Run home: How will the NRL top eight finish up?
Who will secure a top four spot and the double chance? Which team is in danger of dropping out of the playoffs race? Nick Campton answers the big questions with five rounds to go.
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With five rounds to go every spot in the NRL top eight can change hands as teams jostle for the double chance and the outsiders look to force their way in.
NICK CAMPTON predicts how the ladder will finish.
1. MELBOURNE STORM
Run home: Rd 21 v Rabbitohs (A), Rd 22 v Raiders (H), Rd 23 v Titans (H), Rd 24 v Sea Eagles (A), Rd 25 v Cowboys (H)
Analysis: As expected, Melbourne rebounded well from their loss to Manly. South Sydney’s defeat removes their closest challenger for the minor premiership and their incredible points differential means a team will have to pass them outright to claim top spot. If they beat Souths this weekend and Canberra in Round 22 they’re home.
2. SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Run home: Rd 21 v Raiders (A), Rd 22 v Warriors (H), Rd 23 v Dragons (A), Rd 24 v Panthers (H), Rd 25 v Rabbitohs (A)
Analysis: As expected, the Roosters ground the Titans into a fine powder. A win over Canberra this weekend will put them one win clear of the Raiders and the Rabbitohs so a top two finish — and a home final — is well within their grasp.
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3. CANBERRA RAIDERS
Run home: Rd 21 v Roosters (H), Rd 22 v Storm (A), Rd 23 v Sea Eagles (H), Rd 24 v Sharks (A), Rd 25 v Warriors (H)
Analysis: No team in finals contention has a run home as tough as Canberra’s and it begins this week against the Roosters. For Canberra to crack the top two they need to win all three of their matches against the Tricolours, Storm and Manly — a tough proposition for any side. Beating Manly alone might be good enough to hold onto a top four spot. If they lose all three they need to beat a suddenly rejuvenated Cronulla and lowly New Zealand to at least lock up fifth or sixth, and thus get a home final.
4. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Run home: Rd 21 v Storm (H), Rd 22 v Bulldogs (H), Rd 23 v Broncos (A), Rd 24 v Warriors (A), Rd 25 v Roosters (H)
Analysis: Counted among the title challengers all season, the Rabbitohs place in the top four looks shakier than it has all season. A loss to Melbourne this weekend could have them finish the round as low as fifth but after that they would be heavy favourites in every game they play until their regular season finale against the Roosters. Given how they were dismantled by the Sharks, Wayne Bennett will want some stark improvement against Melbourne, even if it doesn’t end with a win.
5. MANLY SEA EAGLES
Run home: Rd 21 v Warriors (A), Rd 22 v Wests Tigers (H), Rd 23 v Raiders (A), Rd 24 v Storm (H), Rd 25 v Eels (A)
Analysis: If the Sea Eagles want to make the top four they simply must beat Canberra in Round 23. They can still make it if they go down to the Raiders but they’d probably need to beat Melbourne the following week — a tough ask for any side, even allowing for the Sea Eagles brilliant victory over the Storm two weeks ago.
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6. PARRAMATTA EELS
Run home: Rd 21 v Knights (H), Rd 22 v Titans (A), Rd 23 v Bulldogs (H), Rd 24 v Broncos (A), Rd 25 v Sea Eagles (H)
Analysis: Could the blue and golds ride their soft run home all the way to the top four? It’s definitely possible — with matches against the Knights, Titans, Bulldogs, Broncos and Sea Eagles coming up the Eels could conceivably run the table. Having said that, the two trips to Queensland — against the Titans and Broncos — are the exact type of banana skin games that have caused them slip ups in the past.
7. CRONULLA SHARKS
Run home: Rd 21 v Panthers (A), Rd 22 v Dragons (H), Rd 23 v Warriors (H), Rd 24 v Raiders (H), Rd 25 v Wests Tigers (A)
Analysis: Cronulla’s dominant win over South Sydney now seems to change the parameters of what they’re capable of in the run home. Only two teams in history have won the premiership from outside the top four and the Sharks are still two clear wins behind Parramatta in sixth but the 2016 premiers have a nice run home (they don’t leave Sydney, have three straight games at home and play just one team above them on the ladder) and could easily sneak into sixth and land a home final.
8. BRISBANE BRONCOS
Run home: Rd 21 v Cowboys (H), Rd 22 v Panthers (H), Rd 23 v Rabbitohs (H), Rd 24 v Eels (H), Rd 25 v Bulldogs (A)
Analysis: The Broncos are very difficult to get a read on and despite their good run home — only two top eight sides and three straight home games from Round 22 to 24 — I can’t confidently predict what they’re going to do. Wins over the Cowboys, Panthers and Bulldogs should be enough to make the finals (their odd number of competition points is a boost) but given their inconsistency who knows how they’ll fare.
9. WESTS TIGERS
Run home: Rd 21 v Bulldogs (A), Rd 22 v Sea Eagles (A), Rd 23 v Knights (H), Rd 24 v Dragons (A), Rd 25 v Sharks (H)
Analysis: So far, so good for the Tigers. Apart from the match against Manly in Round 22 they will be favourites until their clash with Cronulla in Round 25, a potential all-time season-ending clash where Robbie Farah and Paul Gallen could be facing retirement with a loss and finals footy with a win. The game against Newcastle at Campbelltown in Round 23 is crucial to their hopes.
10. PENRITH PANTHERS
Run home: Rd 21 v Sharks (H), Rd 22 v Broncos (A), Rd 23 v Cowboys (A), Rd 24 v Roosters (A), Rd 25 v Knights (H)
Analysis: The impact of Penrith’s loss to Canterbury cannot be underestimated. With matches against Cronulla, Brisbane and the Roosters to come they had to bank the wins while they could get them and now their tough run and horrendous for and against has them on the outer of the top eight race. They must beat the Broncos to make the finals — that is non-negotiable — and they must beat the Knights in Round 25 but even then it might not be enough.
11. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Run home: Rd 21 v Eels (A), Rd 22 v Cowboys (H), Rd 23 v Wests Tigers (A), Rd 24 v Titans (H), Rd 25 v Panthers (A)
Analysis: Five straight losses is very bad for business but the congestion of the competition and the fact the Knights take on a number of teams around them on the ladder means they’re still alive. The margin for error is shrinking by the week though — they probably need to win four of their last five to make the finals and while they’re not running a gauntlet (the Tigers and Eels are the only top eight teams they face) given their recent form it’s hard to be confident.
12. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
Run home: Rd 21 v Sea Eagles (H), Rd 22 v Roosters (A), Rd 23 v Sharks (A), Rd 24 v Rabbitohs (H), Rd 25 v Raiders (A)
Analysis: They can still make it but only on paper. With Manly, the Roosters, Cronulla, Souths and the Raiders to come the Warriors will have to run the table. I don’t think they can do it.
13. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
Run home: Rd 21 v Broncos (H), Rd 22 v Knights (A), Rd 23 v Panthers (H), Rd 24 v Bulldogs (H), Rd 25 v Storm (A)
Analysis: It’s over. Stick a fork in them.
Originally published as Run home: How will the NRL top eight finish up?
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