could deliver a Broncos premiership.
Reynolds was named NRL captain of the year at the Dally M Awards on Wednesday night and will lead the Broncos into their first grand final since 2015 in Sunday night’s decider against Penrith.
The sight of Reynolds walking off the Dally M stage as the NRL’s No. 1 captain will apply more salt to the deep wounds of Rabbitohs fans who cannot understand why their club cut ties with a South Sydney junior.
But Sport Confidential can reveal the desperate, last-ditch bid that would have freed up funds in the salary cap to keep Reynolds at Redfern.
Souths had offered the off-contract Reynolds a one-year extension for the 2022 season. Reynolds wanted more security, but with salary-cap pressures biting, something had to be done to keep the premiership playmaker in red and green.
Enter former Souths football boss Shane Richardson.
Renowned as an action man who gets results, Richardson, who departed Souths in 2020 to move into a consultancy role, proposed a mid-season transfer deal involving Reynolds’ then teammate Liam Knight.
Secret talks began.
The Souths prop was offered to then Bulldogs coach Trent Barrett, who was chasing a middle forward and had agreed to sign Knight to bolster his front-row stocks.
Knights’ departure would have cleared half-a-million dollars in the salary cap, enough funds in the eyes of Richardson to convince Reynolds to ink a beefed-up deal.
Then Souths coach Wayne Bennett desperately wanted to keep Reynolds but he was also concerned about losing Knight, at the time a regular starter in the 17, so the Bulldogs transfer fell through.
It’s possible Reynolds would have signed Brisbane’s three-year, $2.4 million carrot regardless, but the Canterbury-Knight transfer collapse left Souths helpless in the face of the Broncos’ $800,000 a season offer.
Richardson refuses to be critical of Souths hierarchy, but there is little doubt the Rabbitohs’ mega loss has been Brisbane’s grand-final gain.
“I was very surprised Souths let ‘Reyno’ go,” Richardson said. “He was the heart and soul of the club, as a junior he came through from the age of 16 and you hope players like that stay at the one place.
“I’m not whingeing or bitching about Souths. They made that decision and fair enough, but I’m just so pleased that Adam is happy in his new environment.
“I’m not sure why South Sydney didn’t fight harder to keep him, but all I know is it was a sad day when Souths lost him and in anybody’s language, he has been a great addition for the Broncos.
“When it became clear he wasn’t going to stay at Souths, I rang Chris Johns (Broncos legend) and said, ‘Mate if you don’t pick this guy up, you are crazy, he is outstanding’.
“I said to Chris, ‘Adam is a great leader’.
“I wanted Reyno to go to another good club because I knew he had greatness left in him so I wanted to make sure Reyno was taken care of and he has been.
“It’s wonderful to see him playing so well at the Broncos, he deserves everything he gets.”
DIAMOND DAVE
Brisbane coach Kevin Walters isn’t the only Bronco with extensive grand-final experience going into Sunday’s decider against Penrith.
Walters won six of seven grand finals as a player, but Broncos chief executive Dave Donaghy is fast chalking up some appearances at the NRL’s big dance.
The 2023 decider at Accor Stadium will be Donaghy’s fifth grand-final experience after four visits to Homebush during his previous stint at the Melbourne Storm.
Donaghy, who started as Storm CEO in 2015, presided over Melbourne’s three consecutive grand-finals between 2016-18 before Craig Bellamy’s troops returned to triumph in 2020.
Donaghy celebrated two premiership wins at the Storm and can make it a hat-trick if the Broncos shock the Panthers, two years after his arrival at Red Hill to drive the ‘Kev-olution’.
“Dave has been great for this club,” Broncos coach Kevin Walters.
“It’s not just me, making this grand final has been a team effort and Dave is certainly a part of that.
“He played a key role in us signing Adam Reynolds and Dave has been very supportive in our plans to get this club back to where we needed to be.”
KEVVIE’S PREMONITION
A bold prediction by Broncos coach Kevin Walters before a ball was kicked in the 2023 NRL season is on the verge of coming to fruition.
In the lead-up to his third season in charge of the Broncos, Walters sent a text message to Fox League presenter Yvonne Sampson.
“The Broncos are ready to climb the premiership summit,” it read.
Sampson referenced the text at this year’s Battle Lunch in the lead-up to the inaugural Battle of Brisbane between the Broncos and Dolphins.
Walters said he felt the Broncos had grown greatly after last year’s late-season fadeout and were in a much better position to launch a premiership assault.
He was right. Now they are just one win away from reaching the summit for the first time since 2006.
HASLER RINGS CHANGES
Incoming Titans coach Des Hasler has turned construction manager as he prepares to overhaul the under-performing Gold Coast club – on and off the field.
Hasler has had a huge tent – Des’ Dojo – constructed at the Titans’ Parkwood base ahead of his arrival.
Titans players will be flogged during pre-season wrestling sessions under the sweltering tent after Hasler identified the team’s defence must improve drastically if they are to become an NRL success.
Hasler is also weighing up a major positional shake-up of the Titans.
Veteran pivot Kieran Foran, who won a premiership at Manly with Hasler, could shift to halfback next season as part of a lethal scrumbase strikeforce with Queensland Origin star AJ Brimson.
Brimson has been superb at fullback for the Titans when fit, but wearing the No. 1 jumper threatens to block the path of young guns Jayden Campbell and Keano Kini.
By shifting Brimson to the halves with Foran, Campbell could slot into the fullback role and give the Titans a potent look in their playmaking spine.
Such a move would have repercussions for Tanah Boyd. He proved a handy option at halfback this season, but Boyd is capable of also playing hooker and has previously operated as a utility super-sub off interchange for the Titans.
REYNO’S CODE SWITCH
Broncos captain Adam Reynolds was 40 minutes away from a grand final last Saturday night, but had to check if the Brisbane Lions had already sealed their berth in the AFL decider.
Reynolds asked someone for the results of the Lions-Carlton prelim as he walked off the field at halftime of the Broncos’ preliminary final against the Warriors at Suncorp Stadium.
He was told the Lions got the job done, which gave Reynolds a little boost as he got ready for the second half of the Broncos’ game.
“No comment,” Reynolds said with a smile when asked if the story was true.
“I’ve got an interest in them. I love what they do.
“I’ve got down to a couple of games and met a couple of boys. I’ve got a couple of friends there now.
“It was great to see them get the victory. Hopefully we can make it one-two and come back to Brisbane with both trophies to celebrate.”
SMITH CHEERING BRONCOS
The Broncos are set to attract one of world sport’s biggest superstars to Sunday’s NRL grand final.
Australian golf gun Cameron Smith has been tipped to make the trip to Accor Stadium in Sydney to watch his beloved Broncos take on the Panthers in the premiership decider.
A Brisbane boy, Smith is a huge footy and doesn’t want to miss the opportunity to see the Broncos potentially win their first NRL title since 2006.
If Smith appears, as expected, he could be the highest-profile athlete in the 80,000-plus crowd.
TITANIC IMMORTAL CALL
Gold Coast Titans CEO Steve Mitchell has declared that women’s coach Karyn Murphy should be crowned the game’s first female Immortal.
Murphy was named NRLW coach of the year at the Dally M Awards on Wednesday night.
The Jillaroos great quit her role as NRL Integrity Unit boss to take charge of the Titans’ women’s program last year.
The Titans struggled in her first season in charge, but will face Newcastle in Sunday’s NRLW grand final following a fantastic revival that secured Murphy the coaching gong.
Now Mitchell has called for Murphy to become the first woman inducted into the prestigious Immortals.
“We currently have 13 Immortals in the NRL, who have all made extraordinary contributions to the game, but they are all men,” he said.
“It is time we had a female immortal and Karyn is added to this group. There is arguably no person who has been more influential to the female game of rugby league than Karyn.
“She represented the country for 15 years as a passion, when there was no support, and continues to inspire the next generation of female athletes.”
WAYNE’S TATTOO THAT NEVER WAS
Adam Reynolds has vowed to add a Broncos tattoo to his ink-covered body after Sunday’s NRL grand final.
But the former South Sydney skipper missed out on the opportunity to ensure Wayne Bennett got his first ever tattoo.
Bennett made a promise to Rabbitohs players during his stint at the club from 2019-21 that he would get his first tattoo, a bunny, if Souths won a premiership.
Reynolds had a sideline conversion in the dying minutes of the 2021 grand final against Penrith to level scores at 14-all, but the kick sailed wide and the Panthers hung on to beat Souths.
Bennett didn’t miss the chance to rub it into Reynolds, later telling one of his favourite players “if you didn’t miss that kick I’d be getting a tattoo of a rabbit right now”.
DALY HITS ORIGIN PLAN FOR SIX
Queensland Origin skipper Daly Cherry-Evans has hit out at plans to reduce the State of Origin from six weeks to a month.
Several NRL club chief executives are leading a push for a condensed Origin campaign to reduce the workload on the code’s elite stars, believing the six-week period is too disruptive to the Telstra Premiership.
Cherry-Evans experienced the hit-and-run three-week campaign during the Covid-affected Origin series in 2020 and is adamant the status quo must remain.
“I like it the way it is, I love it the way it is,” he said.
“Our camps are really enjoyable, we have a great group and great coaching staff, the QRL really look after us so I love the time I spend in camp.
“I don’t want it to change.
“If anything they could shorten the season, that could work.
“In 2020, I hadn’t played finals, so I had to wait five weeks to play and going into an Origin game without a game in that time was bloody hard. I remember how sore I was the next day.
“If we moved Origin to the end of the year, that would affect international football.
“I don’t know what the perfect answer is but hopefully they don’t affect Origin too much because it keeps me fresh, it gives me new ideas and I love playing for Queensland, so I have the best of both worlds.”
TITANS ROOKIE DUDDED
Gold Coast flyer Alofiana Khan-Pereira was dudded to not even make the short-list for Dally M rookie of the year honours.
Penrith winger Sunia Turuva was crowned the NRL’s No.1 rookie of the 2023 season at Wednesday night’s awards in Sydney.
Turuva has been excellent for the Panthers this season, particularly during the finals, but it is mind-boggling ‘AKP’ didn’t even make the short-list.
Khan-Pereira scored 20 tries in 23 games during his rookie NRL season, more than double the nine tries Turuva managed during the regular season.
Tigers fullback Jahream Bula was favourite for the award while Storm winger Will Warbrick was the other finalist.
Dolphins young gun Isaiya Katoa was also unlucky to get some recognition for his feats in a brand new team.
RABBIT PUNCH FOR PANTHER
Former Souths boss Shane Richardson has revealed his numerous failed bids to poach Jarome Luai from the Panthers.
Luai will be a key figure for Penrith in Sunday night’s grand final against the Broncos, but if Richardson had his way, the Panthers pivot would have been wearing the Souths No.6 jumper instead of Cody Walker.
As it turned out, Walker has become entrenched as Souths’ main man at six, but when Richardson first began his poaching raid almost a decade ago, the club had no concrete succession plan for John Sutton.
Richardson knew Luai would become a superstar and the now 26-year-old has underlined his loyalty to his Panthers childhood mates, staying loyal to help Penrith to four consecutive grand finals.
Souths believed they could partner Luai and Adam Reynolds in the halves. Now the pair will square off in Sunday’s decider.
“I have enormous respect for Luai, I chased Jarome since he was 16 years old to come to Souths,” Richardson said.
“I first tried to get him seven years ago and I just couldn’t get him across.
“I knew he would be a champion coming all the way through the grades.
“I tried every year, I called his manager Darryl Mather all the time to try and get him, but he did the right thing and stayed with his mates coming through St Marys.
“We were looking for a foil for ‘Reyno’ in the halves.
“Cody Walker has since kicked on to greatness but we were looking for a five-eighth when John Sutton eventually retired
“Luai didn’t come and Cody made the spot his own, but I knew Luai would become a champion player.”
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