NRL Finals: Who will win from Eels v Cowboys and Panthers v Rabbitohs
Penrith’s Nathan Cleary and South Sydney’s Latrell Mitchell will decide who wins on Saturday night, Matty Johns, reveals the trick to stopping both men.
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I found this week had me the most nervous, the grand final qualifier.
The lead up to the grand final is one of the best weeks of your life. The whole build-up exciting, our philosophy was rather than try and escape the hype, immerse yourself in it, enjoy it.
But you’ve got to get through this game first.
PENRITH V SOUTHS
Nathan v Latrell
There’s some crucial match ups but this is the prime battle.
The Bunnies must take away Nathan Cleary’s kick time or risk having Latrell’s impact reduced dramatically.
Cleary will be looking to fatigue Latrell through clever kicking. Long kicks to the corners, high kicks where he’ll be tackled on impact, giving Latrell nothing but cul-de-sacs. Taking the edge off Latrell and denying him the room to kickstart Souths’ sets of six.
Strong kick returns are essential for the Bunnies forwards winning the centrefield battle.
When the Panthers are in possession and working their way up field, the Souths defence need to win tackles four and five, so they can get to Cleary and hassle his kick, put him on the ground legally.
How much time Nathan is given on final tackles will have the most influence on the result.
Cam Murray v Isaah Yeo
In the recent past the trend was big, powerful, metre eating number 13s, now we’ve come full circle and the fast, skilful, clever lock forward is the essential.
And Murray and Yeo are the best. The turnaround in Souths’ performance over the last three matches is evidence of Cam Murray’s quality.
With no Murray after the early exchanges in their Round 25 loss to the Roosters, Souths looked blunt in attack and vulnerable through the middle in defence.
Back controlling the middle in the last two matches, Souths are a completely different looking team.
His pass selection is beautiful and his fast feet triggers the attack.
He penetrates with a quick play the ball that gets Cook out and running, which triggers Cody and then Latrell comes into play.
Meanwhile there’s no more intelligent footballer than Isaah Yeo.
Yeo gives the Panthers yardage variation and he gets his fellow forwards one-on-one tackles.
In attack he gives as much direction and pass selection as Nathan Cleary.
In the centre field there’s going to be plenty of smash and crash, but it’s the subtlety and smarts of Yeo and Murray which is most vital.
A strength or a weakness?
We’ve seen upset at this time of the year by teams being underdone.
In the old top five system, the Minor Premiers would get week one of the Finals off and then if successful in week two would enjoy another weeks break before playing Grand Final day.
It was often debated whether this left them vulnerable to their battle hardened challenger.
The Panthers rested their stars in Round 25, before their Finals win over Parramatta which gave them another rest.
Two games in a month
Resting stars in Round 25 made perfect sense, but is another week off ideal?
Meanwhile for Souths it’s been a huge three weeks, two highly emotional games, a win against their arch enemy, followed by last Saturday’s victory.
Their run ins couldn’t be more different.
Who wins?
From Round 1 Penrith have been the red hot favourites and there’s been nothing all season to make me question that.
Souths are a very dangerous proposition. Latrell Mitchell is a giant of the game, if he has a big night, then an upset could be a serious possibility, but it’s Panthers for me.
COWBOYS V PARRAMATTA
Where they stand
Parramatta faced a difficult run into the Finals, unless they finally found consistency they were a chance of missing the eight.
That pressure has brought about their best football, winning six of the last eight and claiming some big scalps.
In Finals week one their 27-8 loss to Penrith wasn’t a fair reflection of the contest.
When Mitchell Moses left the contest with a HIA the game was balanced, the moment the Eels’ playmaker departed, Penrith immediately dominated.
The Eels have worked out what works for them. Power running, short passing and decisive ball movement, rather than finessing and skimming across the defence.
They arrive with prime confidence.
After the 93 minute epic in finals week one the Sharks’ performance against Souths shows how important the week off has been for the Cowboys.
But having a week off can be tricky, sitting, waiting, watching for who your next opponent will be.
While your next opponent enjoys the euphoria and momentum a finals victory brings, you’re going cold turkey.
The Cowboys’ 14th man
A big strength of the Cowboys is this home ground advantage. September in Townsville is pretty hot and very humid.
It’s interesting how the Cowboys have used the conditions during the club’s history.
For such a strong rugby league nursery it took a long time for the Cowboys to fulfil their potential. A crucial turning point was the arrival of the late Graham Murray as coach and the strength and conditioner, legendary torture merchant Billy Johnston.
In the early years the Cowboys trained in an airconditioned gym and used all the latest and best training technology, Billy and Graham stripped all that back. The airconditioning was turned off, the players trained during the hottest part of the day, they went on long, torturous bike rides.
They finally worked out how to make their climate a weapon.
Todd Payten did something similar this pre-season. The Cowboys don’t fear fatigue, they are the fittest team in the competition.
How Parramatta approaches this is a huge factor.
What Parra must not do
Parramatta can’t be frivolous with possession.
If they go out Friday night and force their attack, they’ll beat themselves. It happened in Round 8 in the heat and humidity of Darwin. The Cowboys knew exactly how to play to the conditions whereas Parramatta pushed passes and were belted 35-4.
The Eels need to be decisive in everything they do with the football. The Cowboys play brilliant sideline to sideline football which will run around the big Parramatta forwards.
If the Cowboys get dominant possession they’ll win convincingly.
Who Wins?
The Cowboys with the week off, combined with the hometown conditions and a full house behind them to win.
PARRA FANS HAVE 6,000 REASONS NOT TO GO TO TOWNSVILLE
– Dean Ritchie
This has become the $6000 preliminary final – and it’s likely to leave working-class Eels supporters grounded in Sydney’s west.
The Daily Telegraph can reveal Parramatta fans wanting to make a last-minute dash to Townsville for Friday night’s preliminary final against North Queensland will be forced to shell out a staggering $6000 – and that’s only for 24 hours.
It equates to $75 for every minute of the game.
A Qantas flight to Townsville on Friday morning will cost $712 with a Virgin trip to Sydney on Saturday priced at $879.
The only accommodation remaining in jam-packed Townsville was on nearby Magnetic Island at a whopping $3410 a night.
Ebay has tickets for the match at $162 each while carparking overnight at Sydney Airport is set at around $60.
Food and drink over four meals while away – including expensive beverage prices at the game – will total between $400 to $500.
And return cab fare from Townsville Airport to the CBD would cost approximately $50.
Other options include finding accommodation at nearby towns but then having to hire a car for the journey back into Townsville.
One of Parramatta’s most fanatical fans, Troy Worner, has remained in Sydney due to the cost of travelling to far north Queensland.
“Unfortunately I can’t go because of that very reason,” Worner said. “If it was cheaper, I would definitely look to get up there, for sure.
“But to be there for 24 hours, with those prices, it’s way too expensive. It’s ridiculous and really disappointing.
“When I told my wife (Amanda) how much it was, she said: ‘Nup, you’re kidding’.
“I have two mates who are going. I think they paid $1500 for return flights and are staying in an Airbnb. They are trying to get out of it as cheap as possible.
“I don’t know whether school holidays have jacked the prices up or whether it’s the fact that the airlines know people want to get to Townsville to get to that game.
“Unfortunately the Sharks let us down the week before (losing to North Queensland and ensuring the preliminary final was played in Townsville rather than Sydney). It would have been a lot easier.”
Parramatta has a supporter’s bay set aside but most are thought to be local Eels fans living in and around Townsville.
The 25,000-seat stadium has been sold out.
Eels forward Ryan Matterson said Parramatta fans always back their team.
“The Blue and Gold army, they’re rugby league fanatics. They turn up rain, hail or shine,” Matterson told NRL.com.
“No matter who we’re playing, no matter how we’re going, they’re always in our corner and they’re the loudest fans I’ve ever heard and they’re so passionate.”
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