NRL run home 2023: Where every club is set to finish and the unlikely powerhouses to miss out
With eight rounds of the NRL regular season remaining, we go through the run home for every team to reveal who will make the cut with two huge clubs likely to miss out.
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With the focus set to return to the NRL competition after State of Origin, PAUL CRAWLEY looks at the run home for every team, identifying the biggest winners and losers in the countdown to September.
Who will make the cut?
And which two big clubs are likely to miss out?
BRISBANE BRONCOS
Current position: 2nd on 28 competition points (+95 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 5th (38 competition points)
Run home: Bulldogs (a), Rabbitohs (Sunshine Coast), Roosters (h), Cowboys (a), Eels (h), bye, Raiders (a), Storm (h)
Verdict: The expectation is 38 competition points could be the top four cut-off, and even then it could come down to points differential between the Broncos and the Rabbitohs. For that reason the round 21 clash against Adam Reynolds’ former club will be massive in what is likely to coincide with Latrell Mitchell’s return from injury. Remember, this is the time the Broncos fell off the cliff last year, losing five of their final six games. While I don’t see them falling in a hole that big, winning five of the remaining seven to finish top four is a huge ask given the Broncos’ draw.
CANBERRA RAIDERS
Current position: 5th on 26 competition points (-55 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 8th (34 competition points)
Run home: bye, Warriors (a), Knights (h), Tigers (h), Storm (a), Bulldogs (h), Broncos (h), Sharks (a)
Verdict: Ricky Stuart’s Raiders are in charge of their own destiny and should finish comfortably in no worse than eighth spot providing they win the games expected of them against the Knights, Tigers and Bulldogs. But if you’ve watched the Raiders this year, you’ll know that comfortable is a word that does not sit well with any Raiders performance. Still, I have them finishing four points clear of ninth placed Parramatta who have an incredibly tough run. Jack Wighton’s pending departure will be a massive motivation.
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Current position: 15th on 16 competition points (-216 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 15th (18 competition points)
Run home: Broncos (h), Panthers (a), Dolphins (Bundaberg), bye, Knights (a), Raiders (a), Sea Eagles (h), Titans (a)
Verdict: So how do you judge success or failure when it comes to the Bulldogs this year who finished 12th last season under stand-in coach Mick Potter? Because I can’t see them finishing that high in Cameron Ciraldo’s first season in charge. The only good news is that they don’t look in any serious danger of finishing with the wooden spoon.
CRONULLA SHARKS
Current position: 3rd on 26 competition points (+134 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 7th (34 competition points)
Run home: Warriors (a), Sea Eagles (h), Panthers (a), Rabbitohs (a), Titans (h), Cowboys (a), Knights (a), Raiders (h)
Verdict: The Sharks’ shocking record against top eight teams is a big worry to their top four hopes, especially when you look at the run home. This year they have had six games against teams currently in the eight and won just one (against the Eels in round two). Now they face four top eight teams in their final eight games as well as the charging Cowboys.
DOLPHINS
Current position: 12th on 20 competition points (-81 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 11th (28 competition points)
Run home: Panthers (h), bye, Bulldogs (Bundaberg), Knights (Perth), Roosters (a), Tigers (a), Cowboys (h), Warriors (h)
Verdict: It looks like Wayne Bennett will have to live with finishing outside the finals for only the fifth time in 36 years. It’s still a commendable effort for the NRL’s newcomers who many thought would battle to avoid the wooden spoon. Still have four very winnable games and a bye.
GOLD COAST TITANS
Current position: 11th on 20 competition points (-33 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 14th (22 competition points)
Run home: Eels (a), Roosters (h), Cowboys (h), Warriors (h), Sharks (a), Panthers (h), Storm (a), Bulldogs (h)
Verdict: Justin Holbrook might have got out at a good time given the Titans’ run home from hell. Of the remaining eight rounds they have five games against current top eight opponents, and throw in the Cowboys and desperate Roosters for good measure. That gives the Titans next to no chance of playing finals footy this year, which was always going to be Holbrook’s pass mark.
MANLY SEA EAGLES
Current position: 10th on 21 competition points (-24 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 12th (27 competition points)
Run home: Cowboys (h), Sharks (a), Dragons (a), Roosters (a), Panthers (h), Warriors (a), Bulldogs (a), Tigers (h)
Verdict: Sea Eagles fans should know in two weeks if they still have any real hope of making the play-offs, with the next two games against the Cowboys (who have a stack of players coming off an Origin series) followed by the Sharks. Currently only one competition point outside the eight, but would most likely need to win seven of the remaining eight just to scrape in.
MELBOURNE STORM
Current position: 4th on 26 competition points (+65 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 3rd (40 competition points)
Run home: Roosters (a), Knights (a), Eels (h), Panthers (a), Raiders (h), Dragons (a), Titans (h), Broncos (a)
Verdict: You never hear Craig Bellamy even mentioned in the coach of the year debate. But to have the Storm sitting so high up the ladder despite playing the entire season without Ryan Papenhuyzen is just an amazing effort. The odds are they will go on to notch up another top four finish, and what a boost it would be to get Papenhuuzen back come finals time.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Current position: 14th on 19 competition points (+26 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 13th (25 competition points)
Run home: Tigers (h), Storm (h), Raiders (a), Dolphins (a), Bulldogs (h), Rabbitohs (h), Sharks (h), Dragons (a)
Verdict: In the Knights’ favour is five of their remaining eight games are at home. Going against them is the fact they would probably need to win all those eight games to make the finals. Won’t happen no matter how well Kalyn Ponga plays.
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
Current position: 9th on 22 competition points (+38 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 6th (36 competition points)
Run home: Sea Eagles (a), Eels (h), Titans (a), Broncos (h), bye, Sharks (h), Dolphins (a), Panthers (a)
Verdict: Have won their last four with Scott Drinkwater and Tom Dearden absolutely flying. Currently 9th but on equal points with the seventh-placed Eels and eighth-placed Rabbitohs. Haven’t the easiest run and have probably left it too late to finish top four, but should pick up enough wins to emerge the smokies come September.
PARRAMATTA EELS
Current position: 7th on 22 competition points (+96 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 9th (30 competition points)
Run home: Titans (h), Cowboys (a), Storm (a), Dragons (h), Broncos (a), Roosters (h), Panthers (a), bye
Verdict: How much will Dylan Brown’s suspension come back to bite the Eels? We’re about to find out given the star five-eighth won’t return until round 23 after they’ve played the Titans, Cowboys and Storm.
Even though last year’s grand finalists look well poised to make a run, the Eels have an incredibly tough draw and probably still need at least five wins in their remaining seven matches just to qualify for the eight. Before last round’s belting by the Warriors (without Parramatta’s Origin players) they were showing some really promising form after five straight wins, but Brown’s absence has come at the worst possible time.
PENRITH PANTHERS
Current position: 1st on 28 competition points (+193 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 1st (44 competition points)
Run home: Dolphins (a), Bulldogs (h), Sharks (h), Storm (h), Sea Eagles (a), Titans (a), Eels (h), Cowboys (h)
Verdict: Another unbelievable effort from the back-to-back premiers who look primed for another minor premiership, with Nathan Cleary this week named on the extended bench to make his return from injury. It puts them in a great position to become the first club since Jack Gibson’s mighty Eels of the early 1980s to win three straight titles.
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Current position: 8th on 22 competition points (+92 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 4th (38 competition points)
Run home: bye, Broncos (h), Tigers (Tamworth), Sharks (h), Dragons (Cairns), Knights (a), bye, Roosters (h)
Verdict: Should get Mitchell back after this round’s bye for the blockbuster against the Broncos, and still have another bye to come in round 26. So even though they are in eighth spot currently, the Rabbitohs look well positioned to finish top four with a relatively easy draw. Wouldn’t surprise to see the Bunnies go unbeaten on the run to the finals providing their Origin stars return in reasonably good health.
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Current position: 16th on 12 competition points (-137 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 16th (16 competition points)
Run home: bye, Tigers (h), Sea Eagles (h), Eels (a), Rabbitohs (Cairns), Storm (h), Warriors (a), Knights (h)
Verdict: Have the bye this round followed by the likely wooden spoon play off against the Tigers next Thursday in Wollongong. After another horror season, Dragons fans can take some confidence from the effort shown in the close loss to the Raiders. Hopefully that fight stays with them for the remaining games, even though the finals are well out of reach.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Current position: 13th on 20 competition points (-92 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 10th (28 competition points)
Run home: Storm (h), Titans (a), Broncos (a), Sea Eagles (h), Dolphins (h), Eels (a), Tigers (h), Rabbitohs (a)
Verdict: Charged home last year winning their final eight games to finish sixth. But on what we’ve seen this year, the Roosters have next to no chance of winning seven of their remaining eight games that would be needed to make the top eight. Whatever way you look at it, it’s been an extremely disappointing year for a star-studded roster many thought would challenge for the title.
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
Current position: 6th on 24 competition points (+78 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 2nd (40 competition points)
Run home: Sharks (h), Raiders (h), bye, Titans (a), Tigers (Waikato), Sea Eagles (h), Dragons (h), Dolphins (a)
Verdict: Shaping up as the most heartwarming story in the NRL’s run to September with the team that spent two years away from home due to Covid primed for a top two finish. Incredibly, five of the Warriors’ remaining seven games will be played in New Zealand, and their only two games in Australia will be against the Titans and Dolphins.
WESTS TIGERS
Current position: 17th on 12 competition points (-179 points differential)
Crawley’s prediction: 17th (12 competition points)
Run home: Knights (a), Dragons (a), Rabbitohs (Tamworth), Raiders (a), Warriors (Waikato), Dolphins (h), Roosters (a), Sea Eagles (a)
Verdict: The best news Tigers fans have heard in ages is that Api Koroisau has been named to return on Friday night against the Knights, which would be a huge boost in the fight to avoid the wooden spoon. If Koroisau takes the field there is every chance the Tigers could upset a few yet on the run home. But they really need to knock over the Knights and back that up against the Dragons next Thursday.
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