NRL round 25 run home: Every game and final ladder prediction, and the four teams to decide top 8

The mathematical chances, the locks, and the form of four teams which will determine the finishing order — these are the key numbers behind the race to the NRL finals.

The form of four teams are likely to decide the top eight.

The battle for the minor premiership will go down to the wire between Brisbane and Penrith, who are far and away the best teams in the competition this season.

Below them, nothing else is assured.

There’s three rounds to go before the NRL finals and the race is still alive for eight teams in a jam packed ladder.

The Roosters, Parramatta and Manly are still alive mathematically, but the form of Cronulla, Newcastle, Canberra and South Sydney will ultimately decide the finalists.

We’ve crunched the numbers and found the teams set to buckle, those with an easy draw to finish and the teams who might just sneak into the finals after a wild ride.

The form of four teams are likely to decide the top eight.

1. PANTHERS

Won: 16, Lost: 5, Drawn: 0, Points: 38, Points Differential: 289

Panthers’ run home

R25: Titans at Cbus Super Stadium (W)

R26: Eels at BlueBet Stadium (W)

R27: Cowboys at BlueBet Stadium (W)

Predicted finish: 1st, (19-5)

The race to the minor premiership is still neck and neck, so it’s unlikely there’ll be a mass resting of players in round 27. Penrith’s big guns have mostly all had a week off here and there and that could happen again across the next fortnight. Dropping any game from now leaves them open to being pipped at the post by Brisbane.

2. BRONCOS

Won: 17, Lost: 5, Drawn: 0, Points: 38, Points Differential: 213

Broncos’ run home

R25: Bye

R26: Raiders at GIO Stadium (W)

R27: Storm at Suncorp Stadium (W)

Predicted finish: 2nd, (19-5)

The Broncos are simply flying. Their emphatic win against Parramatta shows just how far above the rest of the competition they are (along with Penrith) right at the pinnacle of the season. They now have a bye before they face Canberra and then Melbourne in a game that could decide the minor premiership as well as Storm’s spot in the top four.

3. WARRIORS

Won: 14, Lost: 7, Drawn: 0, Points: 34, Points Differential: 129

Warriors’ run home

R25: Sea Eagles at Go Media Stadium (W)

R26: Dragons at Go Media Stadium (W)

R27: Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium (W)

Predicted finish: 3rd, (17-7)

And so the Warriors keep on winning, and that’s all they need to do to finish in the top four for the first time since 2007. They’ve got two more games in New Zealand before taking on the Dolphins at Suncorp in the last round.

4. STORM

Won: 13, Lost: 8, Drawn: 0, Points: 32 Points Differential: 127

Storm’s run home

R25: Dragons at WIN Stadium (W)

R26: Titans at AAMI Park (W)

R27: Broncos at Suncorp Stadium (L)

Predicted finish: 5th, (15-9)

A massive win against Canberra helped Melbourne bounce back from their loss to Penrith the week before and ignite a push for a top four finish. Cronulla is nipping at their heels so it could come down to the final round against Brisbane at home to secure a second chance in the finals.

5. SHARKS

Won: 12, Lost: 9, Drawn: 0, Points: 30, Points Differential: 110

Sharks’ run home

R25: Cowboys at Queensland Country Bank Stadium (W)

R26: Knights at McDonald Jones Stadium (W)

R27: Raiders at PointsBet Stadium (W)

Predicted finish: 4th, (15-9)

The Sharks have been patchy across the entire season but they’ve managed to string together two good wins in a row. They haven’t won more than three games on the trot the whole season, but with a top four spot on the line they should give it a push. A win against Canberra in the final round could determine it if they can overcome the Knights and Cowboys away.

6. RAIDERS

Won: 12, Lost: 9, Drawn: 0, Points: 30, Points Differential: -120

Raiders’ run home

R25: Bulldogs at GIO Stadium (W)

R26: Broncos at GIO Stadium (L)

R27: Sharks at PointsBet Stadium (L)

Predicted finish: 8th, (13-11)

Ricky Stuart was livid after a heavy loss to Melbourne on Sunday and rightly so. Their season is on life support now. They should bounce back against the Bulldogs but then face Brisbane and then Cronulla, which will have big finals configuration consequences.

7. KNIGHTS

Won: 11, Lost: 9, Drawn: 1, Points: 29, Points Differential: 110

Knights’ run home

R25: Rabbitohs at McDonald Jones Stadium (W)

R26: Sharks at McDonald Jones Stadium (L)

R27: Dragons at Netstrata Jubilee Stadium (W)

Predicted finish: 6th, (13-1-10)

The Knights have now won six games in a row and are one of the form teams of the competition coming into the finals. Losing Jackson Hastings to an ankle injury now could be a disaster with two danger games against the Rabbitohs and Sharks at home across the next fortnight.

8. RABBITOHS

Won: 12, Lost: 10, Drawn: 0, Points: 28, Points Differential: 92

Rabbitohs’ run home

R25: Knights at McDonald Jones Stadium (L)

R26: Bye

R27: Roosters at Accor Stadium (W)

Predicted finish: 7th, (13-11)

They’re pottering along without setting the world alight and it might just be enough to sneak into the finals. They’ll face an important test against the Knights in Newcastle this week, followed by a bye and then arch rivals the Roosters at home, who are also desperate to cling to finals hopes. One win out of the two games could get them there.

9. COWBOYS

Won: 11, Lost: 10, Drawn: 0, Points: 28, Points Differential: 32

Cowboys’ run home

R25: Sharks at Queensland Country Bank Stadium (L)

R26: Dolphins at Suncorp Stadium (W)

R27: Panthers at BlueBet Stadium (L)

Predicted finish: 9th, (12-12)

Last week’s bye is a huge plus for the Cowboys who now face a desperate Sharks side, the Dolphins in Brisbane and then a dreaded trip to Penrith in the last round. If they can win two out of their last three games they’re a chance.

10. EELS

Won: 11, Lost: 11, Drawn: 0, Points: 26, Points Differential: 21

Eels’ run home

R25: Roosters at CommBank Stadium (L)

R26: Panthers at BlueBet Stadium (L)

R27: Bye

Predicted finish: 12th, (11-13)

Things are getting worse for the Eels as the weeks go on. A huge loss to Brisbane, plus losing Mitch Moses for the rest of the season is just the double blow they didn’t need. It dropped them from ninth to 10th on the ladder, and now they need to beat the Roosters and Penrith and rely on other results to go their way to have a hope.

11. ROOSTERS

Won: 10, Lost: 11, Drawn: 0, Points: 26, Points Differential: -84

Roosters’ run home

R25: Eels at CommBank Stadium (W)

R26: Wests Tigers at Allianz Stadium (W)

R27: South Sydney at Accor Stadium (L)

Predicted finish: 10th, (12-12)

They’re still technically alive in the competition but need other results to go their way with the log jam of teams on 28 points. They will need to win all their last three games, including against a desperate South Sydney side in the final round.

12. SEA EAGLES

Won: 9, Lost: 11, Drawn: 1, Points: 25, Points Differential: -47

Sea Eagles’ run home

R25: Warriors at Go Media Stadium (L)

R26: Bulldogs at Accor Stadium (W)

R27: Wests Tigers at 4 Pines Park (W)

Predicted finish: 11th, (11-1-12)

They fought hard against the Panthers but it was always going to be tough to make the finals from here for Manly. A big road trip to New Zealand will ultimately be either the nail in the coffin or permission to keep the dream alive.

Originally published as NRL round 25 run home: Every game and final ladder prediction, and the four teams to decide top 8