There’s two NRL games you can punt confidently on this weekend

Punt on the NRL at your own risk this weekend with most games featuring teams that don’t have much to gain. But there are two games that should prove worthy of a punt.

The final round of the NRL season is one to approach with extreme caution for punters as some teams have their eyes on the ball, some have an eye on next week and some have an eye on next season.

The best games to bet on are the ones where both teams have plenty of motivation.

The Tigers and Sharks are playing for a finals spot and the chance to give a club champion, either Robbie Farah or Paul Gallen, at least one more match.

The Sea Eagles and Eels are playing for the right to host the eighth-placed team.

An Eels victory over the Sea Eagles by 11 points or more will see them. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)

While Manly are a game and 22 points clear on for-and-against on the ladder, an Eels victory by 12 or more will see Parramatta host a final against whoever sneaks into the finals – likely the Sharks or the Tigers – while the team is sixth would likely host the red-hot Broncos.

And, with no Tom Trbojevic in the Manly side, betting on the Eels to do just that looks a good way to play.

Just when the Tigers appear shot and gone for the season, they do the unexpected. And that, combined with the Sharks’ golden-point loss to Canberra, has brought us to an eighth-place shootout.

With a finals spot up for grabs, the Tigers ($2) can end Gallen’s career earlier than he’d like or the bookmakers expect.

Easton Wood and his Bulldogs are the hottest team in the AFL at the moment. Picture: Kelly Defina/Getty Images

AFL

THE red-hot Western Bulldogs have been the best backed of the finals teams in early markets after winning eight of their past 11 games to knock down the door to September.

From the moment they went up at $1.80 to beat the GWS Giants on Saturday, the punters piled in with the Doggies looking to make a run at their second flag in four seasons.

All eight finalists had the week off which would have been welcomed by many – but not necessarily Geelong.

The numbers do not lie. In the Chris Scott era at Kardinia Park, the Cats are 0-8 after a bye.

It is not the kind of record which would fill a punter with confidence taking the favourites price about them beating Collingwood at the MCG on Friday.

Collingwood will be bolstered by some big inclusions in what looks the toughest Week 1 game to call.

Richmond ($1.67) remain favourite to beat Brisbane ($2.20) in the final match of the weekend, but there is still some punter confidence around the Lions.

They were not disgraced against Richmond at the MCG in Round 23 and some punters clearly believe that a sellout crowd at the Gabba can lift the Lions.

Lachie Neale is a real chance of winning his first Brownlow Medal. Picture: AAP Image/Darren England

BROWNLOW MEDAL

FOR the past four years we have been presented with the shortest priced Brownlow Medal favourite since betting on the award began.

Nat Fyfe, Patrick Dangerfield, Dustin Martin and Tom Mitchell all strode the red carpet in their victory year at shorter odds than the previous winner. And all saluted.

Finally, we have a count with some mystery.

Dangerfield is the favourite in the Ladbrokes market but at $2.75 looks under the odds given the talent in the Geelong side that could take votes off him.

Lachie Neale has had a standout first season in Brisbane and, like Mitchell last season, is a prolific ball winner who is consistently under the nose of the umpires.

He or Tim Kelly from the Cats look like the players to bet on to be leading at the halfway mark of the season. A market is available with Ladbrokes.

Kelly had a quiet second half of the season and probably won’t win.

Neale is every chance despite not being quite as prominent from June onwards.

Whether he gets votes in his 51-disposal effort against the Tigers in the final round loss will be interesting to see.

The two which present the best value are Carlton’s Patrick Cripps and Bulldog Marcus Bontempelli.

Cripps won the MVP award as voted by his peers, while Bontempelli won the AFL Coach’s Award.

Cripps doesn’t have as many stars around him stealing votes but, until late in the season, also didn’t play in a team winning enough games to help him poll.

Bontempelli isn’t as prolific a ball winner as some of the others in the market, but he is an effective user and a proven vote-getter.

The $7 currently available with Ladbrokes is over the odds.

Tom Brady and his Patriots are again a shot at winning the Super Bowl.

NFL

THE NFL season gets underway with a clash between old rivals the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears on Friday and there are some usual suspects at the top of Super Bowl betting with Ladbrokes.

The New England Patriots are $8 to claim back-to-back Super Bowl wins and there is no doubt that Tom Brady and co. will be in the mix once again.

The Kanas City Chiefs are arguably the most exciting team in the NFL and they are on the second line of betting at $8.50, while there has also been good money for both the New Orleans Saints at $9 and the Los Angeles Rams at $10.

Could this finally be the year for the Cleveland Browns? Browns fans have had very little to celebrate in recent years, but many Ladbrokes punters are optimistic and they have been the best backed outsiders at $15.

Other roughies that have proven popular are the Dallas Cowboys at $23 and the Minnesota Vikings at $26.

SPRING STARS

SPRING Stars is back for 2019.

Ladbrokes introduced Spring Stars last year and, due to popular demand, has returned for the 2019 Spring Racing Carnival.

Spring Stars allows punters to back any galloper in the country to win at least one Group 1, including The Everest, during the 2019 Spring Racing Carnival and really follow that horse throughout their campaign.

Mystic Journey looks to be the heir apparent to Winx’s crown as the best horse in the country and is the shortest price in the Ladbrokes Spring Stars market at $1.40.

Boom filly Libertini has also been popular early and is into $1.90, while Kiwi galloper Te Akau Shark, which is part-owned by Paul Gallen, is $2.50.

Other horses that standout at their current odds include Newmarket Handicap winner Sunlight ($3.50), Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Stakes winner Lyre ($4.40), Peter Moody-owned Mr Quickie ($4.80) and Melbourne Cup contender Finche ($10).

The Chosen One is a good shot in the Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes. Picture: AAP Image/Simon Bullard

BEST BETS

Racing

The Chosen One to win Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes @ $9

The Chosen One is the X-factor in the Ladbrokes Feehan Stakes field. He ran the best closing sectionals in the Australian Derby and he proved that was no fluke when he won the Frank Packer Plate in impressive fashion. He will be better over further, but he has won first-up in the past and he has trialled very nicely in New Zealand.

NRL

Parramatta Eels to cover the line (-1.5 Points) against Manly Sea Eagles @ $1.90

The Parramatta Eels have an excellent chance to end their winning run heading into the NRL Finals. They have won six of their past eight games as home favourites and they are 5-3 against the line in this scenario. Tom Trbojevic is a huge loss for Manly and they could struggle without their star fullback.

AFL

Collingwood to beat Geelong @ $2.10

There really isn’t much between Collingwood and Geelong and the Magpies do represent value at their current odds of $2.10. Collingwood have won three of their past four games as underdogs for a clear profit and they look to have another gear left in them heading into the finals.

NFL

Minnesota Vikings to cover the line (-3.5 Points) against Atlanta Falcons @ $1.91

The Minnesota Vikings are always tough to beat in front of their home fans and they can start their season with a win over the Atlanta Falcons. The Vikings have won and covered the line in five of their past seven matches as home favourites and they haven’t lost to the Falcons since 2011.