NRL post-mortem: Why bottom nine sides didn’t make finals in 2024 and how they can in 2025
With nine NRL teams missing finals and bidding farewell to the 2024 season, we conduct a post-mortem on what went wrong and why there’s hope for the next year.
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Losing something is never easy.
The same goes with watching another season slip down the gurgler with no premiership to show for it.
For eight lucky clubs this is the best time of year, but for the also-rans, there’s more work to be done.
Now that 2024 has flatlined for nine teams, we take a look at how and why, as well as why there’s always next season.
RAIDERS
Why they didn’t make it: Big things weren’t expected of the Raiders after losing Jack Wighton to the Rabbitohs, but they unearthed some outstanding young talent in Ethan Strange who slotted straight into the halves.
They won six of their first 10 games and sat just inside the top eight after a 24-20 win over the Bulldogs in round 11, but they steadily slipped down the ladder while Jamal Fogarty was injured, winning just three games while he would out between rounds 7 and 20.
However, they recovered enough to remain in finals contention in the last round (albeit faintly).
Reason for revival: There’s a new era brewing at the Raiders with Elliott Whitehead and Jordan Rapana both moving on and the emergence of young talent through the system.
Strange will have another season under his belt, as will Kaeo Weekes and incoming playmaker Ethan Sanders.
DOLPHINS
Why they didn’t make it: The Dolphins had a soft draw to start the season but they made the most of it, sitting in the top four until round 15 with a win over Cronulla.
They’re the little team that could, but fell at the final hurdle with just two ins in their past eight games, including two close losses to Penrith and Gold Coast which they should have won.
Reason for hope: Life without Wayne Bennett is a huge worry, but there is a stack of talent in the squad.
Rising star Trai Fuller has given fans plenty to be excited about, as well as the development of Isaiya Katoa and Max Plath.
DRAGONS
Why they didn’t make it: St George Illawarra were one of the favourites for the wooden spoon, so to finish higher up the ladder with finals potential is a huge improvement.
New coach Shane Flanagan has instilled a better playing style and mindset within the squad, which had led to 11 wins, including a shock victory over Melbourne that kept their season alive.
But when push came to shove, they lost their last three games against Sharks, Eels and Raiders, coughing up 108 points in the most embarrassing of fashions.
Reason for hope: They’ve recruited well.
The Dragons lose Zac Lomax to the Eels and Jack Bird to the Tigers, but Queensland star Valentine Holmes will fill the void (including kicking duties) and Souths hooker Damien Cook will provide more experience.
Miracles rarely happen in one season, but the expectations are higher in 2025.
BRONCOS
Why they didn’t make it: They came so close to the premiership and then fell so far.
They started the season as favourites to end Penrith’s long-running reign at the top, with most assuming they would only get better after finishing so close.
But the opposite is true, and they blew several chances to reignite it, including losing six of their last seven home games. The post-mortems on this one will be thorough.
But to sum it up, over inflated egos, mass injuries and diminished ambition created chaos in Brisbane.
Reason for revival: The roster.
They haven’t made any significant signings but they have a squad full of wonderful, young players who have in no way reached their peak yet.
This season was a reality check they needed.
WARRIORS
Why they didn’t make it: A crash back to reality was entirely unexpected this season after all the romance and success of 2023.
Halfback Shaun Johnson battled injuries that kept him far below his form of last season, while they only won four of nine home games at Go Media Stadium.
The urgency and momentum of 2023 had evaporated, which ended any hopes of a fairytale finish for club legend Johnston.
Reason for revival: The addition of James Fisher-Harris will fill the sizeable gap left by Addin Fonua-Blake, who is off to Cronulla in 2025.
But with him comes leadership of a winning culture, which is precisely what the Warriors need to go to the next level.
TITANS
Why they didn’t make it: Des Hasler’s first season at the club was a flurry of excitement early, but after a big loss to the Dragons in round 1, they lost skipper Tino Fa’asuamaleaui the following week to an ACL injury which brought everything undone.
They didn’t win a game until round 8. It would take time for Hasler’s changes to make an impact on the field, and once they kicked in it was too little, too late.
Reason for revival: There have been glimpses of the tide turning under Hasler’s leadership and there’s every reason to believe the worst days are behind them.
Fa’asuamaleaui’s return to the field will help immensely.
EELS
Why they didn’t make it: The Eels were dealt a rough hand this season.
A large chunk of their salary cap sat sidelined through injury, but they won three of their first six games before everything went pear-shaped.
The issue is they’ve only won three games since. It cost Brad Arthur his job after a decade in the role, which has led to a looming shake up of the roster under new coach Jason Ryles next season.
It’s all necessary to find the kind of success the club has craved for almost 40 years since their last premiership, which collects another layer of pressure with every lap of the sun.
Reason for revival: As a rookie coach no one is sure of what Jason Ryles will bring to Parramatta, but as long as it’s change, that could be enough.
The addition of Zac Lomax will add more class and speed to the backline, while Dylan Brown’s positive injury news means he could be on deck to start the year alongside Mitch Moses.
RABBITOHS
Why they didn’t make it: Coach Jason Demetriou started the season under a mountain of pressure after a rough end to 2023, while rumours persisted that not everything was rosy within the playing group.
With Jack Wighton sidelined for the first few rounds, they won just one game in their first 10 which was the death knell for Demetriou considering the roster at hand.
Mass injuries and the occasional costly suspension followed, while Latrell Mitchell’s on-again off-again season was unproductive.
Reason for revival: Wayne Bennett will swoop in and save the club.
The Dolphins coach has a secret, magical language to get the best out of players, and that’s ultimately what’s missing at Souths. Players at their best.
TIGERS
Why they didn’t make it: There was a short-lived glimmer of hope that the Tigers could find some improvement this season, but that vanished pretty soon after the first few rounds.
After winning two of their first three games, they lost nine straight from round five onwards as ill discipline kept them rooted to the bottom of the ladder.
A rookie coach in Benji Marshall, a less than acceptable contribution from senior players and a sprinkle of inconvenient injuries all contributed to the resulting mess.
Wooden spoon is now a dirty phrase in Tiger Town.
Reason for revival: Jarome Luai.
The Penrith champion brings with him a swell of hope things will change.
His gravitas will help them attract more players, but more importantly, win games.
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Originally published as NRL post-mortem: Why bottom nine sides didn’t make finals in 2024 and how they can in 2025
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