Origin statistic predicts that two of the Roosters, Panthers and Cowboys are grand final bound

Far from ruining a club’s hopes of playing grand final footy, State of Origin is the making of a grand final squad and David Riccio has the numbers to prove it.

Stop the fight. Sit down and get down off your soapbox.

There is no longer a debate that State of Origin gets in the way of club success.

Presented here are the numbers that should silence any further talk that the annual interstate series should be sliced, diced, moved or shortened in order to protect the game’s main product, the NRL competition.

To back that statement up, the numbers are lathered in 40-years of history.

Gather around, especially if you’re a Roosters, Cowboys or Panthers supporter.

You’re in the box seat to play in this year’s NRL grand final.

Alternatively, if either of those three clubs fall short of this year’s grand final, serious questions need to be answered.

Sure, there’s a mile of club-only league fans that view Origin as a painful fog that hovers over their team for six weeks in winter.

Deep down, those same fans understand the concept. They get the appeal.

But why on earth are you putting the players of my favourite club at risk of mental drain, physical fatigue and even injury? It could cost us the premiership, they cry.

Wrong.

Scroll down to see the full Origin/Grand Final stats since 1983

The Cronulla Sharks contingent in the NSW Blues Origin team Jack Bird ,James Maloney ,Andrew Fifita ,Paul Gallen and Wade Graham .Picture : Gregg Porteous

North Queensland had six players in the Maroons in 2005: (L-R) Carl Webb (front) Paul Bowman, Johnathan Thurston Matt Bowen, Matt Sing, and Ty Williams. Picture: Jamie Hanson

It’s time for those fans to let it go and understand their view is in complete contrast to the statistical proof that Origin is in fact, the greatest precursor to your club’s success.

Ricky Stuart recently claimed on these pages that the NRL’s most powerful clubs were whingers for sooking about losing their superstar players to State of Origin.

“You hear all these complaints that they’ve got to give up their superstars, the poor buggers,” Stuart said.

“I’d love to have five or six State of Origin players.

“They only compete for grand finals because they’ve got more elite Origin players than the other clubs.

“And then they complain.

“We’ve only got Hudson Young at the moment but I honestly wish we had more.”

The Raiders coach is spot on in his view, yet just shy of being correct in his numbers.

Since 1983, the actual magic number to make a grand final is an average of 4.92 State of Origin players in your team.

As it stands, ahead of Origin II, the Roosters, Cowboys and Panthers are the only three clubs in the NRL premiership race which meet the winning formula.

The Roosters and Cowboys have so far had six players chosen for Origin this series and the Panthers five.

You could safely argue that Penrith would also boast six Origin players had star halfback Nathan Cleary been available for NSW if not due to injury.

The club with the next best tally of current Origin players in their roster is the Broncos with four - just below the magic threshold and interestingly, one less than when they made the 2023 grand final.

Below the Broncos are the Sea Eagles (three) and the Dragons (three). The latter speaks to coach Shane Flanagan’s dogged pursuit of quality and experience in his roster, by chasing former NSW Origin hooker Damien Cook.

Parramatta players had eight NSW Origin players in 1983. (L-R) Ray Price, Peter Sterling, Brett Kenny, Mick Cronin, Steve Ella, Eric Grothe and Neil Hunt.

The Melbourne Storm had eight Origin players in 2008 and reached the grand final only to lose to Manly 40-0. Picture: Peter Wallis

It’s worth noting that both grand finalists last year, the Panthers and Broncos, met the magic 4.92 number with six and five Origin players respectively.

While not impossible to make the grand final with less than 4.92 Origin players, it is rare to go on and win the premiership with anything less.

You have to go back to 2019 and 2018 to find the Roosters were successful with four Origin players.

The numbers also speak to the current success of the top-four clubs.

Outside of the Panthers, the Storm (two), Sharks (two) and Dolphins (two) are down on the desired amount of Origin credentials to be there when it matters at the business end of the season.

So as fans cry foul over the impact of State of Origin on their team’s performance.

Remember this.

The more players you currently have missing from your team due to State of Origin commitments, the more chance you are being there on grand final day.

Originally published as Origin statistic predicts that two of the Roosters, Panthers and Cowboys are grand final bound