NRL 2022: Ladder analysis of 16-team NRL era exposes game’s winners and losers
Should the Dragons have had more success? In a shock finding, they sit second only to the Storm for time spent in top spot during the NRL era, but what does that tell us?
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Craig Bellamy can take a bow. But Parramatta, Canterbury and Canberra in particular might be a bit embarrassed by what these statistics from the Fox Sports Lab have uncovered.
The NRL’s best team of statisticians have gone back and unpacked the entire week-to-week standings for every club during the 16 team NRL era (dating back to when the Gold Coast Titans were founded in 2007).
It has uncovered the most frequent and least frequent positions of every team during this period (and no prizes for guessing which has been Wests Tigers’ most common placing).
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They have also tallied exactly who has had the most weeks inside and outside the top four and eight, and bottom four and eight respectively.
While some of the results might not come as a major surprise, like who ranks last overall, Raiders fans would be shocked at the figure that sits beside how many weeks they’ve spent in top spot over the course of 15 seasons.
The Eels also won’t be spruiking one certain statistic that just might be the least desired on the list, although the Dogs’ time spent in the bottom four is equally embarrassing.
Here’s the best and worst of it.
MELBOURNE
Sweet spot: 1st, 122 weeks
Dead zone: 12th-15th, 0 weeks
Any way you look it, this has been a phenomenal performance from the undisputed benchmark club of the modern era. The Storm have had an astonishing 122 weeks in top spot, which is almost double the next best (St George Illawarra’s 66). Throw in 274 weeks in the top four, a massive 122 weeks ahead of the next on the list (Sydney Roosters 152). In fact, the Storm have only been out of the top eight for 32 weeks all up, and 21 of those were when the club was banished to the bottom of the ladder in 2010 while serving their punishment for their salary cap scandal. Remarkably, that was the only time since 2007 they have been placed in the bottom four. It is also unbelievable they have never been placed below 11th outside of that period.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS
Sweet spot: 3rd, 52 weeks
Dead zone: 8th-9th, six weeks
The thing that stands out in respect to the Roosters is how they seem to have this incredible knack of timing their run like a Bart Cummings’ Melbourne Cup hope. You think of all their success in this period (four minor premierships and three premierships) and yet they have only spent 21 weeks overall in first spot (which is eighth overall). But they ranked second for weeks spent in the top four, and fourth (242) for time in the top eight. All up, 52 weeks in third spot has been their most dominant placing, while six weeks at eighth and ninth is their least common.
SOUTH SYDNEY
Sweet spot: 3rd, 40 weeks
Dead zone: 15th, six weeks
Just the one premiership in this period but the Rabbitohs have been consistently up with the top teams, ranking third for weeks spent in top four (136) and fifth for time in top eight (223). At the other end of the scale the Bunnies rank second behind only the Storm for the least time spent in the bottom four (57 weeks). They have had 25 weeks on top and 13 weeks on the bottom, while 40 weeks in third spot is their most frequent placing and they have spent their least time in 15th place (six weeks).
MANLY
Sweet spot: 2nd, 40 weeks
Dead zone: 11th, nine weeks
Probably don’t get the respect they have earned when you look at where the Sea Eagles have spent the majority of weeks on the ladder going all the way back to 2007. Have had 30 weeks at the top and 40 weeks in second spot, which has been their most frequent placing (just ahead of the 39 weeks spent in fourth and sixth place). Are also fourth overall for time spent in the top four (134) and have the second least amount of time in the bottom eight (128 weeks) behind only Melbourne.
ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA
Sweet spot: 1st, 66 weeks
Dead zone: 16th, three weeks
Most would probably find it a huge shock to see the Dragons second only to the Storm for time spent in top spot (66 weeks), which has also been their most frequent placing over the past 15 seasons. So what’s that tell us? Well, maybe it’s that the Dragons should have had more success than they have if they could maintain their best at the right time of the year. Also rank fifth overall for time spent in top four (118 weeks), seventh for time in top eight (195 weeks), while their least common placing has been last (only three weeks, which is the least of any team).
BRISBANE
Sweet spot: 5th, 40 weeks
Dead zone: 16th, seven weeks
The last few years certainly haven’t done the Broncos any favours, yet overall they have been consistently up with the better clubs, ranking third for time spent in the top eight (243 weeks). That includes 29 weeks on top and 108 weeks in the top four (which is sixth best). The Broncos’ least frequent placing has been last (seven weeks), while 40 weeks at fifth is their most common.
PENRITH
Sweet spot: 2nd, 43 weeks
Dead zone: 13th, 10 weeks
It’s been a rollercoaster for the Panthers. Only six games separate their time inside and outside the top eight over the duration of 15 seasons. Yet that includes 29 weeks in top spot — 22 of those coming in the past two seasons, while 43 weeks in second is their most common placing. The Panthers have spent 15 weeks in last place, with nine of those coming in the year they finished with their last wooden spoon, 2007.
NORTH QUEENSLAND
Sweet spot: 4th, 48 weeks
Dead zone: 1st, two weeks
The glory days driven largely by Johnathan Thurston seem a distant memory at the moment, but Cowboys fans have certainly had their fair share to cheer over the years. It’s actually surprising to see they’ve spent more weeks outside the top eight during this period than in it (199 to 181), while there have been only two weeks at the top. Their most weeks (48) were in fourth spot — although the next most frequent was 15th (42 weeks).
CANTERBURY
Sweet spot: 16th, 48 weeks
Dead zone: 4th, 11 weeks
It’s a bit of a shock and a bit sad for a one-time powerhouse that the Dogs have actually spent more time outside the top eight than in it since 2007 (213 weeks to 167). But perhaps most surprising is that they have also spent more time in the bottom four than any other club (139 weeks), with 48 weeks in 16th spot their most frequent placing.
CRONULLA
Sweet spot: 6th, 35 weeks
Dead zone: 1st, 10 weeks
Rank 10th for time spent in the top four (71 weeks) and are eighth overall for time in the bottom four (105 weeks). They’ve been placed first for only 10 weeks (their least frequent standing during this entire period) and last for 34 weeks, which is their second most frequent placings (they’ve had 35 weeks in sixth spot).
GOLD COAST
Sweet spot: 13th, 37 weeks
Dead zone: 1st, seven weeks
Probably no great surprise to see the Titans come in on this list where they have. Have only had seven weeks on top (their least frequent position), while 134 weeks in the top eight puts them second last overall. Their most common standings have been in the bottom four with 37 weeks at 13th, 35 at 14th, 33 at 15th and 31 at 16th. Not exactly inspiring stuff.
PARRAMATTA
Sweet spot: 16th, 65 weeks
Dead zone: 1st, nine weeks
The Eels would be embarrassed by this but there is just no ignoring what is arguably the ugliest statistic on this entire list, that their club has spent more weeks in last spot (65 overall) than any other team since 2007. At the other end of the scale the total of nine weeks in first spot is their least common placing, and they have had more time in 16th spot than their total weeks spent in the top four (61). The 146 weeks in the top eight is way down on the 234 they been placed outside the top eight.
WESTS TIGERS
Sweet spot: 9th, 49 weeks
Dead zone: 1st, one week
Here’s confirmation to what has been a running joke for years. Yes, ninth spot is the Tigers’ most common placing, and the 49 weeks spent there is more than any other team. On the flip side, they have had one week in top spot which is their least common, and only 38 weeks in the top four compared to 110 in the bottom four.
CANBERRA
Sweet spot: 10th, 53 weeks
Dead zone: 1st, 0 weeks
The only team that has not had a single week in top spot during the 16 team era. In fact, Fox Sports Stats show that the last time the Raiders were ranked first on the ladder was way back in round six of 2005. But it gets worse. Overall, they’ve only had 38 weeks in the top four (the same as the Tigers), yet the 116 weeks in the top eight is also the least of any club, and less than half the 264 weeks they’ve been out of the eight, which is also the most of any team.
NEWCASTLE
Sweet spot: 16th, 46 weeks
Dead zone: 1st & 3rd, five weeks
It’s a good thing the Knights have a rock solid supporter base, because these statistics only confirm what they’ve been through ever since Andrew Johns hung up the boots. Just five weeks in top spot (their equal least common placing since 2007) compared to 46 weeks in last spot (their most common standing). They’ve only had 29 weeks in the top four and 141 weeks in the top eight, compared to 239 weeks in the bottom eight and 107 weeks in the bottom four.
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS
Sweet spot: 12th, 47 weeks
Dead zone: 1st, two weeks
Here’s why the tag the Warriors have worn for years is totally justified. The NRL’s great underachievers rank dead last in weeks spent in the top four (28) and second last in time spent in the top eight (119). The Warriors’ least common position has been first (two weeks) and their most common is 12th (47).
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Originally published as NRL 2022: Ladder analysis of 16-team NRL era exposes game’s winners and losers
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