NRL 2022: How Brisbane Broncos can still make finals after falling behind Canberra Raiders
While their finals hopes are all but over there is still a small chance the Broncos can finish in the top eight, but it will take a final-round miracle.
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The battered Broncos need an NRL miracle to save their season after Canberra’s 48-6 thumping of Manly on Saturday left Brisbane facing a Mission Impossible task to reach the finals.
Queensland Origin legends Cameron Smith and Corey Parker fear Brisbane’s season is beyond salvation, with the Broncos officially dropping out of top eight just a week out from the playoffs.
In a disastrous scenario for the Broncos, the Raiders smashed the Sea Eagles in Canberra — relegating Brisbane to ninth on percentages ahead of their death-or-glory clash with the Dragons at Kogarah next Saturday night.
Given the size of Canberra’s winning margin, the Broncos’ season is hurtling closer to finals oblivion.
Next week’s final round of the regular season is now a desperate shootout between the Broncos and Raiders.
With both sides on 28 competition points, the final spot in the top eight will be decided by the outcome of the Broncos-Dragons and Canberra-Tigers clashes — and the respective winning margins.
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The Broncos (-26) go into the final round with an inferior differential to the Raiders (+17), who leapfrogged Brisbane into eighth spot with their Manly mauling.
If the Tigers upset the Raiders at Leichhardt Oval next Sunday, Brisbane only need to beat the Dragons to play finals.
But if Canberra beat the Tigers by a single point, the Broncos would have to thrash St George Illawarra by 45 points or more to sneak into the top eight.
In reality, the Broncos are set to miss the playoffs for the third consecutive year, a head-spinning implosion after Brisbane were cruising in fourth spot just five weeks ago.
Former Brisbane skipper Parker believes the Broncos squad is “split” and have lost faith in their defensive structures following dismal back-to-back losses to Melbourne (60-12) and the Eels (53-6) ahead of their shot at redemption against the Red V.
“After conceding 113 points the last two games, I looked at their confidence and seeing them after the Eels game, they look like a split team to me,” said Parker, the former Maroons and Broncos ironman.
“It would be great to see the Broncos make the finals because they have done a lot of things right this year, but they look deflated in a big way.
“The Broncos are done. Their season is just about over.
“The Broncos have a problem with their mental fortitude.
“After they were flogged by 60 against Melbourne, there were some Broncos players out on the field smiling at full-time.
“To me, some blokes give a s*** and some don’t.
“Defensively, there is no trust. They have technical problems.
“The difficult thing has been how the Broncos have lost lately, which is the primary concern.
“It’s not just the dip in form, it’s the manner in which they are losing.
“If you lose by six or 12 points, you can have an off night, it’s hard all of a sudden to regain trust in your defensive structures in the space of seven days when you have conceded 113 points in two weeks.
“The positive is the Broncos are playing the Dragons and they are entirely beatable, but how much scar tissue are Brisbane carrying from the past five weeks?”
It is hard to believe that — just 38 days ago — the Broncos were humming along in fourth after belting the Eels 36-14 on Parramatta soil.
Since the CommBank Stadium carve-up, Brisbane have capitulated like few top-four teams in NRL history, leaking a whopping 189 points in their last five matches at an average of 37.8 per game.
The Broncos have received a boost with Queensland Origin workhorse Pat Carrigan to return from suspension for the Dragons clash, but former Maroons and Storm champion Smith believes that alone cannot save Brisbane.
“I can tell you know ... one man (Carrigan) coming back into the team will not fix these results,” Smith told Channel 9 in the wake of Brisbane’s 47-point loss on Thursday night.
“Only five weeks ago they were sitting fourth in this comp, a lot of people say Carrigan isn’t there, so that’s why they’re struggling.
“Kevvie Walters would be bitterly disappointed.
“There was so much on the line for them (against the Eels), now the Broncos have to rely on other results and they have to go to Sydney to play the Dragons and try and muster a win there.”
Brisbane’s lack of energy in midfield in the past fortnight reeks of a team on the brink of mental and physical burnout.
Nine Eels players ran for 100 metres or more in the 53-6 rout. The Broncos have conceded a whopping 3614 metres in the past two games as Storm and Eels forwards rumbled through the middle third.
Broncos coach Walters says it’s his job to stop the rot and re-energise Brisbane players in their last-ditch bid to make the finals.
“I take full responsibility,” he said. “It’s my job to prepare this team and get them ready each week. I take full responsibility, I’m not shifting the blame anywhere.
“We’re all under pressure. It’s the NRL, it’s the same for everyone every week. We aren’t performing well, but we have a week to fix it and get it right.
“I don’t have too many answers at the moment but we have to fix our attitude.”
Parker believes the Broncos must heed lessons from Queensland arch-rivals Cowboys, who have built their brilliant revival this season on a mentally-tougher squad steeled by a punishing pre-season.
“The one thing I learnt playing in the NRL is that you get what you deserve,” Parker said.
“The fix is to look at what the Cowboys have done.
“Todd Payten (Cowboys coach) believed in his approach, hardened up his entire squad and made them comfortable with being uncomfortable.
“Until the Broncos get mentally tougher and change some of their habits and standards, they will just keep meandering along.
“There’s no doubt they have improved on where they finished last season, but even if they make the finals this year, they will just end up cannon fodder.
“If the Broncos end up missing the finals, maybe it prompts the club to consider making some changes.”
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