Run home: How will the NRL top eight finish up?
Who will secure a top four spot and the double chance? Which team is in danger of dropping out of the playoffs race? Nick Campton answers the big questions with six rounds to go.
NRL
Don't miss out on the headlines from NRL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Monday Buzz: NRL’s technology fix for forward pass dramas
More Monday Buzz: Proof NRL is greatest game of all
With six rounds to go every spot in the NRL top eight can change hands as teams jostle for the double chance and the outsiders look to force their way in.
NICK CAMPTON predicts how the ladder will finish.
1. MELBOURNE STORM
Run home: Rd 20 v Broncos (A), Rd 21 v Rabbitohs (A), Rd 22 v Raiders (H), Rd 23 v Titans (H), Rd 24 v Sea Eagles (A), Rd 25 v Cowboys (H)
Analysis: Even with their loss on the weekend the Storm will be difficult to run down. They only leave Victoria once in the final four weeks and if they can beat the Rabbitohs in Round 21 they’ll just about wrap up the minor premiership.
2. SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Run home: Rd 20 v Titans (H), Rd 21 v Raiders (A), Rd 22 v Warriors (H), Rd 23 v Dragons (A), Rd 24 v Panthers (H), Rd 25 v Rabbitohs (A)
Analysis: Only leave Sydney once until the end of the regular season but will take on two other top four teams and the Panthers. They know how to time their run and will turn it on late — it seems like they’ve done all the resting they plan to do — but keep picking up little injuries that could slow their roll.
3. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Run home: Rd 20 v Sharks (A), Rd 21 v Storm (H), Rd 22 v Bulldogs (H), Rd 23 v Broncos (A), Rd 24 v Warriors (A), Rd 25 v Roosters (H)
Analysis: Haven’t looked at their best for a while but will still be favourites in each of their matches on the run home except for the clashes with Melbourne and the Roosters. That showdown with their old rivals in Round 25 could well decide who finishes second and third and set up a blockbuster rematch in the first week of the finals.
Live stream the 2019 NRL Telstra Premiership on KAYO SPORTS. Every game of every round live & anytime on your TV or favourite device. Get your 14 day free trial >
MORE NRL COVERAGE
Crash Tackle: NRL’s silent war runs deep
Simple answer to latest NRL controversy
4. CANBERRA RAIDERS
Run home: Rd 20 v Warriors (A), Rd 21 v Roosters (H), Rd 22 v Storm (A), Rd 23 v Sea Eagles (H), Rd 24 v Sharks (A), Rd 25 v Warriors (H)
Analysis: Canberra’s top four hopes will live and die with a three-match stretch from Round 21 to 23 where they play the Roosters, Storm (away) and Sea Eagles. If they beat Manly they’ll probably make the top four, if they beat the Roosters and Manly they could sneak into third and if they win all three they’ll only be a win or so behind the Storm. The first scenario feels the most likely.
5. MANLY SEA EAGLES
Run home: Rd 20 v Knights (H), Rd 21 v Warriors (A), Rd 22 v Wests Tigers (H), Rd 23 v Raiders (A), Rd 24 v Storm (H), Rd 25 v Eels (A)
Analysis: As it stands, Manly could win four of their last six and still slip down the ladder, a mark of the congestion of the competition. Their biggest game remaining is the Round 23 showdown with Canberra in the capital — depending on how other results shake out it could decide who makes the top four. A rematch with Melbourne, at home, and a final round match on the road against Parra is a tricky run into the finals.
6. PARRAMATTA EELS
Run home: Rd 20 v Dragons (A), Rd 21 v Knights (H), Rd 22 v Titans (A), Rd 23 v Bulldogs (H), Rd 24 v Broncos (A), Rd 25 v Sea Eagles (H)
Analysis: Manly feel like a better side than Parramatta but the Eels have a much softer run home — if either of them can land in the top four it will probably be decided on for and against. If the Eels win the games they’re supposed to and down Brisbane and Newcastle along the way they’ll be in with every chance.
7. PENRITH PANTHERS
Run home: Rd 20 v Bulldogs (A), Rd 21 v Sharks (H), Rd 22 v Broncos (A), Rd 23 v Cowboys (A), Rd 24 v Roosters (A), Rd 25 v Knights (H)
Analysis: The Panthers can just about wrap up a finals berth with victory in their next three matches — against the Bulldogs, Sharks and Broncos — but it’s not an easy road. With the Roosters and a potentially desperate Newcastle to close the regular season Penrith hold their destiny in their hands but must be good enough to take advantage.
8. BRISBANE BRONCOS
Run home: Rd 20 v Storm (H), Rd 21 v Cowboys (H), Rd 22 v Panthers (H), Rd 23 v Rabbitohs (H), Rd 24 v Eels (H), Rd 25 v Bulldogs (A)
Analysis: There are two games Brisbane simply have to win — the Round 22 match with Penrith and the Round 24 game against Parramatta. It is very difficult to see them landing in the finals without those two victories, unless they can upset the Storm or Rabbitohs. Even if they win both it might not be enough but four home games in five weeks is a major boost. They’ll also be praying the Knights can beat the Tigers in Round 23 — a Novocastrian victory would go a long way for the Brisbane cause. The joint venture club is their greatest rival in the chase for eighth.
9. WESTS TIGERS
Run home: Rd 20 v Cowboys (H), Rd 21 v Bulldogs (A), Rd 22 v Sea Eagles (A), Rd 23 v Knights (H), Rd 24 v Dragons (A), Rd 25 v Sharks (H)
Analysis: The finals are there for the Tigers if they’re good enough. They can win each of their remaining matches with the possible exception of the away match with Manly in Round 22. Most of their games are against teams in similar spots on the ladder, which can give them the double blow of advancing their own cause while detracting their opponents. They cannot afford any more slip up’s and the Round 23 game against the Knights in Campbelltown is their most important match — their finals hopes could hinge upon it.
10. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Run home: Rd 20 v Sea Eagles (A), Rd 21 v Eels (A), Rd 22 v Cowboys (H), Rd 23 v Wests Tigers (A), Rd 24 v Titans (H), Rd 25 v Panthers (A)
Analysis: Newcastle’s top four hopes are just about dead in the water and they have two games they absolutely cannot afford to lose on the run home — against the Tigers in Round 23 and the Panthers in Round 25. With only two home games in six weeks and hard tasks against the Sea Eagles and Eels to come in the following fortnight the Knights are paying the price for their recent ill form.
11. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
Run home: Rd 20 v Raiders (H), Rd 21 v Sea Eagles (H), Rd 22 v Roosters (A), Rd 23 v Sharks (A), Rd 24 v Rabbitohs (H), Rd 25 v Raiders (A)
Analysis: New Zealand’s run home is a house of horrors. They have Canberra, Manly, the Roosters, Cronulla, South Sydney and Canberra again — to make the finals they have to beat the Sharks away, beat the Raiders twice and pick up at least one other win. It’s a tough ask for any side.
12. CRONULLA SHARKS
Run home: Rd 20 v Rabbitohs (H), Rd 21 v Panthers (A), Rd 22 v Dragons (H), Rd 23 v Warriors (H), Rd 24 v Raiders (H), Rd 25 v Wests Tigers (A)
Analysis: Due to the machinations of the draw, the Sharks could win three of their last six and still not finish near the finals. In addition to winning all the games over non-eight sides, the Sharks need to beat the Warriors and Tigers to have any real chance and steal a game against the Raiders, Rabbitohs or Panthers. If they can win both of the former and two of the latter they could sneak in. They don’t leave Sydney again in the regular season and have four home games in five weeks coming up.
13. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
Run home: Rd 20 v Wests Tigers (A), Rd 21 v Broncos (H), Rd 22 v Knights (A), Rd 23 v Panthers (H), Rd 24 v Bulldogs (H), Rd 25 v Storm (A)
Analysis: It’s tough from here. Given the amount of teams around them playing against each other, and given they play many of those same teams on the run home, North Queensland could win one or two of their last six and still stay around this spot on the ladder. Have to win four of their next five to be any real chance but some of the games are winnable, especially if Michael Morgan comes back and hits form.
Originally published as Run home: How will the NRL top eight finish up?
Luai legacy: Star hopes brother, son build own Penrith dynasty
Jarome Luai cleaned out his locker at Penrith for the last time, but the four-time premiership winner says his name will live on at the club through his brother and son when they build their own dynasties at the foot of the mountains.
Broncos backflip: Madge pulls pin on Walters roster move
Michael Maguire has made his first big call as Broncos coach, pulling the handbrake on a Kevin Walters-era roster cleanout.