NRL run home: Week one finals match-ups; best and worst ladder finishes

With two rounds of the NRL regular season remaining, we reveal every club’s best and worst ladder finish and the week one finals scenarios.

Penrith Panthers are set to claim another minor premiership. Picture: Getty Images/Getty

It’s a wild race to the finish line with teams in the top eight still fighting to play finals.

Some could finish as high as top four with a second chance in the playoffs, or out of the finals altogether with just two rounds left to play.

So to prepare for a whirlwind fortnight, we’ve calculated the best and worst case scenarios for each team, where they’re likely to finish and what the first week of finals looks like.

1. PANTHERS

Won: 17, Lost: 5, Drawn: 0, Points: 40, Points Differential: 315

Best finish: 1st

Worst finish: 2nd

Predicted finish: 1st

Penrith only need to win the same amount of games as Brisbane to finish first, because their points differential is astronomical. If they drop a game or even two against either the Eels or Cowboys and Brisbane beat both Raiders and Storm, Penrith will finish second.

2. BRONCOS

Won: 17, Lost: 5, Drawn: 0, Points: 40, Points Differential: 213

Best finish: 1st

Worst finish: 3rd

Predicted finish: 2nd

The Broncos need to win just one more game than the Panthers to claim the minor premiership, but they’ve got two tough games against the Raiders and Storm without Adam Reynolds steering the ship. It’s unlikely, but they could finish as low as third if they have two big losses and the Warriors have two big wins. There’s a points differential of 77 points between them.

Penrith Panthers are set to claim another minor premiership. Picture: Getty Images/Getty

3. WARRIORS

Won: 15, Lost: 7, Drawn: 0, Points: 36, Points Differential: 136

Best finish: 2nd

Worst finish: 5th

Predicted finish: 3rd

If the Warriors win their final two games against the Dragons and Dolphins they’ll finish third, but regardless, they need to win one more game than the Storm to lock it in. There’s an outside chance they could finish second if they have two big wins and the Broncos have two big losses. However, if they lose both games they could finish as low as fifth if Storm win one or both games to cover the points differential and the Sharks beat both the Knights and Raiders.

4. STORM

Won: 14, Lost: 8, Drawn: 0, Points: 34, Points Differential: 137

Best finish: 3rd

Worst finish: 6th

Predicted finish: 4th

There’s a few scenarios for the Storm in their next two games against the Titans and Broncos. They can finish as high as third if they win one more game than the Warriors and cover the difference in points, but they could slip to fifth if they lose one more game than the Sharks. To finish sixth they would need to lose both games and have two of three things go against them - the Sharks to lose to the Knights but beat Raiders and cover the points differential, the Raiders win both games and the Knights to win both games.

5. SHARKS

Won: 13, Lost: 9, Drawn: 0, Points: 32, Points Differential: 130

Best finish: 3rd

Worst finish: miss finals

Predicted finish: 6th

If the Warriors lose both games the Sharks can finish as high as third as long as Storm win just one game and Sharks win two against Knights and Raiders (and cover the points differential). It’s high unlikely, but they can miss the finals if they lose both games by big margins, the Cowboys have two big wins and the Rabbitohs have a big win over the Roosters. The Sharks need to win just one game though, and they’ll finish sixth at a minimum.

6. RAIDERS

Won: 13, Lost: 9, Drawn: 0, Points: 32, Points Differential: -108

Best finish: 4th

Worst finish: Miss finals

Predicted finish: 8th

The Raiders have a tough draw against the Broncos and Sharks, but if they win both they’re an outside chance of finishing fourth if Storm and Sharks lose both of their games. They’ll finish at least seventh if they have just one win. If they lose both games they can miss the finals completely if three of the following scenarios occur: Knights win at least one game, Rabbitohs beat the Roosters, Cowboys win two games or Roosters win two games.

7. KNIGHTS

Won: 12, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 31, Points Differential: 129

Best finish: 4th

Worst finish: Miss finals

Predicted finish: 5th

The red-hot Knights can steam into a top four finish if they beat both Sharks and Dragons, Storm lose both games and the Raiders win now more than one game. However, by winning just one game, they can finish no worse than seventh. If they lose both games, they can miss the finals if the Rabbitohs beat the Roosters in round 27, Cowboys win both of their games or the Roosters win two to finish the season.

8. RABBITOHS

Won: 12, Lost: 11, Drawn: 0, Points: 28, Points Differential: 73

Best finish: 6th

Worst finish: Miss finals

Predicted finish: 9th

A bye this week makes it really simple for the Rabbitohs, setting up a do-or-die clash with the Roosters in the final round without Latrell Mitchell. They need just to beat the Roosters to make the finals with the Cowboys needing to make up a 60+ points differential to catch them. If Souths beat the Roosters they can finish as high as sixth if the Sharks win both games, and the Raiders and Knights lose their final two. However, if they lose the last game of the round, they will miss the finals if the Roosters beat the Tigers on Saturday or Cowboys win both of their games.

South Sydney is tipped to miss the eight.

9. COWBOYS

Won: 11, Lost: 11, Drawn: 0, Points: 28, Points Differential: 12

Best finish: 6th

Worst finish: Miss finals

Predicted finish: 10th

It’s a long way to the finals for the Cowboys who will most likely miss the top eight altogether. However, if a series of events fall their way and they beat the Dolphins and Panthers, they can finish as high as sixth. They would need the Sharks to win both games, Raiders and Knights to lose both games, and Roosters to beat Souths in the last round. They wold need two of those four scenarios to occur, as well as win their last two games, to have a realistic hope of making the top eight.

10. ROOSTERS

Won: 11, Lost: 11, Drawn: 0, Points: 28, Points Differential: -62

Best finish: 6th

Worst finish: Miss finals

Predicted finish: 7th

It’s quite simple for the Roosters from now on. They need to beat the Tigers on Saturday and Souths in the final round, while hoping either the Knights or Raiders lose both games, and the Cowboys lose at least one. If they get really lucky and all three things happen they can finish sixth.

11. EELS

Won: 11, Lost: 12, Drawn: 0, Points: 26, Points Differential: -1

Best finish: 8th

Worst finish: Miss finals

Predicted finish: 12th

It’s highly unlikely the Eels can make the finals but here’s what would need to fall their way for a miracle to occur. With a bye in the last round, they would need a big win over the Panthers at Penrith on Thursday night, for the Roosters to lose to the Tigers but thrash the Rabbitohs, and for the Cowboys to win only one game and fall behind on points differential (which is just 10 points better).

Originally published as NRL run home: Week one finals match-ups; best and worst ladder finishes