NRL 2023 crystal ball: Every club’s win tally for 2023 predicted, vote to have your say

TAB have released their lines on every club’s win total in 2023, and the Broncos look to be the wildcard of the season, with a big disparity between their floor and ceiling. Check out every team’s win totals here.

How many games will your team win in 2023?

TAB has set the line market for every club and our expert David Riccio has his say on who will rise and who will fall this season. Panthers

PENRITH

2022: 20 wins

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: -17.5 wins

VERDICT: Under

The champions won their opening eight games in 2022, losing their first game in round nine, before winning their next nine matches. I just can’t see that level of dominance in 2023 without Api Koroisau and Viliame Kikau. The Origin period will also have a greater impact than ever before on Penrith. Unlike previous seasons, the key duo – particularly Kikau – won’t be around to hold the fort while the big guns are off playing for NSW. Back-up half Sean O’Sullivan and cover for Nathan Cleary has also left the club. Sixteen wins achieved a top-four finish last year and that’s where I see Penrith finishing. The loss to the Broncos in the season opener doesn’t help.

ROOSTERS

2022: 15 wins

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 16.5

VERDICT: Over

The TAB are suggesting the Roosters will win one more match than what they did last year. I’ll happily take that on. At full-strength, the Roosters boast one of the strongest rosters in the NRL. The increased development from 24 NRL games of experience of Joseph Suaalii is frightening. The addition of Brandon Smith and the dummy-half cover of Jake Turpin, is astute. Halfback Sam Walker is about to notch up 50 NRL games. They’ve got a physical pack – hello, Victor Radley – and of course, the best fullback in the world in James Tedesco.

STORM

2022: 15 wins

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 15.5

VERDICT:Under

You have to go back eight-years to 2015 (14 wins) to find a Storm team that finished a season with less than 15 wins. And although they were gutsy in beating the Eels in the season-opener on Thursday night, I suspect that sensational form will be tested this year. I‘ve got the Storm making the top-eight, but it won’t be easy with 1,000 games worth of NRL experience departing the club in the likes of the Bromwich brothers, Felise Kaufusi and Brandon Smith. Melbourne also won’t see Ryan Papenhuyzen until mid-year, if at all. Now Xavier Coates is sidelined for an extended period.

RABBITOHS

2022 wins: 14

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 14.5

VERDICT: Over

My tip to make the grand final. Think about this, the Rabbitohs finished seventh with 14 wins last year. Yet within their 10 losses were beatings by the Wests Tigers, Dragons, Broncos and Raiders. So ask yourself this, will the Bunnies be beating those four teams this year? I’m confident they will, with improvement from 12-months under the direction of coach Jason Demetriou and the experience of a full season under the belt of halfback Lachlan Ilias.

COWBOYS

2022 wins: 17

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 14.5

VERDICT: Under

What will the pressure of expectation do to the Cowboys? Does their rich list of rising stars have the mental steel to handle the hype? Do they have the leaders to steer some of the game‘s best young talent through a second season, when they are now the hunted? The Cowboys have a terrific blend of speed and power, but unlike last year when nobody gave them a chance, they now have a target on their back.

SHARKS

2022 wins: 18

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 14.5

VERDICT: Over

The Sharks finished second in 2022, their highest-placed finish since 1999. History suggests their 18 wins will be difficult to replicate in 2023, particularly when you consider that their key spine members including Nicho Hynes, Matt Moylan and Blayke Brailey played no less than 24-games each last year. Already, the Sharks have begun the season without Hynes. They are a top-four side, but may fall just short of repeating the 18 wins of last year.

EELS

2022 wins: 16

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 13.5

VERDICT: Under

The TAB took an advantage in meeting their target of just under 14 wins this year for the Eels when they were pipped by the Storm on Thursday night. With Moses, Paulo, Gutherson, Brown and Hodgson, the Eels have enough class to be playing finals footy. But matching last year‘s 16 wins to finish fourth will be a challenge with so many key personnel changes in their pack.

BRONCOS

2022 wins: 13

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 13.5

VERDICT: Under

TAB traders fear the Broncos as the wildcards — they could challenge for the top four or miss the top eight entirely. And depending on the result, it could be a blow for the bookmaker.

Similar to the line the TAB have set, I see the Broncos having an identical season (13 wins) to 2022, which will fall just short of the top eight, and just under the predicted win total. They look super strong on paper, but the lack of a dominant hooker and a five-eighth position that the Broncos routinely put on high rotation leads to a lack of consistency in their results.

RAIDERS

2022: 14 wins

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 12.5

VERDICT: Over

They may not boast the competition’s most celebrated roster, but the Raiders are a well-coached, well-drilled and dangerous footy team. Not many coaches look forward to playing the Raiders, particularly in the nation’s capital. They have made the finals three times out of the last four for a reason. Yet the biggest attraction to why the Raiders can prove the TAB’s over-under line wrong is that they boast the best draw in the competition. The Raiders will play last season’s top eight teams just eight times in 2023, easily the fewest games of any team.

BULLDOGS

2022 wins: 7

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 11.5

VERDICT: Under

The excitement surrounding the Bulldogs is justified. Change is happening within the walls of Belmore, with the club benefiting from the cultural awareness of coach Cameron Ciraldo. Bringing a team together is the rookie coach‘s greatest strength. But already we’re seeing that there’s still work to be done with the roster following the loss to injury of Luke Thompson and Tevita Pangai Jr. The pack depth suddenly looks stretched. I expect them to finish with close to 11 wins and to be just outside the top eight.

SEA EAGLES

2022 wins: 9

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 11.5

VERDICT: Over

My big improvers for 2023. The club have two strong coaches at their disposal in Anthony Seibold and Shane Flanagan to get the best out of a strong roster that boasts speed, power and elite-level game management in the shape of Daly Cherry-Evans. Last year was a write-off for Manly. But on the premise that Tom Trbojevic stays fit, the Sea Eagles can win at least six more games than last year.

WESTS TIGERS

2022 wins: 4

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 9.5

VERDICT: Under

Will we see a more dangerous, more unified and spirited Tigers outfit in 2023, I say absolutely. The Tigers have made no secret of their attack, attack, attack focus, but can that be sustained for an entire season? Time will tell. They’ll cause some upsets and get rid of the wooden spoon from last year, but nine wins and just outside the eight is where I’ve got them.

WARRIORS

2022: 6 wins

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 8.5

VERDICT: Under

Playing back on home soil will help and so too will be some key recruits in Marata Niukore, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Luke Metcalf. But the Warriors quickly run thin as far as their depth is concerned and Shaun Johnson is getting any older. They may be able to improve marginally on their six wins from last season, but only just.

TITANS

2022 wins: 6

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 8.5

VERDICT: Under

What the Titans need is a fast start to the year. Last year was diabolic, winning just three of 20 games to start the season. Those hopes took a major dent on Thursday when one of the brightest prospects, Beau Fermor, suffered a season-ending knee injury. This is a club that can‘t afford to be reaching into their depth before a ball has been kicked. It drops away quickly. The acquisition of Kieran Foran will straighten them up in attack, but 2023 looks like a case of more of the same for the Coast.

KNIGHTS

2022 wins: 6

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 7.5

VERDICT: Over

Two things worry me with the Knights and it’s their defence and how their spine was cobbled together just in time for kick-off, with fullback Lachie Miller arriving less than a month before the trials. The Knights lost 15 of their 18 games last year by double figures. That must improve. However, what drags me into the overs is their first six rounds where they play just one top eight team from 2022. Their loss against the Warriors is a blow.

DRAGONS

2022 wins: 12

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 7.5

VERDICT: Under

For the sake of Dragons fans, I‘m happy to be proven wrong, but this is shaping up as a horror season. With playmaker Junior Amone stood down by the NRL and fullback Cody Ramsey unfortunately sidelined due to illness, the Dragons are down to a second-choice spine before a ball has been kicked. Their starting pack is devoid of any fear factor and there’s an over reliance in Ben Hunt when they attack. St George-Illawarra have never won the wooden spoon, but sadly, history could be made in 2023.

DOLPHINS

2022 wins: N/A

TAB projected 2023 season-win tally: – 5.5

VERDICT: Under

Anything over five wins would be a successful season for the NRL‘s new franchise. But I can’t see it. On paper, they aren’t a bad side with enough NRL experience, particularly in their pack led by Jesse Bromwich, to go toe-to-toe in the middle, with the majority of teams. It’s in the halves, out wide and when injuries hit that The Dolphins will have their issues.

Originally published as NRL 2023 crystal ball: Every club’s win tally for 2023 predicted, vote to have your say