NRL 2023: Breakdown of round 24 games and what the results mean for race to the top eight

Every game in round 24 has a bearing on the top-eight race. With very little margin for error, the post-season picture is set for a massive shake-up. Which teams will lock in a finals spot?

There’s a logjam of teams fighting for the top eight and every week it’s getting clearer.

Heading into round 24 there’s still seven teams battling for the last four spots in the top eight, while the all important top four is still up for grabs, too.

Every game this week has ramifications that will impact premiership hopes across the competition.

Here’s the breakdown.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles (11th, 25pts, PD-35) v Penrith Panthers (1st, 36pts, PD+277)

Thursday 7.50pm, 4 Pines Park

Last time: RD6, 2023, BlueBet Stadium: Panthers 44 Sea Eagles 12

Recent form: The Panthers have won their past six games and look virtually untouchable at full-strength. Their 26-6 drubbing of Melbourne proved again they’re the best team in the competition by a long way. Manly, however, have struggled to find any consistency, never stringing more than two wins together at a time. Across the past month they’ve beaten Cronulla and St George Illawarra, but losses to the Roosters and North Queensland have stifled any momentum. They haven’t been in the top eight since Round 13 back in May.

Player availability: Matt Lodge’s ACL was added to the list of season-ending injuries for the Sea Eagles, which includes Tom Trbojevic and Josh Aloiai. They get some help upfront though with Sean Keppie returning from back spasms. Mitch Kenny and Jarome Luai (illness) are both late exclusions for the Panthers, who are also without Tyrone Peachey (suspended) and Izack Tago (leg).

TAB odds: Sea Eagles $7.50, Panthers $1.06

Consequences: The Sea Eagles are barely clinging onto their finals hopes after a loss to the Roosters last week, which would have made the next few weeks a lot easier. To stay alive in the hunt for the top eight, Manly need to do the almost impossible and beat Penrith at Brookvale, or the Warriors in New Zealand next weekend. Both would be ideal. On top of that, they have to beat the Bulldogs and the Wests Tigers in the final two rounds to still remain a chance plus wait for results to fall their way.

The Panthers are charging towards their third minor premiership in four years, but are neck and neck with the Broncos at the top of the ladder. The Broncos have a bye in hand too, but if both teams cruise through the last four rounds undefeated, Penrith’s astronomical for and against will get them across the line in first – again.

Prediction: Panthers by 20

Predicted season finishes: Sea Eagles 11th (11-1-12), Panthers 1st (18-6)

Nathan Cleary is leading Penrith’s charge to the minor premiership. Picture: Jason McCawley/Getty

Cronulla Sharks (6th, 28pts, PD+80) v Gold Coast Titans (13th, 22pts, PD-53)

Friday, 6pm, PointsBet Stadium

Last time: RD15, 2022, C.ex Coffs International Stadium, Coffs Harbour: Sharks 18 Titans 10

Recent form: A 26-16 win against South Sydney last week breathed life back into their form and put a halt to a three-game losing streak. But it’s been a worrying plummet for the Sharks who were second on the ladder at the end of May and have slowly slipped to sixth. The Titans, however, have had moments of inspiration recently that shows they have an upset in them. They lost to the Eels by just a point in Round 20 and scored a boilover win against North Queensland in Round 22.

Player availability: Titans skipper Tino Fa‘asuamaleaui returns from suspension and replaces Moeaki Fotuaika upfront. AJ Brimson is still battling a rib injury, while hooker Sam Verrills will miss the rest of the season with the club opting to send him for a shoulder clean-out. Ronaldo Mulitalo returns on the wing for the Sharks, which will be a big help to the strike of the side already missing fullback Will Kennedy (hamstring) for the next few weeks.

TAB Odds: Sharks $1.30, Titans $3.50

Consequences: There are no finals consequences for the Titans unless they’re dishing them out. The Sharks have been so inconsistent of late that the Titans can be a real danger side if they’re not taken seriously. The Sharks have Cowboys, Knights and Raiders to finish off the season – all teams vying for the top eight – and they’ll need to win at least three of them to be assured a spot in the finals. A loss to the Titans means their season will be on the line in all three games to end the year.

Prediction: Sharks by 4

Predicted season finishes: Sharks 5th (14-10), Titans 13th (9-15)

Brisbane Broncos (2nd, 36pts, PD+169) v Parramatta Eels (9th, 26pts, PD+65) 

Friday 8pm, The Gabba

Last time: RD8, 2023, TIO Stadium, Darwin: Broncos 26 Eels 16

Recent form: The Broncos have won their past five games convincingly, but last week’s 30-14 victory over the Cowboys without Adam Reynolds was perhaps the most affirming sign they are premiership material. However, the Eels have struggled with any consistency with suspensions and injuries forcing changes to the team across the entire season. That lack of stability has shown in the grand finalists’ form too, winning just two of their last five games.

Player availability: Broncos captain Adam Reynolds has been named to start after missing last week’s win against the Cowboys with a groin issue. Kobe Hetherington is also set to return from a back injury, which will have the Broncos nearing full strength for the last few rounds of the year. The Eels are still without Maika Sivo and Reagan Campbell-Gillard (both suspended) as well as Shaun Lane (elbow), which is still causing tweaks to the squad each week. Whiz kid Daejarn Asi has been named in the centres against the Broncos, with Bailey Simonsson moved to the wing and dummy half Brendan Hands again on the bench.

TAB odds: Broncos $1.28, Eels $3.60

Consequences: The Broncos are still a chance of claiming the minor premiership if they continue winning should Penrith happen to drop a game in the final four weeks of the competition. But the Eels are fighting for a place in the top eight and desperately need to show that they belong there. They haven’t beaten a top eight side since North Queensland in round 13, and now only have three games to play (the Broncos, Roosters and Panthers) before a bye in round 27. A loss in this one could force them out of finals calculations altogether.

Prediction: Broncos by 16

Predicted season finishes: Broncos 2nd (18-6), Eels 10th (12-12)

Parramatta could go from grand finalists to out of the eight. Picture: Brett Hemmings/Getty

South Sydney Rabbitohs (8th, 26pts, PD+80) v St George Illawarra Dragons (16th, 16pts, PD-145)

Saturday 3pm, Barlow Park, Cairns

Last time: RD15, 2023, Netstrata Jubilee Stadium: Dragons 36 Rabbitohs 30

Recent form: The return of Latrell Mitchell hasn’t had the expected impact on South Sydney and they’ve steadily been sliding down the ladder with just two wins from their last seven games. They include losses to the Bulldogs and the Dragons, as well as last week’s crucial 26-16 loss to Cronulla. On the other hand, the Dragons have only won five games this year. The last one was against Wests Tigers in round 21, but they pushed the Eels hard for a six-point loss last week.

Player availability: Souths are close to full strength but will miss Tom Burgess for the rest of the regular season who accepted a three-match ban for a careless high tackle. The Dragons have a mass of injuries, with Zac Lomax (shoulder), Jack Bird (shoulder) and Francis Molo (concussion) all missing this week to add to the growing casualty ward. Centre Moses Suli has been named to return from a calf injury.

TAB odds: Rabbitohs $1.11, Dragons $6.50

Consequences: The Rabbitohs are clinging to the top eight and need to turn their form around fast with a convincing win to help build confidence. They have a decent draw to finish against the Dragons, Knights and Roosters as well as a bye in the second-last round. A loss could see them out of the top eight by the end of the weekend. All the Dragons can salvage from this season is a bit of hope for 2024 as they build towards a new start under Shane Flanagan.

Prediction: Rabbitohs by 10

Predicted season finishes: Rabbitohs 8th (13-11), Dragons 16th (5-19)

Is another upset on the cards in Cairns? Picture: NRL Images

Wests Tigers (17th, 12pts, PD-217) v Warriors (3rd, 32pts, PD+121)

Saturday 5.30pm, FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton

Last time: RD16, 2022, Go Media Stadium, Auckland: Warriors 22 Tigers 2

Recent form: The Warriors are on a four-game winning streak and looking to make it five. Their form has been the biggest surprise of the season to date, with important recent wins against top eight sides Canberra and Cronulla helping their top four chances with four rounds left to play. The Tigers have had a season to forget. A loss on Saturday will make it 10 in a row for the bottom-placed side, but to be fair, they have looked a far better team since Api Koroisau returned from a broken jaw in round 20.

Player availability: Fullback Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad will miss this week against the Tigers with a head knock, otherwise the Warriors remain unchanged from round 23. The Tigers welcome back Stefano Utoikamanu and Shawn Blore to the forward pack, but speedster Charlie Staines is out with a hamstring injury. Aside from Adam Doueihi’s season-ending knee injury, the Tigers are virtually full strength.

TAB odds: Wests Tigers $4.80, Warriors $1.18

Consequences: The Warriors are two points ahead of Melbourne and Canberra on the ladder with games against Tigers, Manly, Dragons and Dolphins to round out the season (and three of those are in New Zealand). They need only to continue their hot form to ensure their first top four finish since 2007. The Tigers are four points behind the Dragons on the ladder and only a miracle could save them from their second-straight wooden spoon.

Prediction: Warriors by 8

Predicted season finishes: Wests Tigers 17th (3-21), Warriors 3rd (17-7)

Sydney Roosters (12th, 24pts, PD-100) v Dolphins (14th, 22pts, PD-94)

Saturday 7.35pm, Allianz Stadium

Last time: Rd 1, 2023, Suncorp Stadium: Dolphins 22 Roosters 18

Recent form: The Roosters have won two of their last three games, including a 26-16 win over Manly last week, but they haven’t won back-to-back games since round 8-9 in what’s been a disappointing season for the proud club. Wayne Bennett’s Dolphins started their inaugural season with a win over the Roosters in round 1 and have been troubling sides ever since. However, they’ve lost their past three games, and seven of their past eight with only a golden point win against the Titans in round 19 recently. They’ve been close though, and their last two losses against the Bulldogs and the Knights have been by a combined three points.

Player availability: Dylan Napa makes his Roosters comeback this week in place of the suspended Nathan Brown. The Roosters have had big issues with injuries and suspensions this year. Sam Walker, Angus Crichton, Connor Watson and Sitili Tupouniua are just some of their stars on the sidelines still. The Dolphins are nearing full strength with just Tom Gilbert and Brenko Lee out long term. Euan Aitken is at least another week away, while Ray Stone is back on the bench after recovering from a broken hand.

TAB odds: Roosters $1.36, Dolphins $3.20

Consequences: There’s mathematical finals chances for both sides, but it’s a must-win for the Roosters in particular with the higher chance of making the finals. A loss means they’re out of the finals equation completely. Even by winning their last four games they can still miss the finals based on their points differential and the results of other teams. To stay alive is to win, it’s that simple.

Prediction: Roosters by 2

Predicted season finishes: Roosters 12th (11-13), Dolphins 14th (9-15)

Melbourne Storm (4th, 30pts, PD+81) v Canberra Raiders (5th, 30pts, PD-74)

Sunday 2pm, AAMI Park

Last time: FW1, 2022, AAMI Park: Raiders 28 Storm 20

Recent form: Melbourne have been patchy across the past month or so, winning one week and then losing the next (against Penrith twice and then Newcastle). They’re coming off their most recent 26-6 loss to the Panthers, and Craig Bellamy’s side haven’t won or lost back-to-back games since rounds 15-17. The Raiders are also something of their bogey side too. The Green Machine has won five straight games against the Storm at AAMI Park. More recently, they managed a four-point win against the Tigers to snap a two-game losing streak, and have won four of their past six games.

Player availability: The Raiders have taken another hit in the backline with Sebastian Kris set to miss the rest of the season with a hamstring injury. Jarrod Croker and Xavier Savage are already sidelined, but exciting rookie Ethan Strange will make his debut. For Melbourne, Jahrome Hughes (ankle) and winger Xavier Coates (hip) have both been named to play to make then near enough to full-strength.

TAB odds: Storm $1.27, Raiders $3.80

Consequences: These two teams are in a genuine race to nail down a top four spot, both with equal points on the ladder. The Raiders have a far less impressive points differential, but a win for either team will have huge ramifications come the finals.

Prediction: Storm by 2

Predicted season finishes: Storm 4th (16-8), Raiders 6th (14-10)

The Raiders can put a huge dent in Storm’s premiership aspirations. Picture: Mark Nolan/Getty

Newcastle Knights (7th, 27pts, PD+74) v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (15th, 20pts, PD-261)

Sunday 4pm, McDonald Jones Stadium

Last time: RD18 2023, Accor Stadium: Knights 66 Bulldogs 0

Recent form: The Knights are on a five-game winning streak with victories against top sides Melbourne and Canberra cementing their credentials. They’re in hot form coming into the back end of the season with a favourable draw, including three straight games at home. The Bulldogs, while out of finals contention, have the ability to upset a few sides in their race for the top eight. They’re fresh off a bye and have won two of their past four games against South Sydney and the Dolphins.

Player availability: The inclusion of Englishman Luke Thompson means the Bulldogs are full strength and ready to disrupt a few teams to finish the year. The Knights have been dealing with injuries all season, the latest being an adductor problem with Bradman Best who has been left out of the team this week. Daniel Saifiti is nearing a return from a quad injury.

TAB odds: Knights $1.32, Bulldogs $3.40

Consequences: This is the first of three home games for the Knights against the Bulldogs, Rabbitohs and Sharks, before facing the Dragons at Kogarah in the final round. They need to win at least two of their last four games to be a chance to make the finals, but three would almost assure them a spot (especially against South Sydney and Cronulla). A loss this week makes every game a must-win for the Knights. The Bulldogs have long been out of finals contention but causing upsets is still fun.

Prediction: Knights by 14

Predicted season finishes: Knights 7th (13-1-10), Bulldogs 15th (7-17)

Originally published as NRL 2023: Breakdown of round 24 games and what the results mean for race to the top eight