NRL Finals: Predicting which teams will play finals and which will miss the cut
The Sea Eagles are right in the thick of teams competing to solidify themselves in the top eight, but the Manly side have a massive advantage over their rivals. PAMELA WHALEY analyses the run home for every side.
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The Dragons have breathed new life into their NRL finals hopes, while the Knights and Titans need a miracle to make it.
With just five weeks to go until the play offs, there’s just five points separating seventh and 12th.
But this is where a momentum and the luck of the draw comes into play.
We’ve crunched the numbers and found the teams with a big advantage to finish the season, those who won’t be so lucky and the teams who might just sneak into the finals after a wild ride.
MELBOURNE STORM
Current position: 1st (36 points, 15 wins, 4 losses, 3 byes, +157 points differential)
Whaley’s prediction: 2nd (44pts, 19 wins, 5 losses)
Run home: Rabbitohs (w), Panthers (l), Dolphins (w), Cowboys (w), Broncos (w)
Verdict: A shock loss to the Dragons has opened up the race for the minor premiership with Penrith breathing down their neck to finish on top. It was the biggest upset of the season so far and has exposed them as vulnerable in their clash with Penrith in a fortnight, which will now likely decide the top two finish. Xavier Coates could be back on the field for that game which will be a handy boost.
PENRITH PANTHERS
Current position: 2nd (34 points, 14 wins, 5 losses 3 byes, +162pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 1st (44pts, 19 wins, 5 losses)
Run home: Eels (w), Storm (w), Raiders (w), Rabbitohs (w), Titans (w)
Verdict: They look simply unstoppable, again. The Knights came close on Sunday but by now Penrith are the masters of this part of the season and it will be nothing but wins from here on out. Now that Melbourne have tripped up, a third-straight minor premiership is in their sights. As an added advantage they don’t need, they have three home games to finish the year and their only trip out of Sydney is to Canberra.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Current position: 3rd (30 points, 13 wins, 7 losses, 2 byes, +219pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 3rd (40pts, 17 wins, 7 losses)
Run home: Bye, Eels (w), Titans (w), Raiders (w), Rabbitohs (w)
Verdict: After a loss to Melbourne in round 20 the Roosters have given up 64 points in two games, including 34 against the Dolphins, which is the most amount of points they’ve leaked all season. The two-game total conceded points is also higher than the five weeks leading into the Storm match combined. They have the bye this weekend and will need it to refresh if they’re to fix the defensive issues that threaten a title chance.
CRONULLA SHARKS
Current position: 4th (30 points, 12 wins, 7 losses, 3 byes, +131pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 6th (34pts, 14 wins, 10 losses)
Run home: Titans (l), Knights (l), Dragons (w), Warriors (w), Sea Eagles (l)
Verdict: The Sharks are spluttering to the finish line and will need to find momentum now if they’re to make a go of it in the finals. A win over South Sydney helps, but it was just their second in six weeks as they battle with a big injury toll. They face the Titans, who beat them just a month ago in Coffs Harbour, on the Gold Coast this week followed by a desperate Knights and Dragons into a horror visit to Brookvale Oval to face Manly in the last round of the regular season.
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS
Current position: 5th (28 points, 11 wins, 8 losses, 3 byes, +92pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 5th (36pts, 15 wins, 9 losses)
Run home: Dragons (w), Dolphins (w), Warriors (w), Sea Eagles (l), Cowboys (w)
Verdict: The Bulldogs have made believers out of the biggest of cynics with back-to-back wins over Brisbane and Canberra, and they’ve now lost just two games since round 11. They come into the final five weeks of the competition with a dangerous momentum, which could knock out other finals hopefuls Dragons and Dolphins over the next fortnight. Manly then Cowboys combo before finals is their biggest test, but they face them both at Accor Stadium which should be absolutely pumping in their favour.
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS
Current position: 6th (28pts, 12 wins, 8 losses, 2 byes, +29pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 7th (34pts, 14 wins, 10 losses)
Run home: Broncos (w), Raiders (w), bye, Storm (l), Bulldogs (l)
Verdict: They’ve now won three in a row but after leaking 30 points to the Tigers it’s apparent the Cowboys need to work on their defence, which is their next challenge before finals hit. They have the steam to keep winning into the round 25 bye, before they face Melbourne and the Bulldogs in Sydney in the last round. It’ll be their first venture away from home between now and then. Rueben Cotter is expected back from a head knock against the Broncos this week, which will help, while Heilum Luki and Jake Granville are both in doubt.
MANLY SEA EAGLES
Current position: 7th (27 points, 10 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw, 3 byes, +93pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 4th (37pts, 15 wins, 8 losses, 1 draw)
Run home: Raiders (w), Warriors (w), Tigers (w), Bulldogs (w), Sharks (w)
Verdict: Fresh from a bye the Sea Eagles will be ready to attack the last five games with Haumole Olakau’atu back from a suspension as well as Reuben Garrick and Jason Saab a chance to return against the Raiders. After a trip to Canberra this week they don’t leave Sydney again before finals, which includes two home games at 4 Pines Park against the Warriors and Cronulla. With Turbo, DCE and Luke Brooks firing they can go on a winning streak from here.
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS
Current position: 8th (26 points, 10 wins, 9 losses, 3 byes, -90pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 9th (30pts, 12 wins, 12 losses)
Run home: Bulldogs (l), Titans (w), Sharks (l), Eels (w), Raiders (l)
Verdict: The Dragons shocked the competition by beating Melbourne in Melbourne, breathing life into their finals chances, which appeared non-existent the week before. From here, they just need to keep winning. If 32 points will be enough to make the top eight they need at least three wins over the last five weeks, which is entirely doable if they’re able to string together back-to-back wins for the first time since rounds 13-14.
DOLPHINS
Current position: 9th (24 points, 9 wins, 10 losses, 3 byes, +33pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 10th (28pts, 11 wins, 13 losses)
Run home: Warriors (w), Bulldogs (l), Storm (l), Broncos (w), Knights (l)
Verdict: The Dolphins have now lost their last three games, and have won just two since round 12. Across the past three weeks they’ve coughed up the six points on offer with tight games, including two they should have iced against Penrith and Gold Coast. It was clear they had a touch draw at the start of the season but now it’s really settling in. They still face the Bulldogs, Broncos and Storm on the run home and need to win four of their last five to make a maiden finals appearance.
CANBERRA RAIDERS
Current position: 10th (24 points, 9 wins, 10 losses, 3 byes, -75pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 11th (26pts, 10 wins, 14 losses)
Run home: Sea Eagles (l), Cowboys (l), Panthers (l), Roosters (l), Dragons (w)
Verdict: Back-to-back wins put the Raiders into finals contention again coming into last week, and they pushed the Bulldogs all the way in a gallant loss at Belmore Oval on Sunday. From here though, it will be an uphill battle to make the top eight. They need to win all of their last five games against teams higher than them on the ladder, including Manly pushing for top four, and title contenders Penrith and the Roosters.
GOLD COAST TITANS
Current position: 11th (22 points, 8 wins, 11 losses, 3 byes, -54 pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 12th (24pts, 9 wins, 15 losses)
Run home: Sharks (w), Dragons (l), Roosters (l), Knights (l), Panthers (l)
Verdict: The Titans have finally caught fire but it’s more than likely too late given what lies ahead of them. Des Hasler’s side have now won two in a row and five of their last six games to give themselves a chance, but close losses to Tigers, Knights, Storm and Raiders early in the year are coming back to bite them now. They can grab a few more wins, but games against the Roosters and Panthers will most likely to trip up their finals hopes.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS
Current position: 12th (22 points, 8 wins, 11 losses, 3 byes, -105pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 8th (32pts, 13 wins, 11 losses)
Run home: Tigers (w), Sharks (w), Rabbitohs (w), Titans (w), Dolphins (w)
Verdict: They pushed Penrith most of the way on Sunday but need to create something special across the last five weeks to make finals. Out of every team currently outside the top eight, they have the draw to do it. They face Tigers, Titans and Dolphins in Newcastle, as well as Cronulla in Cronulla and the Rabbitohs at Accor Stadium. Just one loss will rule them out.
WARRIORS
Current position: 13th (21 points, 8 wins, 11 losses, 1 draw, 2 byes, -32pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 14th (23pts, 8 wins, 12 losses, 1 draw)
Run home: Dolphins (l), Sea Eagles (l), Bulldogs (l), Sharks (l), bye
Verdict: A shock loss to Parramatta ended their finals hopes for good over the weekend, and it can go one of two ways from here. Their last four games are winnable on their day, but with no finals position to play for they’ll need to find their motivation from somewhere else against teams still alive in September. Giving Shaun Johnson the send off he deserves with a few wins to round off his career might do the trick.
BRISBANE BRONCOS
Current position: 14th (20 points, 8 wins, 12 losses, 2 byes, -28dp)
Whaley’s prediction: 15th (22pts, 8 wins, 16 losses)
Run home: Cowboys (l), bye, Eels (l), Dolphins (l), Storm (l)
Verdict: The Broncos join fellow grand finalists of the past three years down the bottom of the ladder, scrambling to recapture some success as a club. A loss to the Titans was a particularly low moment – costly too with Payne Haas (foot) and Ezra Mam (ankle) both expected to miss some big game time. They’ve now won just one game since round 12 and don’t look like winning another. It’s a demoralising finish.
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS
Current position: 15th (20 points, 7 wins, 12 losses, 3 byes, -124pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 13th (22pts, 8 wins, 16 losses)
Run home: Storm (l), Tigers (w), Knights (l), Panthers (l), Roosters (l)
Verdict: Souths have a tough draw to finish the year in what has been one of their most difficult seasons in recent history. They still have enough class in the team to snatch a win or two, but that’s optimistic. Cody Walker is in doubt to play at Accor Stadium on Thursday night against a Melbourne side stinging from a last-round loss to the Dragons. Ouch.
PARRAMATTA EELS
Current position: 16th (16 points, 5 wins, 14 losses, 3 byes, -161pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 16th (20pts, 7 wins, 17 losses)
Run home: Panthers (l), Roosters (l), Broncos (w), Dragons (l), Tigers (w)
Verdict: It’s been a season from hell for the Eels who are dealing with a mass injury toll, an impending coaching turnover and big changes on the horizon. But if players want to prove they deserve to stay beyond next year, now is the time to show it. A win over the Warriors in New Zealand was a good sign, and they can scrape together a few more across the last five weeks if they can muster that cohesion again.
WESTS TIGERS
Current position: 17th (12 points, 4 wins, 16 losses, 2 byes, -247 pd)
Whaley’s prediction: 17th (14pts, 4 wins, 20 losses)
Run home: Knights (l), Rabbitohs (l), Sea Eagles (l), bye, Eels (l)
Verdict: A third-straight wooden spoon is incoming for the Tigers, who are stranded at the bottom of the ladder yet again. To avoid another awful piece of history, they will need to beat the Eels in round 27 as well as jag another win between now and then, while hoping Parramatta don’t win another game. It’s close to impossible.
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