NRL Top Eight Analysis: Why the Roosters, Sea Eagles and Knights to fall
The Panthers dynasty rolls on while the Storm are always strong – but rugby league never stays static. Pamela Whaley analyses which of 2024’s finalists will contend again and which are set for a fall.
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The NRL top eight in 2024 delivered drama, dominance, and plenty of surprises.
The Panthers kept their dynasty rolling, the Storm weathered every challenge, and the Bulldogs finally gave their fans something to cheer about.
But who’s ready to step it up or stumble in 2025?
With high-profile signings, shock departures, and a few curveballs in the mix (hello, Roosters meltdown?), next season promises chaos in the best way.
Let’s see how the top eight is placed heading into 2025.
STORM
How they got here: For a record-equalling 10th time, Craig Bellamy performed coaching magic to deliver Melbourne to an NRL grand final. They cleared plenty of obstacles along the way with injuries to Cameron Munster, Xavier Coates and Ryan Papenhuyzen to finish four points clear at the top of the ladder. It was a gargantuan effort by Bellamy to unearth some of the brightest talent in the game, losing just five games all season despite rarely playing with a full squad. Hughes led the way while playing through injury in the best season of his career and was awarded with the Dally M. But with Nelson Asofa-Solomona suspended, they fell short in the decider against the unstoppable Panthers.
The forecast: The only time Melbourne have missed the finals under Craig Bellamy is when they were forced to compete for no points in 2010, so there’s almost no chance they’ll miss the top eight in 2025. If their big four, Munster, Papenhuyzen, Hughes and Harry Grant can stay on the field they’ll be premiership heavyweights, as per usual. Stefano Utoikamanu is expected to blossom under Bellamy’s influence too.
Key Issues: Papenhuyzen is a free agent and his future beyond 2025 will attract headlines until he makes a decision. After the grand final defeat, expectations are high for next season.
They will start the year as favourites for the title and have a great draw for a fast start.
Verdict: Great again: They’ll be premiership contenders in 2025.
Squad
Ins: Stefano Utoikamanu (Tigers)
Outs: Reimis Smith (released), Young Tonumaipea (released), Aaron Pene (released)
PANTHERS
How they got here: At this point not winning a premiership would be more of a shock than winning another one. Penrith debuted another season of evolution in 2024, missing Nathan Cleary for most of the year to injury, as well as navigating the ongoing player drain forced by salary cap restrictions. Jarome Luai stood on his own, leading the side to a fifth straight decider and fourth premiership to wrap up his time in the mountains. They faltered, and weren’t at their best for a lot of the season, but once the finals arrived they were untouchable.
The forecast: Nathan Cleary has grown into a once in a generation type of player who could finish his career as the best of all time. Luai’s move to the Wests Tigers will be a loss, but Blaize Talagi is a dynamite buy and will be the ideal foil for Cleary. The ongoing development of young forwards coming through the club will regenerate the pack, which could see Isaiah Papali’i return to his best form.
Key Issues: A brand new halves partnership aside, the Panthers will have a major hurdle to clear in 2025. While their Penrith-based fortress is being redeveloped they’ll play eight home games out of CommBank Stadium, the traditional home ground of their arch rivals Parramatta.
It’s a 30 minute drive down the M4, right in the heart of enemy territory. Added to the complication is starting the season against Cronulla in Las Vegas, before facing the Roosters and Melbourne in a grand final rematch in the first three rounds.
Verdict: Great again: They’ll be premiership contenders in 2025.
Squad
Ins: Isaiah Papali’i (Tigers), Blaize Talagi (Eels)
Outs: Sunia Turuva (Tigers), Jarome Luai (Tigers), James Fisher-Harris (Warriors), Isaiah Iongi (Eels), Tyrone Peachey (retired)
ROOSTERS
How they got here: After a dramatic win against the Broncos in Las Vegas the Roosters were off to a great start, landing in the top four for good midway through the season. Their attack clicked and they ran up big scores on teams below them on the ladder, but still struggled against the grand finalists. They lost three games to Melbourne and two to Penrith as injuries crippled them at the back end of the season.
The forecast: All signs point to a tough season for the Roosters in 2025 at a time of major roster overhaul. They have lost five international players, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Joey Manu, Joseph Suaalii, Luke Keary and Sitili Tupouniua, and will be missing Sam Walker and Brandon Smith for the first half of the season. However, they’re a powerhouse club still stacked with big name stars and are never far from the mix.
Key Issues: Missing out on Ben Hunt is a huge blow, with Chad Townsend the only career half available on the squad for the early part of the season. Folded into their roster problems, the Roosters have a brutal draw, facing Penrith and the Broncos twice each by round 7, and Melbourne twice at the back end of the year. The exit of Manu and Suaalii leaves a huge class gap in the backline, all of which creates one of the toughest tests for Trent Robinson’s coaching career.
Verdict: Not great. They’ll miss the top 8.
Squad
Ins: Mark Nawaqanitawase (rugby union), Chad Townsend (Cowboys)
Outs: Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii (rugby union), Jared Waerea-Hargreaves (Hull KR), Joseph Manu (rugby union), Luke Keary (Catalans), Sitili Tupouniua (Bulldogs), Terrell May (Tigers)
SHARKS
How they got here: The Sharks have been consistently building under Craig Fitzgibbon and 2024 was as close as they have been to the title. They won nine of their first 10 games, including wins against Melbourne and the Roosters to raise their premiership credentials. A massive 42-0 loss to Penrith in round 12 brought them back to earth, and their form was mixed thereafter. The knock on Cronulla has been their form against top sides and a losing finals record, but in 2024 they proved they are among the best teams in the competition.
The forecast: Hopes are high in Cronulla after a season that can be chalked up as a success. Addin Fonua Blake is a big signing who could be the missing link for the Sharks upfront, giving more time and space for Braydon Trindall and Nicho Hynes to flourish. Trindall found his way as a dominant half in 2024, which took a load of pressure off Hynes. If that continues, they’ll ride an upwards trajectory back to the top in 2025.
Key Issues: It’s lucky they ironed out their issues playing top eight sides because they’ll be doing a lot of it in 2025. They have one of the hardest draws, playing 13 games against top eight clubs from 2024.
Including a trip to Vegas to open the season they have another two away games in the first five rounds in Townsville and Canberra.
Verdict: Great again. They’ll be top 8 again next year.
Squad
Ins: Addin Fonua-Blake (Warriors), Hohepa Puru (Raiders)
Outs: Royce Hunt (Tigers)
COWBOYS
How they got here: The Cowboys took a trip up and down the ladder, which included a five-game losing streak and big losses to the Warriors and Broncos. They slipped out of the top 8 by round 11 but rallied with seven wins from their final eight games to be the last team standing in Queensland. They knocked the Knights out of the finals but were below par against the Sharks, leaving plenty of room to improve in 2025.
The forecast: Scott Drinkwater and Tom Dearden were among the form players of the competition, and if they can replicate it in 2025 there is plenty to be excited about next year. A favourable draw helps too. In the club’s 30th anniversary, the Cowboys play 10 of their 12 home games on Saturday night, avoid long haul trips to Canberra, Newcastle and Auckland and have just one five-day turnaround. No excuses.
Key Issues: Defensive lapses were a major hurdle for the Cowboys in their premiership push and big work needs to be done if they want success. They’ll have to find a solution to scoring points too. Kyle Feldt (super league) was the top tryscorer and Valentine Holmes (Dragons) was the top pointscorer last year. As a club their major issue has been consistency across the past few years. While Todd Payten has proved his coaching chops in terms of taking them to the finals, there’s a belief they have underperformed considering their roster and ability.
Verdict: Great again. They’ll be top 8 in 2025.
Squad
Ins: Karl Lawton (Sea Eagles), Kai O’Donnell (Leigh Leopards – Super League), Jaxson Paulo (Sea Eagles)
Outs: Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (Dolphins), Chad Townsend (Roosters), Kyle Feldt (St Helens), Jake Granville (TBC), Val Holmes (Dragons), D’Jazirhae Pua’avase (released)
BULLDOGS
How they got here: Bulldogs fans had something to celebrate in 2024. After seven years in the finals wilderness, a team of superstars and a persistent coach led the club back into the top eight, erupting a thousand car horns along Canterbury Road. Stephen Crichton unlocked leadership skills few knew he possessed, and as wins pilled up, fans jumped on board and a party ensued. With Matt Burton, Viliame Kikau and Reed Mahoney in form, points flowed easily but it was their defence that took a dramatic turn around. Across the regular season they conceded just 433 points, defence which was beaten only by Penrith and Cronulla, and was their lowest since 2012.
The forecast: They went from 15th to sixth within the space of a season so it’s hard to know how long the Bulldogs can maintain their new brand of football. But with improvements across the board it’s hard not to be hopeful they’ve finally turned a corner towards success for 2025. Crichton has established himself as one of the best players in the competition and that won’t change next year. Although they stumbled in the finals with a scrappy loss to Manly, the Bulldogs learned big lessons this season and they’ll be better for it.
Key Issues: There were concerns about the lack of size in the forwards heading into last year, but Ciraldo managed to turn it into a positive, making them the most mobile pack in the competition. Sitili Tupouniua joins from the Roosters which adds much-needed depth and experience, but they’re still dangerously short on front-rowers. Three straight losses to finish the season was also a huge downer. The Bulldogs need to find a way to make their unpredictable energy last deep into the finals.
Verdict: Great again. They’ll be top 8 in 2025.
Squad
Ins: Tom Amone (Leigh Leopards), Sitili Tupouniua (Roosters), Marcelo Montoya (Warriors), Enari Tuala (Knights)
Outs: Jeral Skelton (Tigers), Joash Papalii (Eels), Jordan Samrani (Eels), Josh Addo-Carr (Eels).
SEA EAGLES
How they got here: Poor away form cost Manly this season, winning just four games away from Brookvale Oval as they struggled to prove themselves a top four side. They moved in and out of the top eight and went toe to toe with Panthers, Storm, Roosters and Cowboys, only to be tripped up by Souths, Dragons and Wests Tigers along the way. They went down swinging, but it was another year falling short of potential.
The forecast: The Sea Eagles could be anything in 2025. But that’s entirely the point. It’s been the same way for the past few years now. On paper they’re premiership contenders, but they need to fix their focus and stop drifting in and out of games. Whether they can rectify that in the pre-season is another thing, but time is running out to make the most of the roster.
There will be no excuses draw-wise either. They play four of their first five games at Brookvale Oval, and of all the top eight teams they play just Cowboys, Storm and Sharks twice.
Key Issues: A question mark on the future of skipper Daly Cherry-Evans will hang around until his contract is sorted one way or another. The champion halfback is off-contract at the end of the season, and at 36 could play on in 2026 or retire. It’s a huge call that will have ramifications for the club no matter what he decides. The fitness of star fullback Tom Trbojevic is an ongoing concern considering his injury history. It can make or break a season.
Verdict: Not great. They’ll miss the top 8.
Squad
Ins: Joey Walsh (rugby union), Jazz Tevaga (Warriors), Siua Taukei’aho (Catalans)
Outs: Karl Lawton (Cowboys), Jamie Humphreys (Rabbitohs), Jaxson Paulo (Cowboys), Aaron Woods (retired), Brad Parker (retired)
KNIGHTS
How they got here: Much like the season before, Newcastle were running on the smell of an oily rag by the time they scraped into the finals as injuries and poor form took hold throughout the year. With Kalyn Ponga on and off the field there was so much inconsistency within the team, which translated into the results. They won enough games to remain within reach of the top eight, and their only flogging was a 44-6 loss to Manly in round 19. A good draw helped their finals push, and they won four of their last five including a sudden death clash with the Dolphins in the final round to make the top eight.
The forecast: There’s a question mark over the Knights coming into 2025. They’ve played finals for the past two seasons, but have looked nowhere near close to a premiership winning side. It’s difficult to know if they’re improving at all, and with no major recruits to refresh the team, it could be another midfield finish. Ponga is their ace and any hope of a successful season is wrapped up in him.
Key Issues: The spine remains a huge issue. Fullback Kalyn Ponga is the only sure thing, with Jayden Brailey and Jackson Hastings off-contract while Jack Cogger, Tyson Gamble and Phoenix Crossland all rotated between dummy half and halves throughout last season. There’s an opportunity across the pre-season for anyone besides Ponga to nail down a spot because as of now, no one has. With no signings of note, there’s no improvement to the situation that has seemed to plague the Knights for the past few seasons.
Verdict: Not great. They’ll miss the top 8.
Squad
Ins: Francis Manuleleua, Taj Annan (Queensland Reds), Tyrone Thompson (Rugby NZ), James Schiller (Raiders)
Outs: Myles Martin (Raiders), David Armstrong (Leigh), Daniel Saifiti (Dolphins), Tom Jenkins (released), Enari Tuala (Bulldogs)
Originally published as NRL Top Eight Analysis: Why the Roosters, Sea Eagles and Knights to fall
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